Doom Debates

Doom Debates LIVE Call-In Show! Listener Q&A about AGI, evolution vs. engineering, shoggoths & more

AGI timelines, offense/defense balance, evolution vs engineering, how to lower P(Doom), Eliezer Yudkowksy, and much more! Timestamps: 00:00 Trailer 03:10 Is My P(Doom) Lowering? 11:29 First Caller: AI Offense vs Defense Balance 16:50 Superintelligence Skepticism 25:05 Agency and AI Goals 29:06 Communicating AI Risk 36:35 Attack vs Defense Equilibrium 38:22 Can We Solve Outer Alignment? 54:47 What is Your P(Pocket Nukes)? 1:00:05 The “Shoggoth” Metaphor Is Outdated 1:06:23 Should I Reframe the P(Doom) Question? 1:12:22 How YOU Can Make a Difference 1:24:43 Can AGI Beat Biology? 1:39:22 Agency and Convergent Goals 1:59:56 Viewer Poll: What Content Should I Make? 2:26:15 AI Warning Shots 2:32:12 More Listener Questions: Debate Tactics, Getting a PhD, Specificity 2:53:53 Closing Thoughts Links: Support PauseAI — https://pauseai.info/ [https://pauseai.info/] Support PauseAI US — https://www.pauseai-us.org/ [https://www.pauseai-us.org/] Support LessWrong / Lightcone Infrastructure — LessWrong is fundraising! [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eKGdCNdKjvTBG9i6y] Support MIRI — MIRI’s 2025 Fundraiser [https://intelligence.org/2025/12/01/miris-2025-fundraiser/] About the show: Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

DOOMER vs. BUILDER — AI Doom Debate with Devin Elliot, Software Engineer & Retired Pro Snowboarder

Devin Elliot is a former pro snowboarder turned software engineer who has logged thousands of hours building AI systems. His P(Doom) is a flat ⚫. He argues that worrying about an AI takeover is as irrational as fearing your car will sprout wings and fly away. We spar over the hard limits of current models: Devin insists LLMs are hitting a wall, relying entirely on external software “wrappers” to feign intelligence. I push back, arguing that raw models are already demonstrating native reasoning and algorithmic capabilities. Devin also argues for decentralization by claiming that nuclear proliferation is safer than centralized control. We end on a massive timeline split: I see superintelligence in a decade, while he believes we’re a thousand years away from being able to “grow” computers that are truly intelligence. Timestamps 00:00:00 Episode Preview 00:01:03 Intro: Snowboarder to Coder 00:03:30 "I Do Not Have a P(Doom)" 00:06:47 Nuclear Proliferation & Centralized Control 00:10:11 The "Spotify Quality" House Analogy 00:17:15 Ideal Geopolitics: Decentralized Power 00:25:22 Why AI Can't "Fly Away" 00:28:20 The Long Addition Test: Native or Tool? 00:38:26 Is Non-Determinism a Feature or a Bug? 00:52:01 The Impossibility of Mind Uploading 00:57:46 "Growing" Computers from Cells 01:02:52 Timelines: 10 Years vs. 1,000 Years 01:11:40 "Plastic Bag Ghosts" & Builder Intuition 01:13:17 Summary of the Debate 01:15:30 Closing Thoughts Links Devin’s Twitter — https://x.com/devinjelliot [https://x.com/devinjelliot] --- Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

