Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewZj79Ly4Z0] US Weather Update 2:25 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewZj79Ly4Z0&t=145s] US Crop Progress 6:51 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewZj79Ly4Z0&t=411s] Argentina Flooding 10:09 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewZj79Ly4Z0&t=609s] China is Chirping 11:21 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewZj79Ly4Z0&t=681s] Corn Shipments are Strong 13:07 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewZj79Ly4Z0&t=787s] Meal Flash Sale 🌽 Storms, Planting Progress & Global Trade Tensions! 🌧️📈🌎 Radar is lit up across the 🌽 Corn Belt this morning! A large storm system is bringing rain to MN, IA, WI, IL, and IN, with more moisture expected over the next 16 days 🌧️🌀. Recent rainfall has favored parts of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and the mid-South.  🌱 Planting Progress 🚜 Corn and soybean planting is flying ahead of the five-year average! Corn is 78% planted, while soybeans are 66% complete—the second-fastest pace in 10 years! 🏃‍♂️💨 Some states are nearly done, while others still lag behind.  🌾 Wheat Ratings & Spring Progress 🌼 Winter wheat ratings slipped to 52% good-excellent—lower than expected but still better than last year. Spring wheat planting is surging ahead at 82%, beating both last week's and average pace! 📈 🇦🇷 Argentina Crop Concerns 🌧️ Heavy rains are threatening soybean yields in Argentina, the world’s top exporter of soybean meal and oil. With harvest delays and 1.8 million acres still in the field, losses could mount fast. So far, markets haven’t blinked 👀. 🇨🇳 China-US Trade Clash 💥 Tensions rise again: China accuses the US of derailing trade talks over AI chip sanctions tied to Huawei. The warning could undercut recent progress made in Switzerland. 🤖🚫🇺🇸 🚢 Weekly Exports Update 📦 📦 Corn: 1.7mmt shipped, up big from last week 📦 Soybeans: Missed expectations 📦 Wheat: Strong performance, +85% YoY! Plus, a flash sale of 145,000mt of soybean cake & meal to the Philippines makes headlines. 📢 🔔 Subscribe for daily insights & drop a comment with your planting progress or market thoughts! Let’s talk grain! 🌽📊🗣️

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4gYlSHMf6A] US Downgrade 2:53 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4gYlSHMf6A&t=173s] Corn Price Action 4:42 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4gYlSHMf6A&t=282s] US Weather 7:48 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4gYlSHMf6A&t=468s] Argentina Flooding 9:14 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4gYlSHMf6A&t=554s] The Funds 11:04 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4gYlSHMf6A&t=664s] India and Ethanol 📉 US Credit Downgrade Sparks Market Jitters 🇺🇸💥 Moody's has officially downgraded the US credit rating to Aa1, stripping the nation of its final triple-A from any major agency. The move was driven by rising deficits, ballooning interest costs, and a lack of fiscal discipline. While not expected to spark immediate chaos, the downgrade could slowly increase borrowing costs. 💬 Meanwhile, the "Sell America" trade is back: 📉 Stocks ⬇️ 📉 Bonds ⬇️ (rates ⬆️) 💵 Dollar ⬇️ 🌎 Only 11 countries now hold a triple-A rating from Moody’s. 🌽 Corn Market Moves Corn futures slid 5¢ on Friday, with good weather and fast planting keeping prices under pressure. Over 60% of US corn is in the ground, ahead of average. But exports are strong—second best in 10 years! 🌦️ Radar Watch Storms are lighting up the Corn Belt! 🌩️ Rainfall expected in: • ND, SD, IA, MO • Heaviest rain: southern IA, northern MO, southern IL & IN, western KY 🌧️ Moisture could boost crop development in dry spots. 🇦🇷 Argentina Flooding Too much of a good thing? Parts of Buenos Aires saw 6–10 inches of rain! 🌊 Soy harvest delays continue, and sales have dropped to decade-lows. • Soybean meal ⬇️ • Soybean oil ⬆️ (after recent plunge) 📊 Fund Positioning • Corn: Biggest short since Oct '24 • SRW Wheat: Most short since Nov '23 • Soybeans: Funds were light buyers last week 🌍 US-India Ethanol Talks The US wants India to open its market to fuel-grade ethanol. But India’s pushing domestic production and is cautious of foreign suppliers flooding the market. 