S2EP63 | Sensex Expiry, And The Fed Turned Hawkish. 77000 Decides | 18th June Thursday

S2Ep88 | Four Days Down, Crude At 100, And The Crowd Is Still Selling Puts . 23800 Is The Line, 23900 Is The Fresh Resistance, | 24th July Friday

Four sessions down, the longest losing streak in about seven weeks, and this morning it got harder. Overnight America's tech sold off, the Nasdaq more than two percent, and Asia, the one part of the world that was bid all week, opened red across the board. The divergence that protected us is gone. And through all of it, crude keeps climbing. Brent is knocking on 100 dollars, up from 92 on Tuesday. Streaming live now on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], free on the homepage. Yesterday's call graded 3.5 out of 5. We said fail to reclaim 24,000 by 10 o'clock and it is 23,961 then 23,900. The high was 23,990.75 and that was it, we closed 23,869.60 straight through both. The band held, the crude and rupee pair fired again. The miss, for the second session running, was the Sensex support line, 76,700 cut clean to a low of 76,151.98. The pattern matters more than the miss, and this episode says why. The close. Nifty 23,869.60, down 126.65. Sensex 76,391.39, down 363.66. Bank Nifty 56,592, down almost one percent. India VIX up again to 13.48. Price down and fear up, four days together. Breadth heavy, 20 up and 30 down inside the Nifty 50, fifteen of sixteen sectors red, only Auto green on earnings. The 28 July chain is where the set up lives. Sellers wrote 51,92,135 fresh calls at the 23900 strike, the biggest new line on the whole board, parked right on top of us. The 24000 wall is still the biggest at 1,29,48,195 calls, but the calls came off and the puts there were dumped, so 24000 is resistance now, not support. Put writers stepped down and rebuilt support at 23800, which now holds 79,09,395 puts. Put call ratio about 0.68, roughly two and a half calls written for every put. Max pain walked down to about 23,900. And we closed just under the options line near 23,900 to 24,000, which means below 23800 the moves speed up instead of settling. The positioning is the story. The professionals are long 28,289 index futures, long 1,39,845 calls and long 1,87,652 puts, and they added to all three legs into the fall. That is a desk paying up for a big move either way. The foreign institutions are net short 2,63,082 index futures and stacking more long puts, but still long 5,47,149 stock futures, so hedged, not outright bear. And the crowd is long futures, long calls, and short 7,69,347 puts, selling 77,000 more of them into the fourth down day. The crowd is selling insurance exactly when the pros are paying up for it. The world this morning is risk off everywhere. Brent near 100, gold about 4,045, the dollar index 101.37, and the rupee at 96.57, about 39 paise from its record low. Crypto flat, Bitcoin about 65,600, Ether about 1,923, no risk appetite to borrow from. GIFT Nifty near 23,710, a gap down open onto the level that matters. The plan is one level, 23800. Hold it and this oversold tape can bounce, but 23900 caps the first push. Lose it and the move speeds up to 23700 then 23540. Friday is not an expiry, so there is no pin, just a clean session into a weekend, and the one trade to avoid is selling cheap puts into two days of open headlines. We also cover the All Cap book, the week ahead into Tuesday's Nifty expiry and Thursday's Sensex expiry, and why crude at 100 is a tax on the whole tape. Education, positioning and the exact levels, in about ten minutes. Free on the homepage, rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Follow @TanmayKurtkoti on X, Instagram and LinkedIn. Sources: NSE, BSE, NSDL, CDSL and SEBI official disclosures only.

S2Ep87 | Sensex Expiry Day, and It Opened at Its High and Never Looked Up | 24,000 Turns From Support Into Resistance | Pros Long Gamma, FIIs Eleven Shorts Per Long, Clients All-In | Brent 96 and a Rupee at the Edge | 23rd July Thursday

