Boom before the Reality Sinks In

The best choice for UK chancellor is probably Rachel Reeves!

“Decisions to secure our economic future are not easy – but they are critical.” Andy Burnham promises the UK a national reboot. Critical to his success will be his choice of chancellor, and the relationship with the financial markets. Rachel Reeves is closely associated with the failed Starmer premiership – but she knows how to do the job and has credibility with the markets. With new leadership she could prove a much better choice than other contenders.  Who will UK Prime Minister in Waiting Andy Burnham choose to be the next Chancellor the Exchequer? It’s the second most important job in the country – the role of national CFO is critical. It requires a competent politician with a grasp of finance, bonds, taxation, project management, and central banking, but it’s likely Burnham will offer the post to secure the support of political rivals with careers spent in politics rather than commerce. Will it go to Ed Miliband, the least popular minister in a very unpopular cabinet, or has it already been promised to Wes Streeting, former Health Minister, in return from him standing down his own premiership goal in return for the job? I have a suggestion for Burnham. How about Rachel Reeves? That would be a bold call. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

The Rule of Law, Trust and Democracy: building blocks of the Economy

Blain’s Morning Porridge June 25th, 2026 – The Rule of Law, Trust and Democracy: building blocks of the Economy “Democracy doesn’t collapse when a ruler lies, it collapses when people stop caring that he lies.” The success of Western Capitalist Economies is founded in the Rule of Law, Trust and competent Democratic leadership. Break confidence is these, and the economy becomes a free for all, with powerful bullies taking all they can while the weakest in society will wither. Is it a film script, or what’s happening now…? LINK TO PODCAST   This Morning’s Porridge is a little late because I went for a swim again this morning. Delicious it was! The heat dome over Europe has been extraordinary – but hopefully it will break tonight. The swim gave me some time to think after Scotland’s dismal 3-Nil drubbing by Brazil in the World Cup last night. So, today, something a little different for the Porridge… One of my guilty pleasures over the last few years has been The Boys - a Prime TV series. It’s curious mix of comedy, satire and visceral gore – lots of gore. It makes a Tarantino movie look like a BBC period-drama. Heads explode and bodies are ripped apart every couple of minutes in the most horrible yet surprising ways imaginable. It is sweary, it is improbable, and its utterly compulsive. It is very funny in an urgh sort of a way. The heroes are nearly as bad as the villains. There are lots of in-jokes and references which is great for nerds like me. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Tech, Space X and the Hype Bubble Economy

“The temperature’s rising, it isn’t surprising, it’s too damn hot.” Are we about to have an Emperor’s New Clothes moment and a return to sane AI valuations? The Tech markets create enormous real value and growth across economies, but like every other bubble in financial history they are hyped to high heaven. In the short run there is money to be made playing the game. In the long run; what is real and what is not matters. The trick is to exit the short-term game before the long run outcomes are apparent to everyone. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Start Up Funding and Maturing Economies

"To move a mountain, start with the smaller stones…” The success and depth of US capital markets to finance entrepreneurs and successive tech revolutions has been extraordinary – fuelling the exceptionalism of the US economy. In contrast, the UK is more risk adverse towards start-up opportunities. That’s largely cultural, a reflection of the more mature, later-stage British Economy. What will happen when the US economy is also past its top, and following the UK into maturity? It feels like a bit of a watch and wait kind of day. The streets are melting in the summer swelter – it’s simply too hot to go to London this morning. The SpaceX IPO has taken a spanking (exactly as predicted), the AI bubble and the debt financing required to make it happen looks poppy, and the market is still digesting the threat of Fed rate hikes. There are times when the best thing to do is simply stop, look and listen, and wonder about the bigger things. Thus, it was that I found myself thinking about the big film of the summer - The Odyssey – the ultimate “Journey” saga. Spoiler Alert: Wiley Odysseus, the King of sea-girt Ithaca, offends the Gods and is punished with 10-years of wandering the Mediterranean, undergoing multiple calamities, before he returns to his wife and (grown up) child, having lost his entire army and crew in the process (and fathering a couple of sons on the way, one of whom will inevitably slay his father in a case of mistaken identity years later.) Last week I was at an event hosted by Looking for Growth (“LFG”) in London, talking about how the UK could ease the funding journey for start-ups. I was there to back up the experience of two successful founders, Chloe Coleman of Vouchsafe and Ben Warner of Electric Twin, with some market context and history. They’ve both led their start-ups through successful funding rounds. (LFG is a cross-party campaign group seeking to reverse decline by promoting growth. They have the good sense to realise it’s as much a societal issue as a simple financing problem.) Today’s founders/entrepreneurs can face as terrible a journey as Odysseus to fund themselves. They have to overcome the barely coherent Cyclops of bureaucracy and regulation, the Giants of Risk Aversion,  the Enchantress sweetly asking them to sell out early or a Funder who transforms your lithe startup into wallowing swine, the lotus promises of money that never materialises, the Siren song of deep pocketed US private equity, and the Scylla or Charybdis of market bubbles and crashes. Even if founders get past the first peril; the definitional seed funding – it might not get any easier on subsequent funding rounds for growth capital if the cruel and pernicious market gods decide to abandon you. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Après Starmer, le rain-shower…?

“The king is dead. Long live the King.” Poor old Sir Keir Starmer. Wrong man in the wrong job. So much hope now squandered. But its important not to over-think or over-worry what comes next. In Gilts there is truth and the 10-year yield is still south of 5%. Andy Burnham needs to prove himself a leader and demonstrate ideas and action. Is that too much to ask?  There is little surprise that Sir Keir Starmer is now expected to resign - setting in motion a transfer of the UK premiership to Andy Burnham, the former Manchester mayor who won his way back into the Houses of Parliament last week. Starmer’s exit is being painted as proof that political instability is now built into the current UK political system - triggering a wall of worry among the commentariat about the Gilts Market and Sterling – what will the markets think of the seventh Premier in 16 years? Will the threat of increased borrowing and spending plans trigger market wobbles? And, how sustainable will the new government be? You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!