Episode 33: Are prediction markets overstated for March Madness?

Episode 36: From Mexico to Austria, with a $5.7bn Caesars deal in between

Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison are back with a round-the-world showcase in this episode, taking in three of the biggest stories in the industry: a market reshuffle in Mexico, Austria's long-awaited monopoly shake-up and the implications of the Caesars acquisition. MEXICO'S GAMBLING MARKET AT A CROSSROADS As the second biggest LatAm market after Brazil, Mexico has grown at a fast pace, and 80% of the market is onshore. However, a new 50% GGR tax rate and the licence revocation of Bet365 and Betano's licensing partner may now disrupt that growth.  H2 estimates Mexico's World Cup co-hosting role could generate around $2.5 billion in extra sportsbook turnover. Whether that offsets the drag from the tax hike remains to be seen. AUSTRIA IGAMING: ENDING MONOPOLIES BECOMING THE TREND? Austria's Ministry of Finance has leaked a draft bill to end Win2day's decades-long online gambling monopoly and open the market to multiple operators for the first time. As Imogen Goodman reports [https://igamingbusiness.com/legal-compliance/what-we-know-austria-igaming-liberalisation/], the Finance Ministry itself acknowledges the monopoly model has become increasingly difficult to enforce in the digital age. The reform could deliver a significant fiscal windfall, especially as Austria faces pressure to reduce its budget deficit. The pair welcome the direction of travel but raise serious concerns about what is on the table, for example, deposit limits of €250 per week for under-26s, a €2 maximum stake per spin and back taxes owed on outstanding Austrian court rulings.  Ed's early verdict is clear: with restrictions like these, the channelisation rate could end up closer to that of the Netherlands than anyone would like. As the Dutch channelisation slipped below 50% [https://igamingbusiness.com/finance/netherlands-channelisation-drops-illegal-market-grows/] in the first half of 2025 due to strict deposit limits, Austria has been warned. WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE CAESARS ACQUISITION? As iGB reported, Tilman Fertitta recently agreed a $5.7 billion deal to acquire Caesars Entertainment [https://igamingbusiness.com/finance/fertitta-agrees-to-buy-caesars-may-2026/]. Ed's key point is that the Caesars digital business is strategically valuable not just as a revenue line but also as a player data tool for cross-selling to land-based properties. Spinning it off risks destroying that value entirely. Tune in to hear the pair's full verdict. Finally, we want to thank everyone who has been listening and getting in touch. Every message means more than you think. Check out the full Right to the Source series [https://igamingbusiness.com/podcasts/right-to-the-source/] for more iGaming insights.

Episode 35: UK prize draws, RTP cuts and the industry crying wolf

Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison walk us through some of the key industry topics in the latest episode of Right to the Source. The UK takes centre stage, with a detour around the world for good measure. THE PRIZE DRAW OPPORTUNITY AND THE RTP DEBATE The pair touch on Portugal's new centralised self-exclusion system and Australia's gambling ad reforms before Robin introduces something genuinely new to the series: the UK prize draw market.  According to Robin, 44% of operators were incorporated after 2020. At £1.3 billion in annual player spend and 7.4 million active players, it is a young and largely unregulated sector operating outside Gambling Commission oversight.  As Nicole Macedo recently reported [https://igamingbusiness.com/legal-compliance/whitepaper-prize-draw-opportunity-uk-igaming/], with 88% of prize draw participants also engaging in commercial gambling, the cross-sell opportunity is hard to ignore. However, Ed is sceptical that it is a meaningful opportunity for real-money gaming operators, as he thinks the targeted players for prize draws are different. On the other hand, the remote gaming duty hike in the UK is pushing operators to lower slot RTPs. Both Ed and Robin land on the same conclusion: it is probably a bad thing for operators and players alike.  Ed draws on a conversation from the Big Daddy Gaming episode [https://igamingbusiness.com/casino-games/slots/right-to-the-source-big-daddy-gaming/] earlier in the year. Operators have spent years calibrating RTP to an optimal level. If it were simply a case of cutting it to make more money, they would have done it already.  Ed's bigger concern, though, is what this means for the industry's credibility. If the market keeps growing despite the tax hike, the government will simply conclude the industry was crying wolf.  BEYOND THE UK: PREDICTION MARKETS AND SPORTRADAR There are a few stories to keep the prediction market lively. The pair cover some recent developments regarding Brazil, the NCAA and DraftKings. Check out the prediction market roundup [https://igamingbusiness.com/prediction-markets/prediction-market-roundup-51526/] from iGB to keep up with the latest developments. The episode finishes with the Sportradar short-selling report [https://igamingbusiness.com/finance/sportradar-unregulated-revenues-ceo-carsten-koerl/]. Ed raises a pointed question about whether commercial data providers should also serve as integrity monitors. Tune in to hear Ed's verdict!