Korea was up six percent before lunch, so hard the exchange stepped in and slowed the buying down. Japan was up over a thousand points. By the closing bell Korea was up zero point seven three percent and Japan closed red. The melt up lasted one morning. India never got invited, and it did not matter, because India had a problem of its own and it was a barrel of oil and a rupee. The board. Nifty 50 at 23,996.25, down 191.45. Sensex 76,755.05, down 715.06. Bank Nifty 57,126.80, down 708.55. India VIX up 5.49% to 13.29. Third down session and the steepest of three. Breadth was worse than the headline: only 10 Nifty 50 stocks rose against 40 that fell, 14 of 16 sectors closed red, and IT fell 1.50% while Infosys alone fell 1.99% into its own result, TCS only 0.58%. The market did not sell IT, it sold one company into its print, and that company reports today. But today is the Sensex, because the Sensex expires today, and yesterday's tape shows how it got here. The Sensex opened at 77,384.95, and 77,384.95 was also the high of the day. It never traded above its opening print at any point in the session, finishing 630 points off that high and 114 off the low, in the bottom sixth of the range. The option chains on both indices say the same thing. On the Nifty 28 July chain the heaviest put open interest sits at 24,000, but the call open interest at that same strike is larger at 1,34,45,965, and on Wednesday calls there added 87,30,540 against 46,01,740 puts, nearly twice the rate. That is not support being built, it is resistance forming overhead. The put support then walked down, pulled from everything above 24,150 and rebuilt at 23,950 and below. The put call ratio is 0.73, max pain is 24,100 above the index, and the 24,000 straddle at 309.30 sets a band of 23,687 to 24,305. On the Sensex 23 July expiry chain it is heavier: calls added 2,51,23,840 against 79,44,480 puts, more than three times the rate stacked into 77,000, a put call ratio of 0.57, and a straddle pricing a 496 point day between roughly 76,260 and 77,250. The official participant file makes the disagreement explicit. The pros are long 13,299 index futures, long 69,005 calls net and long 1,13,272 puts net all at once, which is long gamma, sized for a big move without declaring a direction. The FIIs are net short 2,51,704 index futures on a raw 24,436 long against 2,76,140 short, eleven shorts per long, while still net long 5,10,676 stock futures, so hedged long rather than outright bear. The clients are long 1,64,583 futures, long 1,72,273 calls net and short 6,91,782 puts net, the most exposed version of bullish with nothing on the other side. In cash the FIIs sold 819.20 crore and the DIIs sold 418.26 crore, both sides the same day after weeks of domestic absorption. This morning the world has a tell. Asia is green, Japan up half a percent, Korea up another two and a half, Hong Kong up almost one, but GIFT Nifty is 23,864, about 132 points under yesterday's close. Asia is bid and India is offered. Brent is 95.90 and pushing higher, gold slipped to 4,116, the dollar index is 101.04, and the rupee sits 39 paise from its record low. The plan is Sensex first, respect 76,700 and 76,641 with 77,000 now resistance, then the Nifty question of 24,000, reclaim and hold for 24,100 and 24,166 or fail and look at 23,961 then 23,900. Do not carry a position into the Infosys number inside an expiry session. Sources: NSE, BSE, NSDL, CDSL, SEBI official disclosures X / Instagram / LinkedIn @TanmayKurtkoti . rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com] The Tanmay Edge drops every trading day at 8:30 AM IST. Free first on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], then Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

S2Ep86 | The Pin Printed, Then The Pros Walked | 24,200 Turns From Magnet To Pivot | Oil Back Above 90, Infosys And Sensex Expiry Thursday | The Post Expiry Gamma Reset | 22nd July Wednesday

