Jeremy Siegel on Meta, Market Valuations & Why Oil Shocks Don't Hit Like They Used To

Jeremy Siegel on Meta, Market Valuations & Why Oil Shocks Don't Hit Like They Used To

To mark episode 50, Andy recaps a recent lunch with Professor Jeremy Siegel, the Wharton finance professor and author of Stocks for the Long Run, and walks Adam through the highlights live on air. Siegel's argument that Meta now qualifies as a classic value stock opened the conversation. The metaverse write-off left the market skeptical of Meta's big spending calls, and heavy AI capital expenditure has only deepened that discount, even as ad revenue keeps climbing and the forward price-to-earnings ratio remains well below that of the rest of the Magnificent Seven. From there, the episode moves into why the current rally looks different from past bubble environments, how international equities trade relative to U.S. stocks right now, what AI productivity could mean for the national debt, and a point about energy independence that reframes how much oil prices matter in 2026. The episode closes with context on the sharp sell-off on June 5th. Since 1990, the S&P 500 has averaged 31 days per year with declines of 1% or more. Through mid-2026, there have been 12. ⏱️ Timestamps:  * (1:08) Episode 50 reflections and lessons from a year of podcasting * (2:40) Andy meets Jeremy Siegel: the Wharton professor behind Stocks for the Long Run * (5:54) Why Siegel and WisdomTree call Meta a classic value stock * (7:36) AI capital expenditure, ad revenue growth, and Meta's compressed valuation * (9:49) The broader market rally: earnings-driven, not speculation-driven * (11:50) International equities trading at a 34% discount to U.S. stocks * (12:58) Defense spending, drone innovation, and why geopolitical unrest could be a tailwind for European equities * (15:17) AI, white-collar jobs, and why Siegel isn't predicting an economic apocalypse * (16:53) Half a percent of GDP growth and what it could mean for the national debt * (19:03) Consumer sentiment surveys and the political skew in the University of Michigan data * (22:31) The Iran conflict and why oil shocks don't land the same way they did in the 1990s * (24:32) June 5th sell-off: how it stacks up against 35 years of market history * (25:17) Down days as a healthy part of a functioning market * (28:21) Podcast disclosures Resources: Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast [http://www.burneywealth.com/podcast] Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement [http://www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement]  Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/]  Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/]  Stocks for the Long Run, by Jeremy Siegel | https://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Long-Run-Definitive-Investment/dp/1264269803 [https://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Long-Run-Definitive-Investment/dp/1264269803]  #WealthManagement #FinancialPlanning #StockMarket #Investing #JeremySiegel The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

IPO Hype, a Historic Market Run, and What to Look for in a Financial Advisor

The headlines around SpaceX's IPO filing are hard to ignore. Andy and Adam open this episode’s discussion with a look at surprisingly consistent data showing that every one of the ten largest IPOs in U.S. history posted a negative return in its first year, with an average decline of around 27%. That track record raises some questions about the timing of buying into that much hype at that valuation. From there, they shift to something that didn't get nearly as much attention as it deserved. April and May 2026 together ranked as the fifth-best two-month stretch for the S&P 500 in 75 years, and unlike most of the moves above it on that list, this one wasn't driven by a snap-back from panic. Earnings growth outpaced price appreciation, meaning the market actually became cheaper on a valuation basis even as prices climbed. The episode closes with a question one client sent in directly: why hire a financial advisor, and how do you find a good one? Adam and Andy walk through the criteria that matter, from fee structure and credentials to how the team around an advisor operates day-to-day. ⏱️ Timestamps:  * (1:23) SpaceX IPO filing and what to expect from the trifecta of big IPOs in 2026 * (3:55) The one-year performance of the ten largest U.S. IPOs since 2000 * (5:15) Why mega-cap IPOs aren't exceptions to the underperformance pattern * (6:46) How hype outpaces reality once public markets get a closer look * (8:00) If you're a long-term believer, why the IPO date probably doesn't matter * (9:29) Morningstar's valuation estimate on SpaceX and the case for waiting * (11:27) April and May 2026: the fifth-best two-month S&P run since 1950 * (12:06) Why this rally is different from the panic-recovery moves above it on the list * (14:36) Earnings are driving the market higher while valuations actually come down * (17:44) Andy pivots to the value of a financial advisor and the Vanguard study * (23:05) The four Cs: competency, coaching, convenience, continuity * (24:16) What 250,000 people calling themselves advisors actually means * (25:11) The three things Adam looks for: fee-only, credentials, team structure * (30:32) Trust as the final filter and what it looks like when an advisor is selling fear * (32:02) Podcast disclosures Resources: Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast [http://www.burneywealth.com/podcast] Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement [http://www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement]  Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/]  Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/]  Vanguard Advisor’s Alpha: Clients and their advisors thriving together for 25 years | https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/celebrating-25-years-of-working-to-improve-outcomes-for-you-and-your-clients [https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/celebrating-25-years-of-working-to-improve-outcomes-for-you-and-your-clients]  #WealthManagement #FinancialPlanning #IPO #StockMarket #FinancialAdvisor The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

