No hire, no fire?

Tell it to me Strait

Doubts emerge over the U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework after a last-minute cancellation of talks leaves oil traders on edge ahead of a long weekend. With U.S. and much of Asian markets closed for holidays, thin liquidity is amplifying price swings. The yen and SpaceX shares are also in focus. Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here [https://www.reuters.com/newsletters/trading-day/]. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, [https://www.reuters.com/newsletters/morning-bid-us/] and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/] Read more from Amanda Cooper [https://www.reuters.com/authors/amanda-cooper/] and Anna Szymanski [https://www.reuters.com/authors/anna-szymanski/] Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement [https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/privacy-statement.html] for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://nam02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmegaphone.spotify.com%2Fabout-advertisements&data=05%7C02%7CGayle.Issa%40thomsonreuters.com%7Cdeedd17f603f4b360c6d08dd887d4c6f%7C62ccb8646a1a4b5d8e1c397dec1a8258%7C0%7C0%7C638816793925865321%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=wKzcMqK1Jgd8UvIvqngaWQBitV9DjLnzqGz8cs1suDw%3D&reserved=0] to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. [https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/about-us/trust-principles.html] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Warsh and Peace

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh makes his debut with a hawkish hold and a notably short statement, wrong-footing markets that had hoped for a softer tone. Meanwhile, details of the U.S.-Iran deal suggest Iran may have come away with more leverage than expected, even as crude prices fall on Hormuz optimism. And a Manchester by-election could determine who becomes Britain's next prime minister. Today’s recommended read: Gulf exporters' quest to bypass Hormuz will reshape the region, [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/gulf-exporters-quest-bypass-hormuz-will-reshape-region-2026-06-18/] Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, [https://www.reuters.com/newsletters/morning-bid-us/] and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/] Read more from Amanda Cooper [https://www.reuters.com/authors/amanda-cooper/] and Anna Szymanski [https://www.reuters.com/authors/anna-szymanski/] Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement [https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/privacy-statement.html] for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://nam02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmegaphone.spotify.com%2Fabout-advertisements&data=05%7C02%7CGayle.Issa%40thomsonreuters.com%7Cdeedd17f603f4b360c6d08dd887d4c6f%7C62ccb8646a1a4b5d8e1c397dec1a8258%7C0%7C0%7C638816793925865321%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=wKzcMqK1Jgd8UvIvqngaWQBitV9DjLnzqGz8cs1suDw%3D&reserved=0] to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. [https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/about-us/trust-principles.html] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Warsh's World

It's Fed day, and Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair, with markets watching for signals on the path ahead. Oil slides below $80 a barrel as details of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding emerge, while SpaceX briefly overtakes Microsoft in market value following its recent IPO. Today’s recommended read: Is the Iran war just an energy shock - or a turning point? [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/is-iran-war-just-an-energy-shock-or-turning-point-2026-06-16/], Clyde Russell Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, [https://www.reuters.com/newsletters/morning-bid-us/] and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/] Read more from Amanda Cooper [https://www.reuters.com/authors/amanda-cooper/] and Anna Szymanski [https://www.reuters.com/authors/anna-szymanski/] Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement [https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/privacy-statement.html] for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://nam02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmegaphone.spotify.com%2Fabout-advertisements&data=05%7C02%7CGayle.Issa%40thomsonreuters.com%7Cdeedd17f603f4b360c6d08dd887d4c6f%7C62ccb8646a1a4b5d8e1c397dec1a8258%7C0%7C0%7C638816793925865321%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=wKzcMqK1Jgd8UvIvqngaWQBitV9DjLnzqGz8cs1suDw%3D&reserved=0] to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. [https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/about-us/trust-principles.html] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Yen for more

The Bank of Japan delivers a widely expected 25-basis-point rate hike, its highest level since 1995, yet the yen fails to rally and traders keep piling on bearish bets. Plus, Nvidia taps the bond market for the first time in five years, and SpaceX shares keep surging after last week's blockbuster IPO. Today’s recommended read: Oil markets bet Trump would chicken out on Iran. They won [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/oil-markets-bet-trump-would-chicken-out-iran-they-won-2026-06-16/], Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, [https://www.reuters.com/newsletters/morning-bid-us/] and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/] Read more from Amanda Cooper [https://www.reuters.com/authors/amanda-cooper/] and Anna Szymanski [https://www.reuters.com/authors/anna-szymanski/] Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement [https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/privacy-statement.html] for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://nam02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmegaphone.spotify.com%2Fabout-advertisements&data=05%7C02%7CGayle.Issa%40thomsonreuters.com%7Cdeedd17f603f4b360c6d08dd887d4c6f%7C62ccb8646a1a4b5d8e1c397dec1a8258%7C0%7C0%7C638816793925865321%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=wKzcMqK1Jgd8UvIvqngaWQBitV9DjLnzqGz8cs1suDw%3D&reserved=0] to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. [https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/about-us/trust-principles.html] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Special Edition: Iran deal

A U.S.-Iran peace framework sends oil down around 4% and lifts equity futures, but analysts caution that physical supply disruptions, insurance costs, and unresolved leverage questions mean relief for energy markets could be slow to materialize. The deal lands just as central banks in Washington, Tokyo, and London prepare for a busy week of rate decisions. Today’s recommended read: Fragile Iran deal offers oil relief, but Hormuz risks remain, [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/fragile-iran-deal-offers-oil-relief-hormuz-risks-remain-2026-06-14/] Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, [https://www.reuters.com/newsletters/morning-bid-us/] and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/] Read more from Amanda Cooper [https://www.reuters.com/authors/amanda-cooper/] and Anna Szymanski [https://www.reuters.com/authors/anna-szymanski/] Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement [https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/privacy-statement.html] for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://nam02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmegaphone.spotify.com%2Fabout-advertisements&data=05%7C02%7CGayle.Issa%40thomsonreuters.com%7Cdeedd17f603f4b360c6d08dd887d4c6f%7C62ccb8646a1a4b5d8e1c397dec1a8258%7C0%7C0%7C638816793925865321%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=wKzcMqK1Jgd8UvIvqngaWQBitV9DjLnzqGz8cs1suDw%3D&reserved=0] to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. [https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/about-us/trust-principles.html] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]