PhD AI Researcher Says P(Doom) is TINY — Debate with Michael Timothy Bennett

Dr. Michael Timothy Bennett, Ph.D, is an award-winning young researcher who has developed a new formal framework for understanding intelligence. He has a TINY P(Doom) because he claims superintelligence will be resource-constrained and tend toward cooperation. In this lively debate, I stress-test Michael’s framework and debate whether its theorized constraints will actually hold back superintelligent AI. Timestamps * 00:00 Trailer * 01:41 Introducing Michael Timothy Bennett * 04:33 What’s Your P(Doom)?™ * 10:51 Michael’s Thesis on Intelligence: “Abstraction Layers”, “Adaptation”, “Resource Efficiency” * 25:36 Debate: Is Einstein Smarter Than a Rock? * 39:07 “Embodiment”: Michael’s Unconventional Computation Theory vs Standard Computation * 48:28 “W-Maxing”: Michael’s Intelligence Framework vs. a Goal-Oriented Framework * 59:47 Debating AI Doom * 1:09:49 Debating Instrumental Convergence * 1:24:00 Where Do You Get Off The Doom Train™ — Identifying The Cruxes of Disagreement * 1:44:13 Debating AGI Timelines * 1:49:10 Final Recap Links Michael’s website — https://michaeltimothybennett.com [https://michaeltimothybennett.com] Michael’s Twitter — https://x.com/MiTiBennett [https://x.com/MiTiBennett] Michael’s latest paper, “How To Build Conscious Machines” — https://osf.io/preprints/thesiscommons/wehmg_v1?view_only [https://osf.io/preprints/thesiscommons/wehmg_v1?view_only] Doom Debates' Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Nobel Prizewinner SWAYED by My AI Doom Argument — Prof. Michael Levitt, Stanford University

My guest today achieved something EXTREMELY rare and impressive: Coming onto my show with an AI optimist position, then admitting he hadn’t thought of my counterarguments before, and updating his beliefs in realtime! Also, he won the 2013 Nobel Prize in computational biology. I’m thrilled that Prof. Levitt understands the value of raising awareness about imminent extinction risk from superintelligent AI, and the value of debate as a tool to uncover the truth — the dual missions of Doom Debates! Timestamps 0:00 — Trailer 1:18 — Introducing Michael Levitt 4:20 — The Evolution of Computing and AI 12:42 — Measuring Intelligence: Humans vs. AI 23:11 — The AI Doom Argument: Steering the Future 25:01 — Optimism, Pessimism, and Other Existential Risks 34:15 — What’s Your P(Doom)™ 36:16 — Warning Shots and Global Regulation 55:28 — Comparing AI Risk to Pandemics and Nuclear War 1:01:49 — Wrap-Up 1:06:11 — Outro + New AI safety resource Show Notes Michael Levitt’s Twitter — https://x.com/MLevitt_NP2013 [https://x.com/MLevitt_NP2013] -- Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Facing AI Doom, Lessons from Daniel Ellsberg (Pentagon Papers) — Michael Ellsberg

Michael Ellsberg, son of the legendary Pentagon Papers leaker Daniel Ellsberg, joins me to discuss the chilling parallels between his father’s nuclear war warnings and today’s race to AGI. We discuss Michael’s 99% probability of doom, his personal experience being “obsoleted” by AI, and the urgent moral duty for insiders to blow the whistle on AI’s outsize risks. Timestamps 0:00 Intro 1:29 Introducing Michael Ellsberg, His Father Daniel Ellsberg, and The Pentagon Papers 5:49 Vietnam War Parallels to AI: Lies and Escalation 25:23 The Doomsday Machine & Nuclear Insanity 48:49 Mutually Assured Destruction vs. Superintelligence Risk 55:10 Evolutionary Dynamics: Replicators and the End of the “Dream Time” 1:10:17 What’s Your P(doom)?™ 1:14:49 Debating P(Doom) Disagreements 1:26:18 AI Unemployment Doom 1:39:14 Doom Psychology: How to Cope with Existential Risk 1:50:56 The “Joyless Singularity”: Aligned AI Might Still Freeze Humanity 2:09:00 A Call to Action for AI Insiders Show Notes: Michael Ellsberg’s website — https://www.ellsberg.com/ [https://www.ellsberg.com/] Michael’s Twitter — https://x.com/MichaelEllsberg [https://x.com/MichaelEllsberg] Daniel Ellsberg’s website — https://www.ellsberg.net/ [https://www.ellsberg.net/] The upcoming book, “Truth and Consequence” — https://geni.us/truthandconsequence [https://geni.us/truthandconsequence] Michael’s AI-related substack “Mammalian Wetware” — https://mammalianwetware.substack.com/ [https://mammalianwetware.substack.com/] Daniel’s debate with Bill Kristol in the run-up to the Iraq war — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyvsDR3xnAg [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyvsDR3xnAg] -- Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]