Prediction Scorecard: Capital Project Forecasts vs. 2026 Reality | The Risky Planner S2E18

Alberta and Ottawa Agreed on a Pipeline. No One Will Build It. | Risky Planner S2E21

Send us Fan Mail [https://www.buzzsprout.com/2451045/fan_mail/new] Alberta and Ottawa signed a memorandum of understanding on a west coast crude pipeline. No private proponent has stepped forward, no scope has been defined, and the two provinces the pipeline must cross have not agreed to it. Nate Habermeyer and Albert Brier break down why the MOU matters and why it does not yet constitute a project. They examine the two structural barriers blocking a private proponent: British Columbia's consistent opposition to crude pipeline construction through its territory, and the Indigenous consultation requirements no MOU can substitute for. They assess the Pathways Alliance carbon capture project, which Ottawa tied to pipeline support as a policy condition, and what its track record at commercial scale means for anyone treating that linkage as a formality. The episode closes on the pre-scope phase: why bringing the goal rather than the plan to Indigenous stakeholders is the only consultation approach with a different outcome on the other side. Topics covered: 00:00 Introduction and asbestos 01:35 Going west — Alberta and the MOU 03:07 The New York Times Canada letter 04:48 The Major Projects Office and Alberta's exclusion 05:32 Carbon capture: the Pathways Alliance track record 06:11 Alberta separatism and equalization payments 09:58 The MOU: what Alberta and Ottawa actually agreed to 11:21 Why a west coast pipeline makes economic sense 13:18 Why no private proponent has stepped up 14:31 Barrier one: British Columbia 16:47 Barrier two: Indigenous and First Nations consultation 18:21 What Ottawa's MOU actually put on Alberta's plate 20:15 The scope problem — what does this pipeline look like? 23:34 Danielle Smith's response and what it signals 23:50 What should happen next — the pre-scope window 26:23 Inverting the consultation model Read the companion blog post: https://dokainish.com/insights/infrastructure-project-management/alberta-pipeline-no-proponent/ Listener survey: https://forms.office.com/r/KFCi9aiENH Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

Canada Builds: The $2 Trillion Gap Nobody Is Accounting For

Send us Fan Mail [https://www.buzzsprout.com/2451045/fan_mail/new] Canada has committed a trillion dollars in capital investments across nuclear, mining, infrastructure, and LNG. Research on 16,000+ projects says 91.5% of megaprojects exceed budget, schedule, or both — and the overrun pattern in nuclear routinely reaches 100%. Nate and Albert break down why Darlington Unit 4's success does not automatically transfer to Pickering, the Darlington SMR, or Crawford. They cover what politicians are missing when they review project briefings, why Canada has no federal project controls framework equivalent to the US GSA model, and why the definition phase — open right now on most of Canada's major projects — is the highest-leverage window for closing the cost gap before it becomes a political crisis. The enthusiasm is real. The numbers are not. The window to change that is now. Topics covered: 00:00 Introduction: Canada's nation-building moment and the Iran context 01:10 Globalization reversing: Canada's strategic uncoupling from trade dependencies 03:55 Ontario and Canada's capital investment numbers: what's been announced 05:20 The trillion-dollar gap: why announced budgets understate actual costs 06:35 Darlington Unit 4 and the Dokainish PMO connection 08:40 What politicians are actually being told in project briefings 09:10 The transferability problem: why past success isn't a guarantee 13:25 Knowledge transfer between Darlington and Pickering 17:00 Site C, BC Hydro, and the lessons published six months before Ring of Fire breaks ground 18:00 The Darlington SMR: first of its kind, no baseline, no reference class 21:15 What MPs and ministers are missing: three things 26:45 Canada's missing federal project controls framework vs. the US GSA model 31:35 Ring of Fire, Crawford, and the infrastructure interdependency problem 37:00 Albert's four recommendations for decision makers right now Read the companion blog post: https://dokainish.com/insights/canada-builds-capital-projects/ send us feedback: https://forms.office.com/r/KFCi9aiENH Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