Episode 33: Are prediction markets overstated for March Madness?

Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison covered a few key industry topics this week, taking a closer look at the recent ECJ development and the March Madness betting market. The pair begin with the recent ECJ opinion around German player-loss cases [https://igamingbusiness.com/legal-compliance/tipico-ecj-local-gambling-licensing/], which they suggest offers limited clarity for the wider industry. The opinion appears to support the right of member states to enforce local gambling licensing regimes, as long as those rules comply with EU law. However, it still leaves the biggest questions unanswered. MARCH MADNESS AND THE REAL SIZE OF THE BETTING MARKET According to Ed, March Madness is the single most-bet tournament [https://igamingbusiness.com/sports-betting/h2-gambling-capital-march-madness-wagering-record/] in the world. H2 estimates that the legal US sportsbook handle for the men’s and women’s tournaments combined will reach $4 billion, up from $3.7 billion last year. In addition, Ed estimates prediction markets could generate around $1.6 billion in volume on the tournament, which he translates to roughly $530 million in handle equivalent. The amount directly competing with regulated sportsbooks in states where sports betting is already legal is much smaller, at around $135 million to $150 million. ARE PREDICTION MARKETS BEING OVERSTATED? From the discussion, prediction markets are far from the only factor that could affect sportsbook performance. Other pressures, such as promotional pullbacks, macroeconomic headwinds and shifting consumer behaviour, may have a greater impact on handle. The pair conclude by widening the discussion around prediction markets more broadly. Robin points to recent developments in places such as Brazil, Argentina and the Netherlands, while Ed remains firmly sceptical about their long-term prospects.

Episode 32: Is Las Vegas gaming revenue really slowing down?

Right to the Source returns this week with Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison taking a closer look at the latest Las Vegas gaming revenue figures, alongside the usual mix of sports trivia and off-script debate. While headline numbers suggest a dip [https://igamingbusiness.com/finance/las-vegas-january-numbers/] in performance, Birkin argues the reality is more nuanced. January revenue is down year-on-year, but much of this decline can be attributed to the unusually high hold in baccarat and pai gow during the previous period.  With that removed, underlying performance in core segments such as gaming machines and table games remains relatively stable. Nevada gaming revenue is still above pre-Covid levels and broadly flat year-on-year, rather than in any meaningful decline.

Episode 31: Could Norsk Tipping woes topple its monopoly?

After an extended break Right to the Source is back, with Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison speculating on Norsk Tipping losing its monopoly in the wake of a lottery scandal.  With over 15,000 players joining a suit in the wake of a litany of technical errors, which meant chances of winnings were distorted for some players, while others were told they had won far larger sums. The errors went undetected for almost a decade.  Could this be an echo of Veikkaus’ struggles in Finland, where advertising violations brought scrutiny and impacted public trust? That may well have contributed to the Finnish re-regulation, and as of 2027, the opening of a liberalised market. Norway has been resolutely against calls to end Norsk Tipping’s monopoly, but could this scandal force the issue? Ed also finds time to rant about prediction markets, insult Northerners and call Star Wars rubbish.