Money For the Rest of Us

The U.S has traditionally been a safe haven for investing, but that hasn't been the case in 2025. We explore three economic and narrative regimes and consider why we may be witnessing a shift after 12 years of U.S. outperformance. Topics covered include: * What was the narrative and economic and financial performance from 1995-2001, 2002-2012, and 2012 -2024. * How the performance of the U.S. dollar impacted returns * Why did economic forecasters predict the U.S. national debt would be paid off in 2011, and why were they wrong? * Signs that the current economic and financial narrative is shifting. Insiders Guide Email Newsletter Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/insiders-guide/] Our Premium Products Asset Camp [https://assetcamp.com/] Money for the Rest of Us Plus [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/hub/] Show Notes Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan Outlook for the federal budget and implications for fiscal policy Before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. Senate January 25, 2001—The Federal Reserve Board [https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2001/20010125/default.htm] Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product—FRED Economic Data [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSDFYGDP] Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Productivity (Output per Hour) for All Workers—FRED Economic Data [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB] Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events by Robert J. Shiller—Princeton University Press [https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691182292/narrative-economics?srsltid=AfmBOopqma1QJN3ZUm6IrFCzXK1qLL3YZL9HyF_JV2EtNIvs52lAAu9F] Donald Trump vs Mr Market by Tim Harford—The Financial Times [https://www.ft.com/content/e7143a09-b280-4fd5-9efe-2d8684b4294f?shareType=nongift] Tourism boycott? Europe travel to US drops in wake of Trump presidency by Talyta França & Alessio Dell'Anna, Mert Can Yilmaz—euronews [https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/04/22/tourism-boycott-europe-travel-to-us-drops-in-wake-of-trump-presidency] Trump’s Trade Offensive Threatens America’s Financial Primacy by Nick Timiraos, Jack Pitcher, and Chelsey Dulaney—The Wall Street Journal [https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/trump-tariffs-us-markets-treasurys-dollar-7d9777d7] Related Episodes 519: Is This the End of Globalization and Free Trade? [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/519-end-of-globalization-free-trade/] 380: How Stories Drive Our Happiness and Financial Success [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/380-stories/] See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy [https://art19.com/privacy] and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info [https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info].

In this episode, we explore what it means to invest in a non-ergodic world—where time, not averages, determines outcomes. We unpack concepts like volatility drag, ensemble vs. time averages, and the implications for portfolio strategy, while also reflecting on how AI and zero-click search are reshaping business and investor behavior. Topics covered include: * What is ergodicity and why it matters * How path dependency and emerging phenomena disrupt the long-term * How podcasting and blogging has changed * What is the future of Money for the Rest of Us Episode Sponsors NetSuite  [https://netsuite.com/david] LinkedIn Jobs – Use this link to post your job for free on LinkedIn Jobs [https://linkedin.com/david] Insiders Guide Email Newsletter Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/insiders-guide/] Our Premium Products Asset Camp [https://assetcamp.com/] Money for the Rest of Us Plus [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/hub/] Show Notes Wayback Machine: jdstein.com [https://web.archive.org/web/20060219212836/http://jdstein.com/] Probabilities and Payoffs: The Practicalities and Psychology of Expected Value by Michael J. Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, CFA—Morgan Stanley [https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_probabilitiesandpayoffs.pdf] The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb—Penguin Random House [https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/176226/the-black-swan-second-edition-by-nassim-nicholas-taleb/] The 60% Problem — How AI Search Is Draining Your Traffic by Tor Constantino, MBA—Forbes [https://www.forbes.com/sites/torconstantino/2025/04/14/the-60-problem---how-ai-search-is-draining-your-traffic/] Hollywood Is Cranking Out Original Movies. Audiences Aren’t Showing Up. by Ben Fritz—The Wall Street Journal [https://www.wsj.com/business/media/hollywood-is-cranking-out-original-movies-audiences-arent-showing-up-cfcf8d75] How Late Night TV Is Downsizing by Alex Weprin and Rick Porter—The Hollywood Reporter [https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/late-night-tv-downsizing-1235997584/] ‘Severance’ Surpasses ‘Ted Lasso’ To Become Apple TV+’s Most Watched Series With Season 2 Launch by Nellie Andreeva—Deadline [https://deadline.com/2025/02/severance-ratings-season-2-apple-most-watched-series-1236294760/] List of most watched television broadcasts in the United States—Wikipedia [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_watched_television_broadcasts_in_the_United_States] Tao te Ching by Lao Tzu (Author), Marc Mullinax (Translator)—fortress press [https://www.fortresspress.com/store/product/9781506469867/Tao-te-Ching] Why AI Might Not Take All Our Jobs—If We Act Quickly by Justin Lahart—The Wall Street Journal [https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-jobs-mit-sendhil-mullainathan-135ad2b7] Elon Musk and the Dangerous Myth of Omnigenius by Gautam Mukunda—Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-14/elon-musk-doge-and-the-myth-of-omnigenius] Related Episodes 492: The Power of Optionality: Small Bets, Big Payoffs [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/492-optionality/] 484: 7 Steps to Living a Longer Life [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/484-living-longer/] 482: Unlocking the Power of Positive Skewness: Strategies for Investing, Business, and Creativity [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/482-unlocking-the-power-of-positive-skewness-strategies-for-investing-business-and-creativity/] See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy [https://art19.com/privacy] and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info [https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info].

