Labor Market Cracks, Wild Fed Credibility Data and Semis Running Out of Pie | Last Call

Labor Market Cracks, Wild Fed Credibility Data and Semis Running Out of Pie | Last Call

In this episode of Last Call, we look back at June 2026 and break down the biggest market stories shaping investors’ outlook for the second half of the year. Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand are joined by Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman to discuss the SpaceX IPO, AI and semiconductor cyclicality, Fed credibility, options flows, labor market quality, crack spreads and inflation risk. Main topics covered * Why the SpaceX IPO became the biggest market story of the month * How index flows, ETF buying and hedge fund positioning shaped SpaceX trading * Andy Constan on why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across AI stocks * Why AI spending is benefiting semiconductors, memory and chip equipment companies * The Fab Five companies behind semiconductor capacity and why they matter * Ben Hunt on Fed credibility, market narratives, gold, the dollar and trust * Brent Kochuba on options flows, correlation risk and volatility spasms in tech stocks * Why short-term options volume may signal excess speculation in QQQ and AI stocks * How SpaceX options trading changed after the first wave of retail excitement * Eric Pachman on why headline job growth may hide weakness in wages and job quality * Why crack spreads, refining constraints and oil logistics may matter more for inflation than crude prices alone * What investors should watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory, innovation and market cycles Timestamps 00:00 Intro 01:02 Matt and Jack introduce Last Call and the June market review 03:05 Why SpaceX dominated the month and how the IPO traded after opening 07:33 Andy Constan on Fab Five Freddy eating the semis 10:35 Why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across the stock market 13:35 How AI compute spending flows through chips, fabs and semiconductor equipment 17:45 Are parts of the semiconductor market showing signs of an earnings bubble? 20:12 Ben Hunt on the Fed credibility chart that surprised him 23:50 Why Fed credibility, Sell America, gold and the dollar are connected 29:48 Brent Kochuba on options flows behind AI stocks, semis and SpaceX 33:36 Why semiconductor volatility may be warning of a short-term reset 38:46 What SpaceX options trading says after the initial surge 42:12 Eric Pachman on jobs, wages and what the Fed may be missing 48:24 Why crack spreads matter for oil, refining, gas prices and inflation 55:28 What to watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory demand and market cycles 59:01 Why efficiency, competition and cyclical thinking matter for AI investors 01:03:02 Matt and Jack close the episode

The AI Trade Has a Problem | Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Aahan Menon on What Could Derail It

In this episode of Last Call, we break down one of the most confusing market backdrops in years: AI-driven earnings optimism, rising oil and inflation risk, stretched options positioning, and the market impact of a potential SpaceX IPO. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt, and Brent Kochuba to examine what macro data, political narratives, options flows, and index mechanics are saying about where markets could go next. Topics Covered: * Why markets are looking through war, oil shocks and valuation concerns * How earnings estimates are driving sector performance in the AI trade * Aahan Menon on growth, inflation, oil prices and macro regime signals * Why demand destruction from higher energy prices can take longer than investors expect * What a rising growth and rising inflation regime can mean for stocks, commodities and bonds * Ben Hunt on World War AI and the collision between AI market optimism and political backlash * Why opposition to AI data centers could become a major market and election issue * Brent Kochuba on call buying, implied volatility and signs of options market froth * Why CORE 1M and skew signals may be warning of a downside spasm * How the SpaceX IPO could affect index flows, active managers and mega-cap stocks Timestamps: 00:00 Intro: AI, inflation and options risk in one market 05:40 Earnings estimates, AI optimism and why fundamentals still matter 10:31 Aahan Menon on a difficult macro backdrop 15:29 Why energy shocks and demand destruction take time 20:24 Why inflation can persist even if the oil shock eases 24:47 Ben Hunt on World War AI and the AI resource build-out 30:00 AI CapEx as the pillar holding up market optimism 34:00 The political backlash against AI data centers 38:00 Why data center opposition matters for markets 42:09 Why price action can distort the AI narrative 47:48 CORE 1M, stretched call prices and downside spasm risk 52:00 Why Nasdaq options are priced for upside crashes 56:11 Index rules, human judgment and the SpaceX IPO 01:00:34 The free float problem and rebalancing pressure 01:05:22 Space data centers, valuation and the size of the AI opportunity

