PAC Stock: This Airport Grew Profit While Traffic Fell — Here’s How

PAC Stock: This Airport Grew Profit While Traffic Fell — Here’s How

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (PAC) Q2 2026 — Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), the Mexican airport operator, grew Q2 2026 EBITDA 8.4% to a record 69% margin and net income 9% — even as passenger traffic fell 5.6% — but the stock was labeled an earnings 'miss' because per-share profit fell ~7% after it issued ~90M shares (+17.7%) to buy full control of the CBX border bridge. The ADR was roughly flat at ~$229, about 24% off its high. How does an airport get more profitable while fewer people fly through it? GAP is a toll road for the sky: 12 Mexican airports (plus 2 in Jamaica) under 50-year concessions with inflation-linked regulated tariffs — so it raised charges (+7% at two airports on July 1) and grew retail revenue 24%, and pricing power overwhelmed a 5.6% traffic dip. The 'miss' was optical: total profit rose 9%, but the CBX acquisition diluted per-share earnings. And the traffic softness is one-offs (Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica, a strong peso, World Cup distortions) — Guadalajara actually grew 4.6%. It's a wonderful, bond-like asset (69% margins, 18.7% ROIC, 0.25 beta, ~5% yield) — but the priciest of the three Mexican airport groups. Our call: a constructive HOLD, fair value ~$250, and if you want the theme cheaper, ASUR trades at 9x EBITDA with a 7% yield. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A TOLL ROAD WITH A RUNWAY, AT A FULL PRICE) — base-case value ~$250 vs ~$229 today. What to watch: passenger traffic inflecting positive as the hurricane and World Cup distortions clear, the tariff ramp toward the maximum allowed rate, and the valuation gap to cheaper peer ASUR Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

ANGO Stock: AngioDynamics Jumped 11% — Because Medicare Said Yes

AngioDynamics (ANGO) Q4 FY2026 — AngioDynamics beat on its fiscal Q4 (revenue $86.6M, +8%; adjusted loss of $0.07, 4 cents better than feared), grew full-year Med Tech 18%, and guided FY27 revenue above consensus. The stock jumped ~11% to a 52-week high, led by NanoKnife (+64.5%) as Medicare coverage for its prostate-ablation therapy went live July 5. AngioDynamics quietly reinvented itself: it sold its low-margin legacy lines and rebuilt around two growth platforms, and the star is NanoKnife — which destroys prostate tumors with electricity (a focal therapy that spares patients the incontinence/impotence risks of surgery or radiation). The catalyst just completed: FDA clearance (2024), billing codes live (Jan 1), and Medicare coverage effective July 5. NanoKnife grew 64.5% with capital placements up 132% — every machine placed is a razor that sells disposable probes for years. At ~1.7x sales, debt-free, the valuation is reasonable and the catalyst is only days old. But it just popped 11% to a 52-week high and more than half the company barely grows. A SPECULATIVE BUY — real catalyst, mind the entry. Fair value ~$18. THE CALL: SPECULATIVE BUY (3/5, REAL CATALYST, MIND THE ENTRY) — base-case value ~$18 vs ~$14.43 today. What to watch: disposable-probe (utilization) revenue accelerating in the quarters after the 132% jump in machine placements and the July 5 Medicare coverage, the Med Device drag on blended growth, and the path to GAAP profitability Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

PXED Stock: University of Phoenix Trades at 7x Earnings — and Fears One Number

Phoenix Education Partners (PXED) Q3 FY2026 — Phoenix Education Partners (parent of the University of Phoenix) reported flat Q3 revenue of $271.8M, beat on adjusted EPS at $1.43, but cut its full-year revenue guide and saw margins compress — blaming AI-powered search for disrupting its student-recruitment funnel. The stock fell ~9.5% to ~$31. The single number that governs this stock: 88.6% of Phoenix's revenue comes from federal financial aid, and a law (the 90/10 Rule) caps that at 90%. It earns 28% margins sitting 1.4 points from a cliff its own filing says could make the business 'unsustainable.' That's why a debt-free cash machine with $269M of cash trades at ~7x forward earnings. Two twists: the reason it fell (AI-powered search breaking the enrollment funnel — one of the first companies where you can point to a P&L line moving because of how people use AI), and the tailwind nobody's pricing (the June 29 repeal of Gainful Employment, the rule built to punish for-profit colleges). Cheap, with an ignored tailwind and real tail risk — a SPECULATIVE BUY, fair value ~$40. THE CALL: SPECULATIVE BUY (3/5, CHEAP, WITH AN IGNORED TAILWIND) — base-case value ~$40 vs ~$31.29 today. What to watch: the enrollment funnel stabilizing as marketing adapts to AI search, the 90/10 percentage holding well below 90%, and whether Apollo floods the tiny float with a secondary Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

ERIC Stock: Ericsson Beat on Profit and Fell 13% — Blame AI

Ericsson (ERIC) Q2 2026 — Ericsson's Q2 2026 adjusted gross margin rose to 48.4% (Networks 50.4%, a multi-year high) and EPS met consensus, but the ADR fell ~13% — its worst earnings reaction in three years — after management warned that AI-driven memory and component cost inflation will squeeze Q3 Networks margins to 48-50%, revenue came in light, and North America declined. Ericsson beat on profit and got hammered. The reason is a genuine irony: the same AI boom that underpins its long-term bull case (more data means more network spending) is bidding up the memory and chips inside its own radios, right now. So the demand is a later story and the cost is a now story, and the market repriced for the gap. But underneath: a real margin turnaround (48.4% adjusted, Networks at 50.4%), $6.2B of net cash (a fifth of the market cap), a ~3% dividend, and a ~13x P/E. After a 13% drop, that looks oversold. Our call: a SPECULATIVE BUY, fair value ~$11.50 — and we're MORE constructive than the bearish Street, whose targets sit right around the price. THE CALL: SPECULATIVE BUY (3/5, A CHEAP TURNAROUND THE MARKET OVERSOLD) — base-case value ~$11.50 vs ~$10.10 today. What to watch: Q3 gross margin holding at the high end of the 48-50% guide (proving the AI-cost hit is contained), North America stabilizing, and the memory-cost inflation staying a couple of quarters rather than a multi-year headwind Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

FAST Stock: Fastenal Is a Wonderful Business — But Is It a Buy at This Price?

Fastenal Company (FAST) Q2 2026 — Fastenal grew Q2 2026 revenue 14.7% to $2.39B with daily sales up 14.7%, but EPS of $0.33 only met consensus, gross margin fell 75bps to 44.6% on tariff costs, and it trimmed two full-year targets. The stock slipped ~2.2% to ~$44.75. Nobody disputes Fastenal is a wonderful business — 31% return on capital, a genuine vending-machine and Onsite moat, a fortress balance sheet, and a growing dividend. The question is the price. At ~34x forward earnings for what's really a ~10% compounder (about 290bps of the 14.7% growth was tariff pricing, not volume), even a generous owner-earnings DCF lands around $42 — below the $44.75 price and below the Street's $47.67 average. Margins are squeezed by tariffs with no recovery guided for H2, and the CEO handed off to a successor two days after the print. A wonderful business at a full price. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A WONDERFUL BUSINESS AT A FULL PRICE) — base-case value ~$42 vs ~$44.75 today. What to watch: price-cost (margin) turning positive as tariffs settle, the digital-footprint mix re-accelerating past the trimmed target, and the CEO transition from Florness to Watts Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.