Capitalism's Final Boss: Will Warsh Bend To Iran, Inflation, And the Bond Market, Or To Trump?

Will The Real Kevin Warsh Please Stand Up

The entire financial world revolved around one question yesterday: Which version of Trump’s new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, was going to show up at his first Fed meeting? OG Inflation Hawk Kevin Warsh?OrThe guy who was willing to say whatever Trump wanted to hear to give him the job? To Democratic strategist Kobi Tirey’s shock, it was the latter. Kobi actually had some nice things to say about Trump’s new Fed Chair for once. But even if Kobi liked what he heard, Banker Bill wasn’t impressed. Warsh’s “no forward guidance” policy means his presentation was also light in substance, and inflation is still too damn high. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com [https://kobitirey.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Trump’s Economic Id: A Trade War Check Up With WSJ’s Gavin Bade

We invited Wall Street Journal trade reporter Gavin Bade back to do a postmortem on the trade war. His answer: it’s not over. New tariffs are coming in late July — more legally durable than before, covering almost every US trading partner, and framed around forced labor and Chinese industrial overcapacity. The kind of thing that’s hard to argue against without sounding like you support slavery. Gavin breaks down why Jamieson Greer has quietly become the most powerful person in US trade policy, why Lutnick has been pushed to the side, and why the administration’s biggest reversal — on China — tells you everything about how they operate when they can’t coerce someone. Plus: Is the AI bubble about to pop and are all these IPOs the insiders cashing out before people notice? Credit card delinquencies, car repos, and why the stock market’s gains are masking a deteriorating picture for the middle 80%. And the data center question Democrats are fumbling — with a closing argument from Kobi on the window that’s rapidly closing. Is It Bad for the Economy? is the podcast where a Democratic strategist, an anonymous Wall Street banker, and occasionally a very good journalist try to figure out who’s actually winning and losing in this economy. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com [https://kobitirey.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Is the SpaceX IPO a Wealth Transfer? Plus: Your Electric Bill Since ChatGPT.

Your 401k is about to become exit liquidity for SpaceX insiders — and your electric bill is already 19% higher since ChatGPT launched. Democratic strategist Kobi Tirey and anonymous Wall Street banker Bill break down the SpaceX IPO, what Tesla’s valuation actually means, and the inflation data nobody’s framing correctly: strip out energy and prices are fine. Put energy back in and you can see exactly who’s responsible. Also: why is Jeff Bezos suddenly so friendly with Trump? We have a theory. Plus a look at the electricity price chart that should be front-page news — 30% up in five years from a boring utility, and it’s only going higher. Is It Bad for the Economy? is the podcast where a Democratic strategist and an anonymous Wall Street insider agree on more than you’d expect. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com [https://kobitirey.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Capitalism's Final Boss: Will Warsh Bend To Iran, Inflation, And the Bond Market, Or To Trump?

The bond market has done what the media, the courts, and Congress couldn't — slow Trump down. Kobi and Banker Bill break down why 5% on the 30-year treasury is the magic number, what the Iran conflict means for gas prices, and whether new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will listen to Wall Street or the White House. Plus: Trump's 60 trades a day, the DoorDash pump-and-dump, and why Howard Lutnick apparently got a very good return on his $5 million. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com [https://kobitirey.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Did Biden Kill Spirit Airlines? Antitrust, Inflation & the K-Shaped Economy

One of my firmest held believes is that TSA Pre-Check is a scam perpetrated by Big Hudson News to sell more overpriced health snacks. If you think I feel validated by Trump’s disastrous economic performance, it’s nothing compared to the pure joy I felt when they announced you could keep your shoes on in regular security. I have an album in my phone of every time the normal TSA line was shorter than the precheck line. The only politician who has ever agreed with this take is Utah Senator Orin Hatch. So does that frugality extend to Spirit Airlines? Absolutely not. Our FULL episode is out now on Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/is-it-bad-for-the-economy/id1806133964], Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/7tPD6pHa31F1OAawuYrmpD?si=8c0088d8575b443b], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@IsItBadForTheEconomy], and Substack [https://kobitirey.substack.com/]. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com [https://kobitirey.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]