The Circumpolar

Is Russian oil benefiting from the war in Iran?

13 min · 12 mei 2026
aflevering Is Russian oil benefiting from the war in Iran? artwork

Beschrijving

Arild Moe, research professor at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, joins Serafima Andreeva to unpack what the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East mean for Russia's Arctic energy sector. They discuss whether Russia is really benefiting from higher oil prices, why the "Arctic dream economy" looks increasingly fragile, the future of Yamal LNG as Europe prepares to phase out Russian gas, and the growing role of the shadow fleet. Drawing on his recent book with Anna Korppoo, "Climate, Hydrocarbons and Sanctions in the Russian Arctic", published with Edward Elgar, Arild explains why long-distance energy supplies are looking more vulnerable, how climate concerns figure into Russian planning (briefly, it turns out), and what rebuilding relations with Russia might eventually require. Book: https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/climate-hydrocarbons-sanctions-9781035355501.html [https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/climate-hydrocarbons-sanctions-9781035355501.html]

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Alle afleveringen

24 afleveringen

aflevering AMAP and the climate data dilemma artwork

AMAP and the climate data dilemma

For four years, Russian climate data has been nearly impossible to reach. Now the United States is cutting its climate support and stepping back from the IPCC and the UN climate convention. Two of the biggest Arctic states are going dark at the same time, right when we most need to know how fast the climate is shifting. Serafima Andreeva talks with Rolf Rødven, Executive Secretary of AMAP (the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, a Working Group of the Arctic Council), about what that missing data actually costs. Pull Russian measurements out of the Arctic station network and some climate models fall back by 80 years.  They cover the three hardest data gaps to close, why satellites cannot simply fill them, and why indigenous and traditional knowledge belongs next to the science.

16 jun 202619 min
aflevering Japan & South Korea in the Arctic artwork

Japan & South Korea in the Arctic

Japan and South Korea became Arctic Council observers on at the same time in 2013, and they usually get filed alongside China as "Asian observers." But Tokyo and Seoul are not the same actor. Alma Karabeg is writing her PhD on Japan and South Korea in the Arctic at UiT The Arctic University of Norway. We get into what actually drives the engagement (it is partly nation-building), why sustainability is the frame she uses to read both strategies, and how each country handles Russia after 2022. Japan still imports Russian gas. Both had to sanction Moscow even though it does not suit their economies, and both, Alma argues, have a room for maneuver on science diplomacy that the West does not. We finish on the Northern Sea route, Korea's bet on Busan, and a blunt recommendation: European Arctic states are not brave enough about building their own infrastructure or coordinating on what moves through their ports.

2 jun 202617 min
aflevering Italy in the Arctic artwork

Italy in the Arctic

Recorded from Rome, we cover the question of what Italy really wants in the Arctic and how it can achieve it. Marco Dordoni, todays guest, is a PhD candidate at the Università per Stranieri di Perugia, where his doctoral work looks at how NATO's European non-Arctic states approach Arctic security, and a senior researcher at SIOI, the Rome institute that has shaped Italian thinking on international organizations and diplomacy since 1944. Italy has no Arctic coastline and no Arctic territory, but it has held a seat on the Arctic Council since 2013, and in January 2026 it published its first new Arctic policy in a decade. Marco lays out Italy's mix of interests, from the strategic value of a place at the table alongside the US, Russia, and China, to the concrete stakes of Arctic shipping. If the Northern Sea Route opens for longer each year, it could pull traffic away from Suez and the Mediterranean, with real consequences for ports like Genoa, Trieste, and Taranto. We get into critical minerals and the recent Italy-Norway agreement, what Italy can realistically offer on Arctic defence, and why Rome keeps positioning itself as cautious but present. We also cover Greenland, the Meloni-Trump relationship and where it has cooled, the Arctic Circle Rome Forum, and whether Italy actually has a long-term Arctic strategy at all.

26 mei 202630 min