Yesterday was expiry and the chain paid exactly who got there first. Nifty settled at 24,187.70, down 0.21%, twelve points under the 24,200 max pain magnet. A textbook pin. The straddle sellers collected, the option buyers bled theta, and the day never left the range the vol was pricing. In episode 86 we grade that call, read the fresh positioning, and map the new week. The scoreboard. Nifty 24,187.70, open 24,216.05, high 24,262.20, low 24,135.65. Sensex 77,470.11, down 0.31%. Bank Nifty 57,835.35. India VIX crushed to 12.60, down 2.92%. And the tell most people missed: green under a red index. Midcap 100 up 0.30%, Smallcap 100 up 0.53%. A handful of heavyweights dragged the headline while the broader market closed higher. The positioning, pros first. The pros flattened, cutting index long calls from 2,46,822 contracts to 15,596 and holding index futures near flat at plus 5,239. The desk that carried the long into expiry is neutral this morning. The FIIs look bearish on the headline and are not: short 2,28,847 index futures and long 5,08,927 index puts, but also long 5,23,946 stock futures and buyers of 1,650 crore in cash. That is a hedged long, insurance on a long book, not a crash call. The DIIs sold cash for once, 657 crore. The cash roles flipped. The lesson of the day is the gamma reset. On expiry the whole open interest sits at one strike, dealers are pinned, price freezes. The moment expiry clears, that gamma is gone and has to rebuild onto the next expiry, the 28th of July. Until it does there is no magnet. The day after a pin is a drift, not a trend and not a pin, so you do not chase the first hour. The new map. For the 28 July cycle 24,200 is the pivot, stacked both sides with a 1.14 crore call wall and a 95 lakh put line. Support 24,100 then 24,000. Resistance 24,500. PCR 0.92, straddle about 320, one standard deviation 23,780 to 24,600, gamma flip near 24,150. Above 24,200 the bulls hold and gamma turns positive. Lose 24,100 and the air opens toward 24,000. The driver has changed. Brent crude is back at 92.17 dollars and still climbing, above the 90 level that starts to bite for importers and the rupee. Thursday is the event: Infosys first quarter results and the Sensex weekly expiry land together, so IT is the sector to watch after TCS and Infosys closed red and HCL Tech bucked it. Overnight Wall Street closed up with the Nasdaq plus 1.29%, Asia is hot with the KOSPI up over 5%, and GIFT Nifty points to a soft open near 24,114. One number from the book. The systematic equal weight All Cap strategy closed up 0.49% on a day the Nifty was red, and since the 20 July rebalance it is up 1.15% against the Nifty down 0.58%. Red index, green book. Tracked live on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. The plan, the levels, and the full prediction trail are inside. Streaming free first on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Sources: NSE, BSE, NSDL, CDSL, SEBI official disclosures. Follow: X, Instagram, LinkedIn @TanmayKurtkoti. Listen free first on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], also on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

S2Ep85 | The Market Un-Bought Its Own Headline | Axis And HDFC Sold 5%, ICICI Bought Green | Red Index, Green Breadth | Buy The Rumour Sell The News | Nifty Expiry Today | 21st July Tuesday

On Monday the Nifty closed down 96 at 24238 (-0.39%) and the Sensex down 443 at 77708 (-0.57%), and if you only read those two numbers you missed the entire story. Episode 85 is the payoff to Episode 84: I told you not to trust the headline, and on Monday the market didn't either. It sold the exact banks it bought on Friday. RED INDEX, GREEN BREADTH. The red 96-point number hid a green market underneath it. Midcaps closed up, smallcaps up, microcaps +0.61%, the PSU bank index +2.78%, and on the Nifty 50 itself 36 stocks rose against just 14 that fell. An index full of green stocks closed red because the index is a weighted average, not a headcount: two heavyweights, HDFC Bank and Axis, carry enough weight to drag the whole number down while three dozen other names quietly rose. A red headline on green breadth is concentrated heavyweight pain, not a selloff. POSITIONING (Pro, then FII, then Client). Foreign funds sold ₹1,121 Cr of cash on Monday and the domestic institutions bought ₹1,312 Cr and swallowed all of it, the pattern all month. On the official participant data into expiry, the professional desks are net long the futures and the calls but holding real downside puts too, long and balanced. The foreign funds turned a shade defensive: they stopped covering their index short and added a little to it, short the calls and long the puts, while still holding a big long book of actual shares, hedged-long and cautious, not gone. The crowd is long the futures but selling both option wings, usually the wrong seat at the edges. THE PLAN INTO TODAY'S EXPIRY. The magnet is 24200: on the official chain it is the level where the most options expire worthless and the biggest wall of put positions, over 1.3 crore contracts, and on expiry day that becomes the pull. Support is 24200, then 24100 and 24000. Watch where the sellers put the ceiling after Monday's drop: they stacked fresh calls at 24300, 24400 and a big new wall at 24500, so the resistance came down and tightened toward the price, 24300 the first line and 24500 the hard cap. With about 1.4 puts in play for every call, the base case still leans up. The fear gauge fell to just under 13, one-day option pricing was crushed to about 11.6%, and the market is pricing only about 150 points of move by tonight's close. The fear gauge falling, option premium crushed, a 1.3 crore put wall at 24200: that is a day built to sit still, and the gamma picture agrees. Dealers sit long gamma between the 24200 put wall and the 24300 call wall, so they fade every push and pin price back to 24200, the max-pain magnet where the most contracts expire worthless. The overnight then handed us the entry: the Gift Nifty points to a gap-down of about 90 points, opening near 24150, below the magnet and on the 24100 shelf. That is the dip, not a crash. The POV stays buy on dips: buy into 24100 to 24150, target the 24200 magnet then 24300. The one line that voids it: if 24100 breaks and holds below, gamma flips negative into an air pocket toward 24000, and there you stand aside. The rest of the overnight backs the buyers, US chip stocks steadied and closed roughly flat, Korea bounced 2% and Japan almost 2%, and crude held near 88. RUPEECASE ALL CAP. The breadth story from the inside: the 50-stock equal-weight All Cap book closed up 0.74% on Monday on a day the index fell 0.39%, a 1.13% edge and the exact mirror of Friday when the index rose 1.09% and the book fell 1.44%. Rules, not feelings, streaming live on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Streaming first on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Also on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Sources: NSE, BSE, NSDL. All figures official EOD, 20-Jul-2026.

