The Per-Capita Recession, 4% Mortgages, and Why 'Wait and See' is the Only Strategy

Three Weeks of Bad Data and One Orange Man

Back after a four-week break, Adam runs through everything that's moved in the UK property market over the past month, and the picture has shifted. Transactions are now down three weeks running, with last week's sold-subject-to-contract figures off around 9% year on year. Adam explains why the slowdown is showing up in June rather than March: the 90-day decision-in-principle window that locked first-time buyers into sub-4% rates has finally run out, and the new world of 4.75 to 5% is quietly pricing people out. First-time buyers are still 55% of the market, so when their borrowing power drops, everything feels it. Also in this one: • TrumpWatch: how the Iran situation and the oil price are setting inflation expectations and feeding straight into UK swaps • The five-year swap's run up towards 4.4% and back, the 30-year gilt near 5.5%, and why deals are now being modelled on 6 to 6.1% money • The supply glut explained: over-instruction, only 54% of listings actually selling, and a 25% gap between asking and agreed prices • Why nominal house prices are a nonsense, and how, adjusted for RPI, we're sitting back at Q1 2003 • The gearing-up versus gearing-down trap, and a few honest words on what Rich Dad Poor Dad got wrong about "good debt" • London: 20, 30, even 40% discounts appearing, and why this might be the best buying window in a decade if the yield can be made to work • The Labour leadership question, the Makerfield by-election, and what a Burnham win (and his choice of chancellor) could mean for landlords, from a Torsten Bell land value tax to a steadier Pat McFadden • A grounded look at rent controls, what Scotland's "rent cap" actually did, and the difference between stabilisation and a 1970s rent officer Plus a word on the upcoming Property Business Workshop in central London, the only day in the UK dedicated to due diligence, run with Rod Turner and this time with special guest Claude alongside for the live due diligence exercise. Booking link: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven [https://www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven] Read the full Supplement every Sunday on LinkedIn and the Property & Poppadoms website. Keep calm, carry on, and come back every Sunday.

The £76k new-build tax, EPC illusions and why Britain has stopped building

Is the UK property market crashing, or is it just geographically divided? ***CHECK OUT OUR NEXT WORKSHOP: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven [https://www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven]*** In this week's Propenomix Sunday Supplement live version, I dive deep into the unvarnished reality of the UK economy and housing market. I break down the massive 27.4% gap between property listing prices and actual sale prices, the horrifying cratering of the UK construction sector, and exactly why it now costs £76,000 more to build a house than it did in 2020. Plus, I look at the seismic shock of the local elections - what does a Nigel Farage/Reform UK surge mean for landlords, rent controls, and the bond markets? If you are a property investor, developer, or just trying to navigate UK interest rates and inflation, this is the only macroeconomic breakdown you need this week. 👇 SUBSCRIBE & DROP YOUR QUESTIONS IN THE COMMENTS! 👇 In this 1-Hour Live Stream, I cover: Trumpwatch: The US Court blocks global tariffs & the UK local election fallout. The Reality of the High Street: Why 46% of homes are withdrawing unsold. Halifax House Price Index: The brutal North-South property divide. Macro Data: S&P PMIs flash red for construction as supply pipelines dry up. Gilts & Swaps: Why "Higher for Longer" interest rates are locked in. The Deep Dive: How political shifts will impact your property portfolio and EPC illusions. ⏱️ Video Chapters / Timestamps 00:00 - Intro: Welcome to the Sunday Supplement Live! 02:15 - Trumpwatch: Local Election Shocks & Trade War Updates 12:30 - UK Property Market: 637k Listings & The "Hopium" Epidemic 20:45 - The 27.4% Pricing Delusion: Why Half the Market is Failing 28:00 - Halifax House Price Index: Real Terms Shrinkage & The North-South Divide 36:15 - The PMI Horror Show: UK Construction is Cratering 45:00 - Supply Chain Crisis: The £76k "New Build Tax" & Material Costs 51:30 - Gilts, Swaps & Interest Rates: Are We Stuck at 4.5%? 55:20 - The Deep Dive: How Politics & Populism Will Impact Landlords 1:00:00 - Live Q&A and Final Thoughts #Propenomix #AdamLawrence #Property #Business #Economics #Markets ***CHECK OUT OUR NEXT WORKSHOP: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven [https://www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven]***