We Asked Four Experts Why Bad News Can't Break This Market — And Whether It Will

This episode of Last Call breaks down one of the most confusing market environments in recent memory: why stocks continue to rise despite war, oil shocks, and growing macro risks. Through conversations with Jim Paulsen, Ben Hunt, Kevin Muir, and Brent Kochuba, we explore the tension between strong earnings, hidden risks in private credit and global growth, and the powerful role of flows and positioning in driving markets higher. Topics Covered * Why markets are ignoring war, oil shocks, and geopolitical risk * The “supernova” risk in private credit and why it hasn’t hit markets yet * How supply-driven inflation differs from 1970s-style demand inflation * Why pessimistic sentiment may actually be supporting markets * The role of earnings growth and valuation resets in fueling the rally * Bull vs bear case for markets based on macro, earnings, and positioning * Why free cash flow trends may be more concerning than earnings * How options flows and dealer positioning are suppressing volatility * The AI capex boom and its impact on market leadership and breadth * The growing divide between Mag 7 earnings and the rest of the market Timestamps 00:00 Intro and market overview 01:37 Why markets are not falling despite negative news 03:00 Buy-the-dip behavior and earnings resilience 06:11 Ben Hunt on “supernova” risks in private credit 08:00 Hidden credit crunch in middle market companies 10:24 Why private credit matters for economic growth 14:10 Oil supply shocks and global growth risks 17:00 Why markets can ignore risks before they appear 18:48 Jim Paulsen on market resilience and sentiment 20:00 Why pessimism may reduce downside risk 22:24 Inflation vs labor force growth framework 24:00 Why current inflation is supply-driven, not demand-driven 26:00 Potential shift from inflation focus to growth focus 29:11 Kevin Muir on bull vs bear market setup 31:00 War impact on rates, oil, and positioning 33:00 Fed reaction and shifting rate expectations 35:00 Why earnings remain the dominant market driver 37:00 Why geopolitics often doesn’t move markets 40:00 Bear case: weak free cash flow and employment risk 44:26 Brent Kochuba on options flows and positioning 47:00 Why markets ignore rising rates and oil 49:00 Call buying, dispersion, and tech leadership 51:00 Energy as both hedge and AI-driven opportunity 54:00 Correlation, volatility, and market structure 56:00 Dealer positioning and suppressed volatility 58:00 Earnings strength and narrow market leadership 01:01:00 Free cash flow vs earnings debate 01:01:55 AI capex and long-term market implications

