Inflation's Cyclical Upturn and Exxon's Turnaround

Ceasefire Collapse, Hawkish Fed Minutes, and Pepsi's Flat Pop

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. He assesses the collapsed US-Iran ceasefire and the market's striking calm, especially oil's failure to rally. He then analyzes the hawkish June FOMC minutes, noting inflation risks skewed to the upside and calls for rate hikes. Lastly, Scott recounts Pepsi's disappointing quarter, arguing the cheap, depressed stock is overdue for shareholder-value action.

1. Thoughts on June Payroll Employment Report 2. Thinking About Real Rates and Fed Policy Path 3. the Shocking Performance of the DSA

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with June's soft jobs headline, masking a still-solid labor market that argues against a July Fed hike. Additionally, he notes real rates fell to -50 basis points, the lowest since 2023, giving the Fed room to hike. Lastly, Scott delves into the DSA's shocking primary wins in New York and Colorado, a populist shift worth watching.

1. Core PCE inflation data reveal a troubling trend. 2. Micron (MU) earnings indicate a durable shortage for memory. 3. The implications of an inflationary boom.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with May core PCE, which printed in line at 3.41% but masks a troubling trend higher, as services and accelerating supercore inflation point to a likely Fed hike and reinforce CCP's underweight on U.S. fixed income. Additionally, he analyzes Micron's blowout quarter, arguing the real story is a structurally durable memory cycle, with 85% gross margins and supply sold out through 2028 making memory the new oil. Lastly, Scott delves into the implications of an inflationary boom, framing the pullback as a summer correction while reiterating a neutral S&P 500 rating and 7,420 target.

14 Point Plan, The Fed, and Retail Sales

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott opens with the 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the US-Iran war, signed Wednesday. He walks through the points that matter most for markets, including the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, $300 billion in reconstruction funds, the lifting of sanctions, and roughly $100 to $120 billion in unfrozen Iranian assets. While he views the deal as reasonable but tilted toward Iranian interests, and the 60-day timeline as unrealistic, he explains why the restored free flow of petroleum, fertilizers, and gas through Hormuz is bullish for equities and bonds but bearish for oil, gold, and commodities, where Capital Creek is overweight and rethinking its thesis. Next, Scott analyzes the June Fed meeting and the hawkish debut of the new Warsh Fed. He highlights a terse statement focused squarely on price stability with no mention of maximum employment, nine dots signaling a hike as the next move, and a core PCE forecast for 2026 that jumped from 2.7 to 3.3 percent at the midpoint of the year. Scott reflects on how clearly and repeatedly Warsh committed to delivering price stability, ties it back to Capital Creek's "punch bowl" thesis, and argues that a hard money central banker who is also an adroit politician is a powerful combination and a longer-term positive for markets and consumers. Finally, Scott turns to May retail sales and the resilient consumer. Focusing on the control group for its higher signal-to-noise ratio, he notes the upside surprise, the fifth consecutive monthly increase, and an upward revision to April. He explains why consumers keep spending despite the war, high energy prices, tariffs, AI-related job fears, and generationally low confidence, and what the strength implies for second quarter GDP, second quarter earnings, and the inflation risks now favoring the Fed's hawks.

Following up the Punch Bowl: thoughts from the Morgan Stanley investor conference, Lennar earnings, perspective on the inflation data and the FED

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott recounts the Morgan Stanley Financial Services Conference, highlighting a spending super cycle and dismissing fears over private credit. He then assesses Lennar's earnings, noting a depressed housing consumer but contrarian signals near cyclical lows. Lastly, Scott reiterates his punch bowl thesis amid mixed inflation data.