🇮🇳⛽ 👉 Subscribe for daily ag + macro updates! Drop your thoughts in the comments 💬 #GrainMarkets [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/grainmarkets] #USCreditDowngrade [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/uscreditdowngrade] #Corn [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/corn] #Soybeans [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/soybeans] #Moody [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/moody]'s #Argentina [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/argentina] #Ethanol [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/ethanol] #Commodities [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/commodities] #AgNews [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/agnews] 🌾💰📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvUT5_5pAjs] Soybean Oil Crash 2:16 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvUT5_5pAjs&t=136s] US Weather / Drought 6:39 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvUT5_5pAjs&t=399s] Meat Demand and Ozempic 9:44 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvUT5_5pAjs&t=584s] NOPA Crush Report 12:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvUT5_5pAjs&t=720s] Export Sales 15:10 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvUT5_5pAjs&t=910s] Kansas Wheat Tour 16:53 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvUT5_5pAjs&t=1013s] CONAB Estimates 19:25 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvUT5_5pAjs&t=1165s] SpaceX and Farming 🌱 Big Moves in Biofuels, Drought, and Meat Demand! 🚜🔥 🛢️ EPA Biofuel Blend Drama The EPA just sent a new rule to the White House. 👀 Rumors suggest 2026 diesel blending targets may come in way below industry hopes — and soybean oil futures reacted hard, falling limit down. 📉 🌾 USDA Drought Monitor Update Drought is creeping across key crop states. 😬 Corn: 22% 🌽 | Soybeans: 17% 🌱 | Winter Wheat: 23% 🌾 🍗 Ozempic Boosting Meat Demand? Weight-loss meds like Ozempic 💉 are driving higher chicken and beef consumption, says JBS — folks on GLP-1s want more protein! 🐔🥩 🧼 NOPA Crush Report April soybean crush dipped from March but still hit a record for the month 📊. Soybean oil stocks rose slightly but remain the lowest for April since 2015. 🌍 Strong US Corn Exports Corn export sales beat expectations! 🌽💪 Soybeans and wheat? A bit more sluggish 🐢📉 🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour Surprise Highest projected yield since 2021! Timely spring rains helped wheat scouts forecast 53 bpa vs the usual 44.3. USDA's still a bit more conservative — but things are looking up! ☁️➡️🌧️ 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Outlook Raised Conab raised Brazil’s corn and soybean forecasts 🌽🇧🇷 Favorable rains, big second corn crop, and rising ethanol demand are all supporting the boom. 📈 🚀 Starlink x CNH = Farming Future Precision ag just got a boost! CNH teams up with SpaceX to bring Starlink satellite internet to the most remote fields. 🌐🛰️ Like, comment, and subscribe to stay updated with real ag news that matters 👇 #Soybeans [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/soybeans] #Corn [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/corn] #Wheat [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/wheat] #Biofuels [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/biofuels] #Starlink [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/starlink] #Ozempic [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/ozempic] #Farmers [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/farmers] #AgNews [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/agnews] #Commodities [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/commodities] 🌽📈🛰️

