Doom Debates

What Dario Amodei Misses In "The Adolescence of Technology" — Reaction With MIRI's Harlan Stewart

Harlan Stewart works in communications for the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI). In this episode, Harlan and I give our honest opinions on Dario Amodei's new essay "The Adolescence of Technology". Timestamps 0:00:00 — Cold Open 0:00:47 — How Harlan Stewart Got Into AI Safety 0:02:30 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™ 0:04:09 — The “Doomer” Label 0:06:13 — Overall Reaction to Dario’s Essay: The Missing Mood 0:09:15 — The Rosy Take on Dario’s Essay 0:10:42 — Character Assassination & Low Blows 0:13:39 — Dario Amodei is Shifting the Overton Window in The Wrong Direction 0:15:04 — Object-Level vs. Meta-Level Criticisms 0:17:07 — The “Inevitability” Strawman Used by Dario 0:19:03 — Dario Refers to Doom as a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy 0:22:38 — Dismissing Critics as “Too Theoretical” 0:43:18 — The Problem with Psychoanalyzing AI 0:56:12 — “Intellidynamics” & Reflective Stability 1:07:12 — Why Is Dario Dismissing an AI Pause? 1:11:45 — Final Takeaways Links Harlan’s X — https://x.com/HumanHarlan [https://x.com/HumanHarlan] “The Adolescence of Technology” by Dario Amodei — https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technology [https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technology] Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Q&A: Is Liron too DISMISSIVE of AI Harms? + New Studio, Demis Would #PauseAI, AI Water Use Debate

Check out the new Doom Debates studio in this Q&A with special guest Producer Ori! Liron gets into a heated discussion about whether doomers must validate short-term risks, like data center water usage, in order to build a successful political coalition. Originally streamed on Saturday, January 24. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:26 — Introduction and Studio Tour 00:08:17 — Q&A: Alignment, Accelerationism, and Short-Term Risks 00:18:15 — Dario Amodei, Davos, and AI Pause 00:27:42 — Producer Ori Joins: Locations and Vibes 00:35:31 — Legislative Strategy vs. Social Movements (The Tobacco Playbook) 00:45:01 — Ethics of Investing in or Working for AI Labs 00:54:23 — Defining Superintelligence and Human Limitations 01:02:58 — Technical Risks: Self-Replication and Cyber Warfare 01:19:08 — Live Debate with Zane: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Strategy 01:53:15 — Marketing Doom Debates and Guest Outreach 01:56:45 — Live Call with Jonas: Scenarios for Survival 02:05:52 — Conclusion and Mission Statement Links Liron’s X Post about Destiny — https://x.com/liron/status/2015144778652905671?s=20 [https://x.com/liron/status/2015144778652905671?s=20] Why Laws, Treaties, and Regulations Won’t Save Us from AI | For Humanity Ep. 77 — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUX00c5x2UM [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUX00c5x2UM] Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Taiwan's Cyber Ambassador-At-Large Says Humans & AI Can FOOM Together

Audrey Tang was the youngest minister in Taiwanese history. Now she's working to align AI with democratic principles as Taiwan's Cyber Ambassador. In this debate, I probe her P(doom) and stress-test her vision for safe AI development. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Episode Preview 00:01:43 — Introducing Audrey Tang, Cyber Ambassador of Taiwan 00:07:20 — Being Taiwan’s First Digital Minister 00:17:19 — What's Your P(Doom)? ™ 00:21:10 — Comparing AI Risk to Nuclear Risk 00:22:53 — The Statement on AI Extinction Risk 00:27:29 — Doomerism as a Hyperstition 00:30:51 — Audrey Explains Her Vision of "Plurality" 00:37:17 — Audrey Explains Her Principles of Civic Ethics, The "6-Pack of Care" 00:45:58 — AGI Timelines: "It's Already Here" 00:54:41 — The Apple Analogy 01:03:09 — What If AI FOOMs? 01:11:19 — What AI Can vs What AI Will Do 01:15:20 — Lessons from COVID-19 01:19:59 — Is Society Ready? Audrey Reflects on a Personal Experience with Mortality 01:23:50 — AI Alignment Cannot Be Top-Down 01:34:04 — AI-as-Mother vs AI-as-Gardener 01:37:26 — China and the Geopolitics of AI Chip Manufacturing in Taiwan 01:40:47 — Red Lines, International Treaties, and the Off Button 01:48:26 — Debate Wrap-Up Links Plurality: The Future of Collaborative Technology and Democracy by Glen Weyl and Audrey Tang — https://www.amazon.com/Plurality-Future-Collaborative-Technology-Democracy/dp/B0D98RPKCK [https://www.amazon.com/Plurality-Future-Collaborative-Technology-Democracy/dp/B0D98RPKCK] Audrey’s X — https://x.com/audreyt [https://x.com/audreyt] Audrey’s Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Audrey_Tang [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Audrey_Tang] Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Liron Enters Bannon's War Room to Explain Why AI Could End Humanity