The Moment Everyone Knew What Everyone Knew | The War That Rewrote the Rules

This episode of Last Call breaks down the biggest forces currently driving markets, focusing on the intersection of geopolitics, oil prices, volatility, and economic data. With a potential oil supply shock tied to global conflict, the discussion explores how rising energy prices could ripple through inflation, equity markets, and investor positioning—and why traditional signals like the unemployment rate may be giving a misleading picture of the economy. Jack and Matt are joined by Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba, and Eric Pachman to analyze how oil prices above key levels could trigger major market moves, why volatility is behaving differently in this cycle, how narratives become “common knowledge” in markets, and what labor force data reveals about structural changes happening beneath the surface of the US economy. Andy Constan Twitter https://x.com/dampedspring [https://x.com/dampedspring] Ben Hunt Twitter https://x.com/EpsilonTheory [https://x.com/EpsilonTheory] Brent Kochuba Twitter https://x.com/spotgamma [https://x.com/spotgamma] Eric Pachman Twitter https://x.com/epachman [https://x.com/epachman] Topics covered: * Why oil above $100 could trigger a major equity selloff and volatility spike * How oil acts as a tax on consumers and impacts GDP growth * The relationship between oil prices, inflation, and interest rates * Why supply-driven oil shocks are more dangerous than demand shocks * How geopolitical conflict changes correlations between oil and volatility * Why VIX can become tightly linked to the underlying crisis driver * The key levels in oil that determine bullish vs bearish market outcomes * Why markets may be underpricing the risks of prolonged conflict * Ben Hunt’s “common knowledge” framework and narrative shifts in markets * How investor behavior changes once risks become widely understood * Why “buy the dip” psychology may not work in this environment * How options positioning and dealer hedging flows drive short-term market moves * The JP Morgan collar trade and its potential impact on market direction * Why volatility may be rising faster than fundamentals justify * The disconnect between market pricing and underlying macro risks * Why the unemployment rate can be misleading as an economic indicator * The difference between unemployment and labor force participation * Structural decline in rural economies and migration to urban centers * How labor force trends impact economic growth and local economies * Why aggregate economic data fails to capture real-world conditions Timestamps: 00:00 Oil as a tax on the economy and growth slowdown dynamics 00:18 Strait of Hormuz risk and global oil supply vulnerability 00:32 Why $100 oil becomes the key market breaking level 00:45 Oil vs equities: why rising energy prices pressure all assets 01:12 How this episode breaks down macro, narrative, and flows 02:41 Andy Constan on oil shocks, inflation, and policy constraints 06:08 Why higher oil prices reduce discretionary spending 07:22 Oil driven inflation and limits of central bank response 09:51 Scenario analysis: oil below 90 vs above 100 13:05 Is the market actually pricing in geopolitical risk? 17:42 Ben Hunt on “common knowledge” and narrative shifts 23:18 When risks go from ignored to fully understood 27:44 Why consensus narratives can drive market turning points 31:56 Brent Kochuba on oil and VIX correlation in crisis periods 36:14 Why volatility may be underreacting to oil moves 39:02 The VIX premium and signs something is breaking 42:37 JP Morgan collar trade and dealer positioning impact 50:58 Eric Pachman on unemployment vs labor force reality 58:47 Structural decline in labor force across US counties

A Doomsday AI Article Sparked a Panic | We Break Down What It Means for Markets

In this episode of Last Call, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler look past the headlines to unpack what really moved markets this month. From the viral AI end of times scenario that sparked responses from Citadel, Fed Governor Waller, and Jeremy Siegel, to the growing stress in private credit and the rotation out of US mega cap stocks, this is a different kind of market wrap. Instead of recapping what the S and P 500 did, we explore what investors are actually doing with their money, how narratives shape positioning, and what the data says about whether this time is different. Featuring Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma, Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory, Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro, and Meb Faber of The Idea Farm, this episode dives into AI, software stocks, options flows, credit cycles, global equity markets, gold, and the power of base rates in investing. Main topics covered: * The viral AI bear case scenario and why a fictional narrative moved real markets * How investors should think in probabilities, bull cases, base cases, and bear cases * What options pricing and put call ratios reveal about real fear versus social media fear * The state of software stocks and whether extreme bearishness may have marked a short term bottom * Private credit stress, rising default risks, and why every credit cycle ends when lenders say no more * An on the ground anecdote from San Francisco illustrating how refinancing risk is playing out in real time * The rotation from US mega caps into international stocks and why fiscal spending matters for equity markets * Gold and gold miners as potential beneficiaries of global liquidity and currency shifts * Why base rates matter when evaluating explosive AI revenue forecasts * Historical lessons from the Nifty Fifty, Japan’s bubble, the dot com era, and other periods when investors believed this time is different * Portfolio construction tools including diversification, rebalancing, and trend following in bubble environments Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and the AI end of times narrative 02:16 Why investors are responding to fiction and what we can learn from it 08:00 Brent Kochuba on options flows and software stock positioning 13:00 Has extreme bearishness in software marked a bottom 19:55 Ben Hunt on private credit and the boom bust cycle 27:00 A San Francisco refinancing story and when lenders say no 33:08 Rupert Mitchell on global markets, fiscal spending, and gold 44:22 Meb Faber on base rates, bubbles, and this time is different 01:00:16 How to track AI’s real world impact in corporate data