What will the impact be now that the U.S. has one of the highest tariff rates in the world? Topics covered include: * Why the Trump administration raised tariffs * How the last round of U.S. tariffs led to higher prices and lower economic growth * Four ways the world remains close to record connectivity * Who have been the winners and losers from global trade * What will be the impact of this trade war Episode Sponsors Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off [https://joindeleteme.com/david20] Insiders Guide Email Newsletter Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/insiders-guide/] Our Premium Products Asset Camp [https://assetcamp.com/] Money for the Rest of Us Plus [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/hub/] Show Notes The economic consequences of Mr Trump – looking for clarity in the tariffs chaos by Neil Shearing—Capital Economics [https://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/economic-consequences-mr-trump-looking-clarity-tariffs-chaos] Tariff rate, most favored nation, simple mean, all products (%)—World Bank Group [https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.SM.FN.ZS] Donald Trump’s tariffs will fix a broken system by Peter Navarro—The Financial Times [https://www.ft.com/content/f313eea9-bd4f-4866-8123-a850938163be] DHL Global Connectedness Tracker—DHL [https://www.dhl.com/global-en/microsites/core/global-connectedness/tracker.html] Objective Knowledge: An Evolutionary Approach by Karl R. Popper—Oxford University Press [https://www.amazon.com/Objective-Knowledge-Evolutionary-Karl-Popper/dp/0198750242] GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$)—World Bank Group [https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD] JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ, GLOBALIZATION AND ITS DISCONTENTS REVISITED: ANTI-GLOBALIZATION IN THE ERA OF TRUMP, NEW YORK: W.W. NORTON & COMPANY, 2018 by Lino Sau—Annals of the Fondazione Luigi Einaudi [https://www.annalsfondazioneluigieinaudi.it/images/LIII/2019-12-001-sau.pdf] FIFTY YEARS OF GROWTH IN AMERICAN CONSUMPTION, INCOME, AND [https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w23292/w23292.pdf] WAGES by Bruce Sacerdote—National Bureau of Economic Research [https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w23292/w23292.pdf] Real Median Household Income in the United States—FRED [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N] Employed full time: Median usual weekly real earnings: Wage and salary workers: 16 years and over—FRED [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q] Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food in U.S. City Average/Median Household Income in the United States—FRED [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=18gMk] Trump’s Love for Tariffs Began in Japan’s ’80s Boom By Jim Tankersley and Mark Landler—The New York Times [https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/15/us/politics/china-trade-donald-trump.html] Related Episodes 515: Tariffs and the Mar-a-Lago Accord: What Trump Really Wants [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/515-tariffs-and-the-mar-a-lago-accord/] 516: What Trump Wants Part 2 – How Trade Deficits and Capital Flows Can Harm or Help Countries [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/516-trade-deficits/] 427: Did the Tariffs Work? The Trade War Five Years Later [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/427-trade-war-five-years-later/] 212: Trade Wars Increase Prices and Poverty [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/212-trade-wars-increase-prices-poverty/] See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy [https://art19.com/privacy] and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info [https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info].

Greg Dowling of FEG interviews Max Belmont, a gold specialist and portfolio manager at First Eagle Investments. Greg and Max discuss the historical, philosophical, and practical reasons for owning gold. Topics covered include: * Where does gold’s reputation as a safe haven come from, and why it trades differently than other commodities. * How gold differs from other asset classes including Bitcoin, which is sometimes referred to as digital gold. * How we should think about gold when including it in our investment portfolios. Insiders Guide Email Newsletter Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/insiders-guide/] Our Premium Products Asset Camp [https://assetcamp.com/] Money for the Rest of Us Plus [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/hub/] Show Notes The Golden Age with Max Belmont - FEG Insight Bridge episode page [https://www.feg.com/insight-bridge-podcast/the-golden-age] Related Episodes 431: The Long-term Bullish Case for Gold [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/431-the-long-term-bullish-case-for-gold/] 316: Paper, Rocks, or Digits—What Makes the Best Money [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/316-what-makes-the-best-money/] 263: Should You Invest In Gold? [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/263-invest-in-gold/] See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy [https://art19.com/privacy] and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info [https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info].

We compare three approaches to closed-end fund investing: Opportunistic trading, the buy and hold income factory, and a systematic approach of selling closed-end funds after 5% gains. We also explore the pros and cons of closed-end funds relative to open-end mutual funds and ETFs. Episode Sponsors Stawberry.me [https://strawberry.me/david] NetSuite  [https://netsuite.com/david] Insiders Guide Email Newsletter Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/insiders-guide/] Our Premium Products Asset Camp [https://assetcamp.com/] Money for the Rest of Us Plus [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/hub/] Show Notes The Closed-End Fund Market, 2023—Investment Company Institute [https://www.ici.org/system/files?file=2024-05/per30-05.pdf] The Income Factory: An Investor’s Guide to Consistent Lifetime Returns by Steven Bavaria—McGraw-Hill Companies [https://bookshop.org/p/books/the-income-factory-an-investor-s-guide-to-consistent-lifetime-returns-steven-bavaria/10069346?ean=9781260458534&next=t] Retirement Money Secrets: A Financial Insider's Guide to Income Independence by Steve Selengut—RIC LLC [https://theincomecoach.net/book/] How to Invest in Closed-End Funds—Money for the Rest of Us [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/closed-end-funds/] Investing in Closed-End Funds Course—Money for the Rest of Us [https://moneyfortherestofus.com/cef/] See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy [https://art19.com/privacy] and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info [https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info].