I joined Steve Bannon’s War Room Battleground to talk about AI doom. Hosted by Joe Allen, we cover AGI timelines, raising kids with a high p(doom), and why improving our survival odds requires a global wake-up call. 00:00:00 — Episode Preview 00:01:17 — Joe Allen opens the show and introduces Liron Shapira 00:04:06 — Liron: What’s Your P(Doom)? 00:05:37 — How Would an AI Take Over? 00:07:20 — The Timeline to AGI 00:08:17 — Benchmarks & AI Passing the Turing Test 00:14:43 — Liron Is Typically a Techno-Optimist 00:18:00 — Raising a Family with a High P(Doom) 00:23:48 — Mobilizing a Grassroots AI Survival Campaign 00:26:45 — Final Message: A Wake-Up Call 00:29:23 — Joe Allen’s Closing Message to the War Room Posse Links: Joe’s Substack — https://substack.com/@joebot [https://substack.com/@joebot] Joe’s Twitter — https://x.com/JOEBOTxyz [https://x.com/JOEBOTxyz] Bannon’s War Room Twitter — https://x.com/Bannons_WarRoom [https://x.com/Bannons_WarRoom] WarRoom Battleground EP 922: AI Doom Debates with Liron Shapira on Rumble — https://rumble.com/v742oo4-warroom-battleground-ep-922-ai-doom-debates-with-liron-shapira.html [https://rumble.com/v742oo4-warroom-battleground-ep-922-ai-doom-debates-with-liron-shapira.html] Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Noah Smith vs. Liron Shapira — Will AI spare our lives AND our jobs?

Economist Noah Smith is the author of Noahpinion [https://www.noahpinion.blog/], one of the most popular Substacks in the world. Far from worrying about human extinction from superintelligent AI, Noah is optimistic AI will create a world where humans still have plentiful, high-paying jobs! In this debate, I stress-test his rosy outlook. Let’s see if Noah can instill us with more confidence about humanity’s rapidly approaching AI future. Timestamps 00:00:00 - Episode Preview 00:01:41 - Introducing Noah Smith 00:03:19 - What’s Your P(Doom)™ 00:04:40 - Good vs. Bad Transhumanist Outcomes 00:15:17 - Catastrophe vs. Total Extinction 00:17:15 - Mechanisms of Doom 00:27:16 - The AI Persuasion Risk 00:36:20 - Instrumental Convergence vs. Peace 00:53:08 - The “One AI” Breakout Scenario 01:01:18 - The “Stoner AI” Theory 01:08:49 - Importance of Reflective Stability 01:14:50 - Orthogonality & The Waymo Argument 01:21:18 - Comparative Advantage & Jobs 01:27:43 - Wealth Distribution & Robot Lords 01:34:34 - Supply Curves & Resource Constraints 01:43:38 - Policy of Reserving Human Resources 01:48:28 - Closing: The Case for Optimism Links Noah’s Substack — https://noahpinion.blog [https://noahpinion.blog] “Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI” — https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/plentiful-high-paying-jobs-in-the [https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/plentiful-high-paying-jobs-in-the] “My thoughts on AI safety” — https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/my-thoughts-on-ai-safety [https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/my-thoughts-on-ai-safety] Noah’s Twitter — https://x.com/noahpinion [https://x.com/noahpinion] --- Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]