Tax-Smart Investing, Why Bonds Are Back, and the Sentiment Paradox

Andy is recording from a hotel room in Seattle, attending the Basis Northwest Conference, a two-day deep dive into esoteric tax strategies run by Brent Sullivan of Tax Alpha Insider. The episode opens with a walkthrough of what tax-centric wealth management looks like in practice, including asset location, direct indexing, tax-loss harvesting, and the 351 ETF conversion on the investment side, and Roth conversions, charitable giving strategy, and lifetime tax efficiency on the planning side. The second topic is bonds. Interest rates spiked last week, and Adam walks through a chart plotting ten-year Treasury starting yields against forward returns since the early nineties. With last year's starting yield at 4.6%, forward-looking bond returns are projecting just under 6% annualized. Andy's read is that 4.6% sits right in the middle of the historical range. This is a normalization, not a warning sign. Consumer sentiment is near its lowest level on record, driven in part by the U.S.-Iran war and fuel price concerns, while the stock market sits near all-time highs and earnings keep growing. Adam and Andy discuss the K-shaped economy, the politics angle, and why sentiment this low has historically preceded strong forward returns. Andy closes with Ben Carlson's thought experiment - even an investor who bought only at all-time highs throughout history still averaged around 8% annually over the long run. ⏱️ Timestamps:  * (00:49) Intro: Andy live from Seattle at the Basis Northwest Conference * (01:35) Asset location and matching investments to account types * (04:57) Direct indexing and tax-loss harvesting at scale * (06:44) Adam on the planning side: lifetime tax efficiency vs. the single-year bill * (10:36) Why CPAs push back on Roth conversions and why that's shortsighted * (11:10) The ten-year distribution rule and multi-generational tax planning * (13:05) Bond market update and why rates spiked last week * (14:02) The ten-year yield chart: starting yield vs. forward return * (17:42) Stocks vs. bonds: why equities still win over the long run * (19:20) University of Michigan sentiment survey: 44.8, an all-time low * (22:06) The K-shaped economy and whether politics explains the gap * (26:28) Ben Carlson's all-time highs thought experiment * (27:46) Wrap and listener questions * (27:28) Podcast disclosures Resources: Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast [http://www.burneywealth.com/podcast] Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement [http://www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement]  Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/]  Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/]  Tax Alpha Insider Substack by Brent Sullivan | https://www.taxalphainsider.com/ [https://www.taxalphainsider.com/]  Ben Carlson / A Wealth of Common Sense | https://awealthofcommonsense.com/ [https://awealthofcommonsense.com/] CNBC “Consumer sentiment hits fresh record low in May as Iran war fuels inflation worries” | https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/consumer-sentiment-hits-fresh-record-low-in-may-as-iran-war-fuels-inflation-worries.html [https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/consumer-sentiment-hits-fresh-record-low-in-may-as-iran-war-fuels-inflation-worries.html]   University of Michigan Survey of Consumers | https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ [https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/] #TaxPlanning #WealthManagement #RothConversion #BondMarket #ConsumerSentiment #Investing #PersonalFinance #LongTermInvesting The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

