WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

🎙 This Week in Markets: US inflation ticks higher 📈, putting pressure on rate cuts. Powell's in no rush. Local rates also due end-July. 🏘 China Housing Trouble: 3 years of negative home price growth in China 🇨🇳. Citizens frustrated as property values slide. Evergrande and other ghosts still haunt. Chinese Home prices Year-on-Year | June 2025 🚀 Elon Watch: Musk injects $2B into XAI 🤖. Deck chairs shuffled? Investors seem to approve. 🔩 PGMs Shine: Platinum and palladium break higher ⚪, supported by tightening supply. Miners like Sibanye*, Implats, and Northam bask in the glow. 💻 Nvidia Milestone: First $4 trillion company 🤯. AI + autonomous driving = future. Trump eases chip restrictions. 📦 Copper Tariffs: Trump proposes 50% import tariffs on copper 🔧. Could spark domestic production—or not. 📉 Gold & Oil: Gold drifts within range 🪙. Oil facing resistance again 🛢, needs a breakout above $77 to excite bulls. ₿ Bitcoin Treasury Companies: Why buy MicroStrategy at a premium when you can just buy Bitcoin? 🤷‍♂️ Financial engineering vs. logic. 📊 Strategy (ex-MicroStrategy) holds 600,000+ BTC. 🇿🇦 Altvest has one BTC—also in the mix. 🏛 Crypto Legislation: US considers classifying crypto as a commodity 🪙, stablecoins gaining traction. It’s Bitcoin Week at the White House. 🇺🇸 💸 ZAR & Tariffs: Rand weakened after US slaps 30% tariffs on SA imports ⚠️. Trump’s unpredictability rattles markets. 🧠 Coming Soon on Power Hour: 📅 August: Moxima Gama on advanced charting 📅 November: Keillen Ndlovu on REITs (local & offshore) 🧭 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shift, the global money app 💳 🌍 Travel | 💱 Forex | 🛒 Spend | 📈 Invest — All in your hand. 🎧 Leave a rating and review — every bit helps! 📢 Back next week with more market insights. Simon Brown [http://www.simonbrown.co.za/portfolio] * I hold ungeared positions. [http://www.simonbrown.co.za/portfolio] All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order [https://www.koyfin.com/get-discount-from-a-friend/?ref_id=OkPOCaUd3dgHK16XlMxXM]

Simon’s on holiday in sunny Durban 🌞 but couldn’t resist diving into what might be Trump’s grand economic plan. On the surface, it’s tariffs, spending cuts and tax breaks—but is there real strategy underneath the chaos? 🔹 Trump’s Big Idea: Use tariffs to raise revenue and onshore manufacturing 🏭 🔹 Debt Drama: US debt now > $30 trillion 😬 🔹 Tariffs Everywhere: South Africa slapped with 30%—and so is everyone else 🌍 🔹 Reshoring & Inflation: Could higher costs push inflation up again? 💸🔥 🔹 No Deals Signed: 90 deals in 90 days? 0 delivered 🤷‍♂️ 🔹 Foreign Policy Fallout: NATO, Mexico, Canada—strained relationships 🌐💥 🔹 Cut Spending: USAID, EV subsidies, and soft power eroded 🚫🌱 🔹 Regulation Rollback: Less red tape, but also less consumer/environmental protection 🧾♻️ 🔹 Crypto & Energy: Deregulate crypto, cozy up to OPEC for cheap oil ⛽🪙 🔹 Mar-a-Lago Accord?: A currency + Treasury buying pact that needs allies—who aren't coming 🤝❌ 🔹 Immigration & Performance Politics: Headlines vs. actual impact 🛂📺 💬 There’s a thread of logic, but execution has been clumsy at best. Allies alienated, deals undelivered. The endgame? Likely messy and inflationary. Simon Brown [http://www.simonbrown.co.za/portfolio] * I hold ungeared positions. [http://www.simonbrown.co.za/portfolio] All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order [https://www.koyfin.com/get-discount-from-a-friend/?ref_id=OkPOCaUd3dgHK16XlMxXM]

The Year So Far 📈 * Market returns in 2025 tell a story of extreme volatility rather than predictable trends. * The US 10-year yield spiked above 4.5%, shaking confidence before Trump walked back tariffs. Trump’s Second Term 🏛️ * Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China, and NATO tensions triggered waves of uncertainty. * A 90-day tariff pause ends soon—more volatility ahead. Currency Moves 💱 * The rand hit R19.90/$ in April but has strengthened nearly 7% year to date. * Dollar weakness is driving big shifts—its worst start to a year in 50 years! Commodities on Fire 🔥 * Platinum: +52%, hitting 10-year highs * Gold: +27%, buoyed by central banks diversifying away from dollars * Copper, rhodium, uranium also strong, while coal and Brent oil are lagging Equities: Winners & Losers 📊 Top Performers: * Sibanye Stillwater* +115% 🚀 * Northam, Impala, Harmony riding the PGM boom * Surprise: MTN +58%, defying telco sceptics * British American Tobacco at record rand highs Strugglers: * Aspen -27% 🩺 * Spar, Mr Price* correcting after big runs * Sasol, despite the headlines, down just 5% Global Markets Snapshot 🌐 * European indices are up double digits (Germany +20%, Spain +21%) * Canada bounced +8.5% from April lows * Hong Kong +20% as Asia joins the rally * SA market in ZAR: +30% YTD, outpacing gold and the Nasdaq Key Lessons 🎓 * Volatility is a feature, not a bug. * When markets “go on sale,” don’t panic—buy like you would discounted chuckles. * Politicians worldwide are unpredictable—stay focused on your long-term plan. The Dollar Story 💵 * Dollar Index fell from 110 to 96 in six months. * Capital is rotating to Europe and emerging markets. * The tariff-driven isolationism in the US is reshaping global flows. 🗓️ Upcoming Event Power Hour – 21 July (Monday) Topic: Three Decades of Investment & Trading Lessons with Simon Brown 🔗 Register at JustOneLap.com/events 📈 More Resources * Full ETF performance update dropping Thursday: justonelap.com/ETFs * Read Simon’s market insights anytime on JustOneLap Simon Brown [http://www.simonbrown.co.za/portfolio] * I hold ungeared positions. [http://www.simonbrown.co.za/portfolio] All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order [https://www.koyfin.com/get-discount-from-a-friend/?ref_id=OkPOCaUd3dgHK16XlMxXM]