Pricing Hopium - Housing, Tariffs and the End of Hope

Episode Title: Whisky Carrots, Tech Sticks & The Death of Pricing Hopium Show Notes: Upcoming Event: Before we dive into today's macroeconomic breakdown, a quick reminder: Navigating a market devoid of "pricing hopium" requires airtight analysis. My next Property Business Workshop is coming up, and we are focusing entirely on Due Diligence. If you want to stop guessing and start running the real numbers on your acquisitions, secure your spot now: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven [https://gemini.google.com/app/b09db91517d3ada0] Welcome back to the Propenomix Podcast. In this episode, we are breaking down my latest article and deep-dive: "Whisky Carrots, Tech Sticks, and The Death of Pricing Hopium." We are officially in an era where sentiment and headlines don't pay the bills - structural data, deep economic analysis, and pragmatism do. Today, we cut through the noise to explore the macroeconomic drivers actually influencing UK property returns right now. We discuss what I refer to as "Whisky Carrots" (the genuine, mature incentives and opportunities in the market) versus the "Tech Sticks" (regulatory pressures, EPC targets, and compliance data forcing landlords' hands). Most importantly, we dissect the "Death of Pricing Hopium" - why the era of waiting for zero-interest-rate valuations to magically return is over, and why sellers and investors must finally face the reality of the current economic cycle. If you want to make investment decisions with confidence rather than fear, grab a notebook. It's time to look at the real numbers. CHAPTERS & TIMESTAMPS: * Introduction & Cutting Through the Property Headlines * The Macro Landscape: Inflation, Yields, & The Reality of the Economy * What are "Whisky Carrots"? (Finding Genuine Value & Mature Incentives) * The "Tech Sticks": EPCs, New Regulations, and The Cost of Non-Compliance * The Death of Pricing Hopium: Why Sellers Must Face Reality Now * Capital Flows, Commodities, & Global Macro Trends into 2027 * Adapting Your Property Strategy (Hold, Fold, or Refinance?) * Audience Q&A: 4% Mortgages, Margins, & Portfolio Restructuring * Final Thoughts & How to Read the Sunday Supplement RESOURCES & LINKS: 🎟️ Join the next Property Business Workshop (Focus: Due Diligence): Bulletproof your acquisition strategy by booking your ticket here: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven [https://gemini.google.com/app/b09db91517d3ada0] 📖 Read the original article: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/adamglawrence_propertymarket-macroeconomics-ukhousing-ugcPost-7456620611306606592-7_aZ [https://www.linkedin.com/posts/adamglawrence_propertymarket-macroeconomics-ukhousing-ugcPost-7456620611306606592-7_aZ] ✉️ Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement Newsletter: https://propenomix.com/ [https://propenomix.com/] 💼 Connect with Adam on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/ [https://www.google.com/search?q=https://linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/] ABOUT ADAM LAWRENCE: Adam is the founder of Propenomix, author of the acclaimed Sunday Supplements economic newsletter, and host of the Propenomix Podcast. With a corporate background in wealth management and a property career that started in earnest in 2011, Adam has been involved in over 850+ UK property deals and portfolios. His approach blends real economics, structural data, and practical investor experience to empower you to build strategies that align with real capital markets. Enjoyed the episode? Please hit "Follow" on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen, and consider leaving a rating and review to help spread the word of Propenomix.

