Economic update: RBA to hike as Iran conflict fuels inflation concerns

Chip wreck

Global markets stumbled as AI valuation concerns and Middle East tensions weighed on sentiment, while Australia's stubborn underlying inflation kept the focus on central banks, payrolls and house prices.

Now we wait

Markets pushed higher last week on optimism around a temporary ceasefire, but the Iran conflict has quickly shifted back into uncertain territory. With peace talks failing and the US now threatening to impose a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, risks to global energy supply and geopolitical stability are back in sharp focus. In this week’s Bassanese Bites Podcast, David Bassanese unpacks the escalating brinkmanship in the Middle East, the feasibility of US enforcement in the Strait, and why markets are still holding out hope that rhetoric won’t fully translate into action. He also explores the implications for oil prices, global growth and inflation, alongside the resilience in recent market moves and what the latest Australian data could mean for the RBA’s next decision.

Iran investor update: A vital peace deadline looms, putting markets on edge

Markets edged higher last week on fleeting hopes of de-escalation, but the Iran conflict is entering a new phase. With the US' imposed deadline for a peace deal approaching and retaliation risks rising, the threat to global energy supply remains front of mind. In this week’s Bassanese Bites Podcast, David Bassanese breaks down the risks around the Strait of Hormuz, why energy infrastructure is now in focus, and how a renewed oil shock could quickly shift the outlook for inflation and growth. He also discusses the resilience of the US economy and what recent Australian data signals for the RBA.

Iran market update: Investor jitters persist as oil supply risks build

The Iran conflict remains front and centre, with fragile talks doing little to ease concerns over oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. While some shipments are still flowing, the buffer from earlier supply may soon run out. In this week’s Bassanese Bites Podcast, David Bassanese explains why markets are stuck in a holding pattern, the risk of escalation in energy infrastructure, and how a renewed oil spike could shift the global outlook. He also unpacks mixed inflation signals and what they mean for the RBA ahead of the crucial March quarter CPI report — with another rate hike still firmly on the table.

Iran market update: Strait of Hormuz deadline looms, raising risks of another oil shock

The Iran conflict has entered a critical phase, with a US ultimatum on the Strait of Hormuz raising the risk of a major escalation in global energy markets. Oil prices are surging, equities are under pressure and investors are bracing for a potential spike in inflation if tensions worsen. In this week’s Bassanese Bites Podcast, David Bassanese breaks down the growing risk of a Middle East “mutually assured destruction” scenario, what attacks on energy infrastructure could mean for oil and global markets, and why hopes of a quick de-escalation may be fading. He also unpacks the latest Fed meeting, the pause in the global equity rotation, and Australia’s surprise RBA rate hike — including why another increase may still be on the table despite rising geopolitical risks. Tune in for a concise, expert wrap of the week’s key developments in global markets, oil, central banks, the Australian economy and interest rates — and what they mean for investors.