Off to the Races

Off to the Races

There are just 106 days until the November election and we have seen no shortage of drama-fueled shakeups. We were so pleased to welcome Erin Covey [https://open.substack.com/users/5906129-erin-covey?utm_source=mentions] of The Cook Political Report [https://open.substack.com/users/251414734-the-cook-political-report?utm_source=mentions] for a deep dive into the 2026 midterm battleground races. Erin’s focus is typically the House, but she could have fooled us with her comprehensive and nuanced knowledge about the Senate map. She lays out Democrats' top defensive priorities in Georgia and Michigan to pickup targets in North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, and Ohio. We cover the Democrats’ “white whale” race in Texas, Iowa's Turek-Hinson race, and the wildcard role of independent candidates like Montana's Seth Bodnar and Nebraska's Dan Osborne. On the House side, Erin lays out why redistricting has reshaped the battleground, and which toss-up seats matter most. While the Democrats are favored to retake the majority, Erin explains why it’s not a foregone conclusion. To dig further into the races, the recent ratings changes, and more analysis from Erin, head to The Cook Political Report ratings page [https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings]!

Can We Afford This?

JT & MG sit down with Rep. Sean Casten (D-IL), a member of the House Financial Services Committee, to dig into a new report from Climate Power and the Center for American Progress on the rising cost of living. Casten, who spent 20 years in the energy industry before Congress, breaks down why natural gas prices are spiking, how blocking cheap renewable energy is driving up bills, and why Democrats need to talk about energy costs more, not less. On Monday, we’ll have a live conversation with the Cook Political Report's Erin Covey [https://open.substack.com/users/5906129-erin-covey?utm_source=mentions] about the midterm landscape. Let us know which races you want us to dig into!

Ding Him $1,000 a Day

Attorney, journalist, and friend Katie Phang joins Grounded for an update on her ongoing legal fight against the DOJ after acting AG Todd Blanche essentially defied the court order to comply with the Epstein Files Transparency Act. This all comes days before an expected Blanche confirmation battle in the Senate. “So literally hot off the presses, I just filed this response,” Phang said. “And my response calls [Blanche] out for violating the judge’s order, not to mention still as of today, July 13th, 2026, still violating the federal law, the Epstein Files Transparency Act as he’s on the eve of his confirmation hearing in Senate Judiciary. And what I do is I ask the judge to fine him $1,000 a day until he complies. Him, not the Department of Justice, but Todd Blanche.” We also discuss headlines including the latest ICE involved fatal shooting in Maine and a new court ruling that recommends disciplinary action for Blanche and others for their involvement in the Trump IRS settlement slush fund move. We can’t let the episode end without some combine talk and another invitation to bring Katie to Big Sky Country.

The United States of Algorithms

JT & MG have a candid conversation with Rich Logis, founder of the nonprofit Leaving MAGA and author of the memoir One Betrayal Too Many. Logis is a former die-hard MAGA pundit, campaign volunteer, and donor. He talks about his break from the movement in 2022 and how it started with a simple idea: diversifying his news sources. Logis discusses what works to move people, what he calls an addiction to rage and fear, and what it takes to repair relationships. Plus, why he predicts an electoral revolt in November.

Reactive Mode

We always gain so much valuable perspective from David Becker, co-founder and executive director for the Center for Election Innovation and Research. He joins us again to break down myriad questions revolving around the upcoming midterm elections. We tackle the Supreme Court's 5-4 ruling about counting mail-in ballots that arrive after Election Day, including unpacking why the RNC sued deep-red Mississippi over the law. Why wouldn’t lawmakers just change the law in the state dominated by the GOP? We also dig into the president’s persistent obsession with the 2020 results and passing the Save America Act, which Becker says will never happen. “At the core of all of the false claims is the idea that Democrats somehow out of power in 2020, in the middle of a global pandemic, with President Trump controlling the entire federal government, managed the greatest conspiracy in world history to steal an election from him and that nobody was talking,” Becker said. “And then four years later, while those same Democrats held all of that power of the federal government, They forgot to do it again. That’s how ridiculous all of this is.” Plus, Becker lays out his idea on how we can get record midterm voter turnout this November.