The State of the American Consumer, Long-Term Care Costs & the Value Factor

Despite months of pessimistic headlines, a thread from Ryan Detrick at the Carson Group shows American consumers in solid shape. Credit card delinquencies are back to pre-COVID levels, foreclosures and bankruptcies are flat, and home equity has climbed alongside equity markets. Andy adds the Costco recession indicator to the mix, which flags a shift from steaks to canned tuna as a warning sign. Adam's take is that maybe people just want tuna salad in the summer. From there, the episode turns to long-term care costs, one of the most underplanned-for expenses in retirement. A Business Insider article about a family navigating memory care for an aging parent put a number to it - $17,000 a month, with over $200,000 spent in 18 months. Adam walks through state-by-state cost ranges using the Genworth cost of care calculator, the case for and against long-term care insurance, and why starting the conversation early is the most important move regardless of what you decide. The episode closes with the second installment of Burney's factor deep dive series. Andy covers the value factor, tracing the Fama-French research showing cheaply priced stocks have historically outperformed expensive ones by 3 to 5% annually, why price-to-book value has lost its usefulness, and why value investors have to be prepared to sit through extended stretches where growth dominates. ⏱️ Timestamps: (00:45) Intro from Hilton Head and Memorial Day weekend (02:06) Ryan Detrick's consumer data: credit cards, delinquencies, and household balance sheets (04:46) The Costco recession indicator (06:32) Cost of long-term care: a Business Insider story about memory care at $17K a month (08:10) What Burney walks clients through when planning for care costs (09:25) The Genworth cost of care calculator and state-by-state ranges (12:48) Long-term care insurance: the decision window, the history, and who actually needs it (19:13) Why most clients end up choosing to self-insure (20:00) Factor deep dive: the value factor and the Fama-French research (21:47) Why price-to-book no longer works and what's replaced it (23:04) Price-to-earnings as the most practical value measure (24:26) Why value has underperformed growth for a decade, and why that doesn't kill the thesis (26:48) How Burney's models track which value metrics are working now (27:41) Podcast disclosures Resources: Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ Business Insider Article, “My dad's dementia care cost $17,000 a month. It wiped out his life savings in 16 months” | https://www.businessinsider.com/dads-dementia-care-cost-life-savings-2026-5 Genworth Cost of Care Calculator | https://www.carescout.com/cost-of-care Costco Recession Indicator | https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/costco-recession-signal-goes-viral-114424970.html #LongTermCare #RetirementPlanning #PersonalFinance #ValueInvesting #StockMarket #WealthManagement #FactorInvesting #ConsumerHealth The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.

Ten Trillion-Dollar Companies, Social Security COLAs, and the Great Wealth Transfer

Adam opens with a pop quiz on how many trillion-dollar market cap companies exist in the US right now. The answer is ten, led by NVIDIA at $4.8 trillion.  He traces prior melt-up periods from the Roaring Twenties through the Nifty Fifty, the Japanese market in the '80s, and the Nasdaq bubble of the '90s to put the Nasdaq 100's 643% climb over the past decade in context. Andy adds the labor market data. Payrolls grew above expectations in the most recent report, and despite fears that AI-driven tech layoffs would hollow out white-collar employment, companies are still hiring. Adam then turns to Social Security, where stickier inflation has a silver lining. With CPI at 3.8% and running sticky, early projections put the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) at 4-5%. He walks through the COLA history and explains why delaying your claim matters so much when those adjustments stack on top of 8% annual delay credits. The episode closes on the great wealth transfer, a topic Adam says he's been hearing about for twenty years. Baby boomers hold $90 trillion in wealth, but Andy and Adam both question whether the anticipated handoff to millennials and Gen Z will play out as expected. Boomers are spending more aggressively than prior generations, living longer into their go-go years, and, in many cases, intentionally holding off on passing down wealth. ⏱️ Timestamps * (00:44) Pop quiz: how many trillion-dollar companies are there? * (01:15) NVIDIA at $4.8 trillion and the full list * (02:19) Melt-ups throughout history: the '20s, Nifty Fifty, Japan, the Nasdaq * (05:11) What's supporting the run: the latest jobs report * (06:27) AI layoff fears and why the data tells a different story * (07:52) Social Security COLAs and what stickier inflation means for 2027 * (08:17) COLA history: near-zero for a decade, then 6%, then almost 9% * (09:40) Why delaying your Social Security claim compounds the benefit * (12:12) The great wealth transfer: $90 trillion in boomer wealth * (13:59) Why boomers are spending it rather than passing it on * (14:23) Longevity, health span, and the go-go years stretching longer * (18:18) Planning for a life that might run to 100 or beyond * (20:07) Upcoming guests: estate planning, P&C insurance, trust administration * (21:14) Podcast disclosures Resources: Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast [http://www.burneywealth.com/podcast] Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement [http://www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement]  Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/]  Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/]  Wall Street Journal: The Great $110 Trillion Wealth Transfer Won’t Happen Any Time Soon | https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-great-110-trillion-wealth-transfer-wont-happen-any-time-soon-e8b2ef31 [https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-great-110-trillion-wealth-transfer-wont-happen-any-time-soon-e8b2ef31]] #SocialSecurity #WealthTransfer #StockMarket #RetirementPlanning #PersonalFinance #WealthManagement #LongTermInvesting #Longevity The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.