S2Ep83 | FII Sold 4,206 Crore And Nifty Fell 5.75 Points | The Writers Moved Both Lines Up | Reliance Q1 Today, Pros Are Selling The Crowd Its Ticket | 17th July Friday

Foreign institutions sold 4,206 crore of Indian shares on 16 July, the biggest cash sell of this run, and the Nifty closed down 5.75 points at 24,072.75. Episode 83 explains where all of it went, and why yesterday was not selling at all. THE RESHUFFLE. On the official NSE participant book, foreign institutions sold 4,206 crore in cash and in the same session bought 1,994 crore of index futures and 1,308 crore of stock futures, with 2,195 crore of that in Nifty futures alone. Their index futures short came down from 2,62,712 contracts to 2,49,886, a second straight session of covering. They stayed long 5,34,167 stock futures and added to it. Long the shares, short the index. That is a hedged book being re-plumbed, not an exit. THE CORRECTION. Episode 82 read Wednesday's domestic institutional buying of 705 crore, against 2,928 crore the prior day, as a 76 percent collapse in the support under this market and called it sentiment. That was wrong and it is corrected on air. It was mechanical. A large domestic fund book was closing that week and the cash was parked. On 16 July domestic institutions bought 2,986 crore, straight back to normal, absorbing the entire foreign sell. One session of low domestic buying was a calendar, not a mood. THE CHAIN. On the Nifty 21 July expiry, off official NSE closing data, call open interest at 24000 fell by 7,47,565 while writers added 7,55,040 at 24100 and 10,79,910 at 24150, the biggest add on the board. Put sellers stacked support higher too, adding 14,32,080 contracts at 24050 and 5,09,470 at 24000. Resistance up, support up. The 24200 strike now carries 92,22,590 calls, the largest on the board and the clear resistance. The chain settles at 24100. Put-call ratio 0.83. GIFT Nifty at 24,108.50 opens the market exactly on the number the chain wants it to finish at. THE RELIANCE TRADE. Reliance reports Q1 today after the close, roughly 8 percent of the index, and closed at 1,296.60, up 0.08 percent, dead flat, doing nothing into its own result. In the participant book, retail clients are net long 10,94,177 stock calls and added to it. Proprietary desks are net short 5,26,622 stock calls and added to that. The crowd is buying the lottery ticket, the pros are selling it. On the index the pros are doing the opposite, net long 1,26,560 index calls while foreign institutions sit short 2,18,883. Pro long, foreign short. SECTORS. Fourth straight day of the same split. IT closed up 0.67 percent, led by Wipro up 1.77 percent and HCL Tech up 1.66 percent. Financial services excluding banks fell 1.17 percent on 3 advances against 27 declines. Capital markets fell 2.40 percent, worst on the board. Realty down 0.98 percent. Bank Nifty down 0.30 percent to 57,582.25. Money is leaving financials for technology, and the big bank results land over the weekend. VOLATILITY. India VIX closed 12.88, down 2.92 percent, under 13 and the calmest of the run. The 24000 straddle for Tuesday is 270, so the market is paying for a 270 point move by Tuesday and no more, into an 8 percent index weight reporting after the bell. THE PLAN. Above 24,100 moves get dampened and the tape drifts to 24,100. Below 24,050 they amplify. Fade rallies into 24,180 to 24,200. Buy dips into 24,040 to 24,060 only while 24,000 holds, and if we open above 24,120 and never trade back, the dip is void, do not chase it. Sensex closed 77,186.87, flat. Brent 85.07. USD/INR 96.35. Sources: NSE, BSE. Free on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], where it streams first. HASHTAGS #Nifty #Reliance #StockMarket #Trading #Options #FII #DII #NSE #BSE #TheTanmayEdge #RupeeCase #IndianStockMarket #Nifty50 #OptionsTrading #Q1Results LINKS rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com] Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon Music | YouTube