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l67EMf_Vohw] Soybean Rally 1:18 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l67EMf_Vohw&t=78s] EPA and Bean Oil Selloff 3:36 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l67EMf_Vohw&t=216s] Kansas Wheat Tour 6:28 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l67EMf_Vohw&t=388s] Russia Wheat Update 8:14 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l67EMf_Vohw&t=494s] Tyson CEO and Cattle 11:22 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l67EMf_Vohw&t=682s] Ethanol Production 🌱 Soybeans Rally Again! Soybean futures climbed for the fifth straight day on Wednesday! 📈 The July25 contract edged up near $10.78/bu, fueled by: 🔹 A 90-day tariff truce between 🇺🇸 and 🇨🇳 🔹 A House proposal to extend the 45Z tax credit 🔹 Hopes for renewed Phase One-style trade with China But... 🌧️ storm clouds rolled in Thursday morning with lower prices amid EPA uncertainty and crashing crude. Full story below 👇 ⚙️ EPA & Renewable Fuel Standard EPA Chief Lee Zeldin 🏛️ says new RVOs are coming soon! 🔸 Final rule expected in months 🔸 Public comment period ahead 🔸 Push for higher volume levels already underway Still, soybean oil futures are diving this morning 💥, possibly due to RVO delays and weak crude oil prices. 🌾 Wheat Tour Surprises Kansas wheat tour is off to a strong start! 🌾 📍 Northern KS: 50.5 bpa (above 5-yr avg) 📍 SW Kansas: 53.3 bpa 😲 USDA now rates 48% of Kansas wheat as good to excellent vs. 31% on average. But issues like drought and wheat streak mosaic still linger. ❄️ Russian Crop Weather Update Minimal damage from May frosts ❄️ 📉 Only 247K acres affected (10% of last year’s loss) But dry soils now pose the biggest risk. 🌵 🥩 Cattle Market Tension Tyson says herd rebuilding has started. 🐄 …but challenges remain: ⚠️ Drought ⚠️ High prices ⚠️ Limited capital Tyson reported a $149M beef loss last week. Live Cattle futures just posted a downside key reversal 📉 🚜 Ethanol Production Slips 🔻 Weekly output: 1 million bpd (down 2.6% WoW) 📈 Stocks: 25.45 million barrels (still high historically) Margins are improving in the eastern Corn Belt 💵 — see full ethanol charts below! 📊 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe to stay ahead of the grain game! 🌽📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJwOPUY9_cA] US Weather 3:42 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJwOPUY9_cA&t=222s] Biofuel and Tax Bill 5:41 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJwOPUY9_cA&t=341s] Iowa Eminent Domain 8:54 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJwOPUY9_cA&t=534s] US Loses Soy Market Share 10:54 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJwOPUY9_cA&t=654s] China Soybean Import Forecast 12:13 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJwOPUY9_cA&t=733s] Inflation Update 🌽☔ Widespread Rain in the Corn Belt + Biofuels Shakeup, China Trade Jitters & Inflation Update! 📉🛢️🌍 🌧️ Weather Watch: A major rain event is unfolding across the US Corn Belt! Western ND/SD are already getting soaked, with more rain arriving in the eastern Corn Belt by Friday. The next 5-16 days could bring showers to even the driest spots! 💧🌽  🛢️ 45Z Tax Credit Overhaul: Big news from Washington! Proposed changes to the 45Z credit could boost rural jobs and spark biofuel innovation 🚜⚡—but also shake up feedstock sourcing 🌎. Chinese used cooking oil may be out, and soybean oil markets are reacting! 📈 🛣️ Iowa Battles Carbon Pipelines: The Iowa Senate passed a bill tightening rules on eminent domain for carbon pipelines 🚫🛢️. It could slow down Summit Carbon’s $8.9B project. The bill now heads to Governor Reynolds’ desk. 🖊️ 🇨🇳 Brazil Soybean Advantage Continues: Despite US-China tariff cuts, Brazil stays king 👑 in China’s soybean market thanks to no tariffs and a monster crop. US beans still face a 10% tariff, and farmers say the trade truce doesn’t fix long-term problems.  📉 China Soybean Imports Falling: China expects soybean imports to drop 2.8% next season, with domestic production climbing 🐖🌱. Reduced soymeal use in livestock feed is driving the shift. 📉 📊 Inflation Hits 4-Year Low! CPI rose just 2.3% YoY in April—the lowest since Feb 2021! 🙌 Markets rallied, and Treasury traders now expect two Fed rate cuts in 2025.  ✅ Subscribe for updates 💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments 🔔 Hit the bell to stay ahead of the markets!