Lowering the Speed Limit to Save the Economy (And Other Bureaucratic Delusions)

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed , Brent crude has blasted past $100 a barrel , and the Bank of England has slammed the brakes on rate cuts . Welcome to another essential reality check on this week's Propenomix Supplement. We are stripping away the mainstream noise to look at exactly how global geopolitics, staggering private credit failures, and a flatlining UK economy are impacting your portfolio right now. The facts have changed, and your strategy needs to change with them. What we cover in this week's episode: * Geopolitics & Trumponomics: Tariffs are back on the menu with a maximum threat of 15% . Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict is sending European wholesale gas prices up nearly 100% on the month . * The UK Property Market: We've hit a 10-year high for March listings . Transactions are functional , but the glut of supply has led to the longest average time to sell since 2013 . * Bond Market Bloodbath: The flagship 10-year gilt is threatening the 5% yield mark for the first time since the financial crisis . We discuss why you must stress-test your debt exits at 6% to 6.25% . * Deep Dive: The £1.7bn MFS Collapse: A forensic look at the Market Financial Solutions administration . We break down the "double pledging" allegations , the massive institutional contagion , and the incoming fire sale of 250 Prime Central London properties . * Bank of England's 9-0 Hold: Why the MPC voted unanimously to hold the base rate at 3.75% , the BoE's expectation that inflation will bounce back to 3.5% , and the very real threat of stagflation as GDP crawls at 0.1% . * The Labour Market & Construction: Why self-employment plummeted by a staggering 242k in 2025 , how businesses are turning to automation instead of hiring , and why the 1.5m homes goal is an utter pipedream as planning apps fall again . * Generation Rent's EPC Fantasy: Breaking down the new £10,000 EPC cost cap and why backdoor rent controls will simply drive landlords to sell up and buy 5% government bonds instead . This is not a time for marginal deals . Tune in to get the raw data and the macroeconomic perspective you need to defend your portfolio and spot the generational acquisition opportunities hiding in the distress . Listen now on all major platforms.

The Per-Capita Recession, 4% Mortgages, and Why 'Wait and See' is the Only Strategy

We are officially in a per-capita recession, meaning the average person in the UK is getting steadily poorer, despite the headline vanity metrics trying to suggest otherwise . In this week's agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup, we cut through the noise of the mainstream headlines to deliver the unvarnished reality of the market . Mortgage rates are all over the place, with the potential of rates being cut in the US while being raised in the UK . As Mohamed El-Erian points out, "We are navigating a global economy that is structurally different, not just cyclically delayed. The old playbooks will not work" . If your business model is built on waiting for cheaper debt, you need to change the model or move on . Grab your black armbands, because we are diving deep . In this episode, we cover: * Macro Headwinds & Trumponomics: We discuss the ongoing war, the intense volatility in the oil market, and the US Trade Representative's investigation into 60 major economies for "forced labour" and "manufacturing overcapacity" . * The Illusion of Growth: We break down the latest GDP Growth report, which printed 0% for growth in January, and explain why the 0.1% uptick in Q4 2025 masks underlying weakness . * Property Market Reality Check: A deep dive into the RICS Residential Market Report and Hometrack's Rental Market Index . We explore why rental supply is still 23% below pre-pandemic levels and why the Buy to Let sector represented just 8.4% of gross mortgage advances in Q4 2025 . * The Ground Rent Farce: We expose how the proposed £250 cap on ground rents will inadvertently deliver an estimated £8.7 billion windfall to property investors rather than helping owner-occupiers . * Demand Support & The SME Crisis: An analysis of the LPDF and Savills report on introducing demand support, and why SME developers are capturing an increasingly small share of the new build market . * Gilts & Swaps: The 5-year gilt yield closed the week at 4.35%, and we explain why the next move the Bank of England makes might actually be a rate hike . Links & Resources: * Our next Property Business Workshop is selling fast! Join us on Wednesday 22nd April in Central Manchester to discuss tax, risk, deal structuring, and exit options . * Secure your tickets here: www.tinyurl.com/pbwten [https://www.google.com/search?q=https://www.tinyurl.com/pbwten] Keep Calm, ALWAYS listen to or read the Supplement, and Carry On .