The Iran War, Oil Shocks, and What Capital Project Sponsors Should Do Right Now

Send us Fan Mail [https://www.buzzsprout.com/2451045/fan_mail/new] The Strait of Hormuz lost 95% of its traffic in a single week. Oil prices hit $120. Aluminium, urea, LNG, and petrochemical feedstocks are all disrupted simultaneously. Force majeure declarations are cascading from Gulf producers. Nate and Albert break down what the Iran war means for capital project portfolios. They cover the 90 to 180 day procurement lag before repriced commodities hit project budgets, why standard risk registers fail during cascading disruptions, how force majeure propagates through contracting chains, and the three-bucket framework for portfolio triage: accelerate insulated projects, shutter projects that no longer pencil, and replan everything else from the ground up. The estimate from six weeks ago is no longer valid. The market you return to after pausing is not the market you left. Topics covered: 00:00 Introduction and indigenous consultation in Canadian capital projects 11:55 Episode start: the Iran war and capital project risk 16:20 The Strait of Hormuz closure and first decisions for project sponsors 17:30 Enterprise risk vs. project risk: who owns geopolitical disruption 25:44 The 90 to 180 day procurement lag and real cost impact timeline 26:13 Fertilizer, aluminium, and LNG disruptions beyond oil 33:37 Cascading system failures: shipping, energy, water infrastructure 39:50 Force majeure, claims processes, and war profiteering risk 45:49 The wait-and-see trap: why pausing is not a neutral decision 50:51 Interest rates, stagflation, and the financing squeeze 55:04 Albert's one piece of advice: accelerate, shutter, replan Moose Hide Campaign: https://moosehidecampaign.ca/ Listener survey: https://forms.office.com/r/KFCi9aiENH Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

Prediction Scorecard: Capital Project Forecasts vs. 2026 Reality | The Risky Planner S2E18

Send us Fan Mail [https://www.buzzsprout.com/2451045/fan_mail/new] A year ago on The Risky Planner, Albert Brier and Nate Habermeyer made a series of predictions about where capital projects were headed. Mining electrification. AI adoption in project controls. Autonomous equipment risk. Data center energy. Nuclear deals. Mega project cost performance. This episode puts each prediction on trial against sourced data from 2025 and early 2026. What you will learn: 00:00 Cold Open 03:00 News: Belt and Road Initiative hits $213.5B in 2025 construction deals 06:00 China's energy advantage and SMR race 12:00 Mine electrification: market tripling to $10.51B by 2033 15:45 Cogeneration: mining companies become power generators 17:00 Grid stability as a scheduling dependency 22:00 Mining vs. AI: competing for energy 26:00 Autonomous haul trucks: near-zero incidents with fleet separation 33:00 AI adoption: 12% usage, 29% unprepared, 40% price increase by 2027 39:00 AI job displacement: 37% of US companies replacing roles 43:00 Nuclear for AI: Meta signs 6GW deal in January 2026 44:00 Data center growth: 14% CAGR, $3T investment by 2030 48:00 Fiber optic demand: AI data centers need 36x more fiber 51:00 Mega projects: 9 out of 10 exceed budget 54:00 California High Speed Rail: 59% of segment complete 57:00 Advice for project executives on AI-driven planning Key stats from the episode: - Mining equipment electrification: $3.05B to $10.51B by 2033 - Each battery electric vehicle: 600 tonnes CO2 reduction/year, 20% productivity increase - Texas power requests nearly quadrupled in 2025, 73% from AI data centers - Meta: multi-gigawatt nuclear deals signed January 2026 - AI data centers: 36x more fiber than traditional builds - 109 of 302 AI models had price changes in January 2026 - Rail projects: 44.7% average cost overrun - 9 out of 10 mega projects exceed budget The Risky Planner is produced by Dokainish & Company. Music by Thompson Egbo-Egbo: egbomusic.com Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

Capital Project Time Machine: Why Megaprojects Fail

Send us Fan Mail [https://www.buzzsprout.com/2451045/fan_mail/new] HELP PICK FUTURE TOPICS, TAKE OUR SURVEY. [https://forms.office.com/r/KFCi9aiENH] Most capital projects do not fail during execution. They fail when early approvals accept uncertainty that later becomes unmanageable. In this long-cut episode of The Risky Planner Podcast, Nate Habermeyer and Albert Brier revisit well-known megaprojects to examine what information was available at the start, what risks were visible, and what teams and executive sponsors could reasonably have challenged before work began. The discussion covers projects that were large, complex, and governed by formal PMOs. Many ultimately delivered assets now considered successful in operation. All experienced severe cost growth and schedule delay. Key themes include: Why early estimates systematically understate cost and duration How optimism bias shows up in capital project approvals What “first-of-a-kind” risk really looks like in practice Why some risks exist in registers but still go underpriced What executive sponsors should ask at the first decision gate This episode is relevant for executive sponsors, PMO leaders, and project controls professionals working in regulated, multi-stakeholder environments where early decisions carry long-term consequences. Listen to understand where leverage actually exists—and why it is highest before construction starts. Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.