💸 Know Your Fees: Effective Annual Cost (EAC) * Not all fees are created equal — EAC is the real number to watch. * Applies to retirement products, LISPs, and unit trusts — not to stockbrokers. * 📊 Understand the difference: * TER (Total Expense Ratio) * TIC (Total Investment Cost) * EAC (includes platform + advisor + product fees) * 🍏🍏 Apples-to-apples: Compare funds using EAC. * 🎯 Target an EAC between 1.1%–1.5%. * 💬 Negotiate! Advisor and platform fees are often flexible. * 🔍 Beware: Some brokers refuse to give the number — that’s a red flag. * ❗ Platform fees: Flat > Percentage. Otherwise, your 1% could become R100,000 in fees! 🛢️ Oil Wipeout & Geopolitics * Weekend U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites 🔥 led to… a shrug from the oil market. * 📈 Oil hit $81.40 early Monday, then crashed to $67.70 by Wednesday. * That’s a $14 drop, nearly 20% down — massive. * 🌍 Global market awash with oil: * 🇻🇪 Venezuela, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇷🇺 Russia all pumping through sanctions * ⛽ OPEC+ supply increases kicking in soon * ⛴️ Straits of Hormuz risk overstated — markets unconvinced * 📉 Oil heading to $60? Possibly. ⚙️ Sasol: Much Ouch * ❌ Not a fan of Sasol — never been on that bus * 📉 Sasol collapsed this week: down 14–15% Tuesday * Currently hovering at R96, with support around R77 * 🧪 Chemicals weak, oil down, Rand strong = triple whammy * ⚠️ Not going bust, but it’s in real pain 💱 Rand Rollercoaster * 💵 USD/ZAR down from 18.15 to 17.76 * 🔻 Dollar weakness a key driver * 🎯 R17 still very much in play * 😬 Strong Rand not helping exporters like Sassol 🏦 Fed Watch: FOMC & Powell * 🕊️ No rate change last week, as expected * 📣 Powell grilled by Congress — MAGA heat incoming * 📉 Fed still guiding for two cuts in 2025 * Data outlook softening: * 🏭 GDP ↓ * 📈 Inflation ↑ * 👷 Unemployment ↑ * 🧠 Powell's just doing his job — not playing politics * SA’s MPC, on the other hand… maybe a bit behind the curve ⚗️ PGMs: Shiny Again? * 💬 Chat with Old Mutual: rotating out of gold, into PGMs * 🔼 Platinum at 10-year highs, last seen in Oct 2014 * 🇿🇼 🇿🇦 Platinum from Southern Africa; 🇨🇦 🇷🇺 Palladium elsewhere * 📦 Stockpiles, especially palladium, still working through * 🚗 EVs: Now only expected to be 40% of sales by 2035 * Existential crisis for PGMs? Delayed… for now * 🧊 Recycling paused — not worth it at these prices * 🥇 Pick your poison: Impala, Northam, Sibanye Stillwater*… * 📦 Sibanye with PGMs, palladium & gold exposure 🪙 Gold: Still Glowing * 🧲 Pullback to support around R3,330/g * Could go as low as R3,200 — but not rolling over * 💡 Structural shift in how investors (especially in developed markets) view gold * 🛡️ Post-2022 shift: Central banks hedging against future sanctions with more gold Simon Brown [http://www.simonbrown.co.za/portfolio] * I hold ungeared positions. [http://www.simonbrown.co.za/portfolio] All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order [https://www.koyfin.com/get-discount-from-a-friend/?ref_id=OkPOCaUd3dgHK16XlMxXM]

This week, Simon Brown unpacks the numbers behind a recovering South African consumer, an attractive new renewable energy listing, and the latest moves in platinum group metals (PGMs). Plus, CrowdStrike’s results, Omnia’s cash pile (and SARS headache), and what falling bond yields mean for SA. In this episode: * 📈 Retail recovery? Results from Mr Price* and TFG* show H2 improvement — are SA consumers finally catching a break? * 🌱 Greencoat Renewables (JSE: GRP) lands on the JSE with a juicy ±9% dividend yield. Should you be bidding? * 💰 Omnia shines with strong mining & agri numbers, plus another special dividend — but SARS looms. * 🪙 PGMs on the move: Platinum breaks out, rhodium recovers — which miner is best placed to benefit? * 🔐 CrowdStrike* delivers solid results, but share dilution raises eyebrows. Is it still a long-term cybersecurity winner? * 💸 Currency & bonds: Rand firms as US dollar weakens and SA bond yields drop. What does it mean for investors? Simon Brown [http://www.simonbrown.co.za/portfolio] * I hold ungeared positions. [http://www.simonbrown.co.za/portfolio] All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order [https://www.koyfin.com/get-discount-from-a-friend/?ref_id=OkPOCaUd3dgHK16XlMxXM]