How We’re Thinking About Presidential Primary Elections post-New Hampshire

Primary Results, Redistricting Shifts, and the History of Senate/Presidential Ticket-Splitting

Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss Senator Mitch McConnell’s legacy after he announced his intention to step down from his role as Senate Republican Leader effective November 2024. They also talk about the Michigan presidential primary election results; the impact of district changes after the New York State Assembly and Senate both passed a new New York Congressional map this week that was signed into law by Governor Kathy Hochul; a preview of the California Congressional primary; and the recent history of split-ticket voting in presidential and Senate elections.  Links in this episode:  * The Postwar History of Senate/Presidential Ticket-Splitting, Part Two [https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-postwar-history-of-senate-presidential-ticket-splitting-part-two/] * Notes on the State of Politics: Feb. 28, 2024 [https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-feb-28-2024/]

When It’s Good Because It’s Not Bad

Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss recent political developments and new analyses on the Crystal Ball, including reduced split-ticket voting in Senate elections, updates on 2024 Senate contests, insights from the NY-3 special election results and the significance of New York redistricting for the House of Representatives. They also highlight the decreasing number of competitive House seats and the potential impact on future control of the House. Links in this episode * Notes on the State of the Senate [https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-the-senate-3/] * Big NY-3 Win Brings Democrats Ever Closer in the House [https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/big-ny-3-win-brings-democrats-ever-closer-in-the-house/]

Is Roe Fertile Ground in 2024? And What’s the Potential Impact of Ticket-Splitting?

In this episode, Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss the recent Nevada caucus and primary results and dive into the potential impact of ticket-splitting in down-ballot House of Representatives elections this year. Rich Thau, president of Engagious, also joins Carah, Tyler Busch, Zoe Shook, and Etienne Ouellette to discuss focus groups with voters in key states for the 2024 elections. The 2024 Deciders is a project with Sago [https://sago.com/en/] and Syracuse University’s Institute for Democracy, Journalism and Citizenship, [https://idjc.syracuse.edu/] In the presidential elections * The Race for the House, Part One [https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-race-for-the-house-part-one/] * The Race for the House, Part Two [https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-race-for-the-house-part-two/] * Engagious - 2024 Deciders [https://engagious.com/2024deciders/]

'Huge Election, Huge Stakes': Trump's Trials and Political Implications ft. Darren Samuelsohn

Award-winning journalist Darren Samuelsohn joins Carah Ong Whaley and Ella Doddridge (UVA ‘26) to help make sense of the various Trump trials and their implications for politics and the upcoming election, what it’s really like covering the former president, and navigating journalism in the modern media landscapes. Links in this episode: * Love, Journalism [https://www.lovejournalism.com/] * Darren Samuelsohn [https://www.darrensamuelsohn.com/] * Court Listener [https://www.courtlistener.com/]

How We’re Thinking About Presidential Primary Elections post-New Hampshire

In this episode, Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss what they learned about voter turnout in the New Hampshire primary election and how they are thinking about the upcoming presidential primary elections. They also discuss the recent decision in Louisiana to create a second Black-majority Congressional district, ending a nearly two-year saga over adequate Black representation in the state.  Links in this episode:  * The Fields Above the Graves: Louisiana 2024 Redistricting [https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-fields-above-the-graves-louisiana-2024-redistricting/] * Trump Clears the New Hampshire Hurdle [https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/trump-clears-the-new-hampshire-hurdle/]