The SpaceX IPO, APAC Long/Short Positioning & What Iran Means for the 10-Year

Crowded Shorts, Trapped Longs: The Positioning Map from U.S. Crypto to Hong Kong

S3 Partners founder Bob Sloan flagged Strategy's (MSTR) funding problem months ago. With Bitcoin near $60K and Saylor's break-even around $70K, Bob and Charlie Gasparino break down the negative carry, the asset-liability mismatch, and the "holes in the boat": if his 4% of all Bitcoin starts hitting the tape, the ~$20K technical floor of the last crypto winter comes back into play. On the S3 radar: Pepsi (PEP), the bullish pick of the week into earnings, short interest up 46% against a rising price; Hong Kong, a tinderbox with shorts up 49% as China nears a deflation exit; memory/DRAM, where US shorts press SanDisk (SNDK) and Micron (MU) at extreme Z-scores while Korean longs, up 200%, crush shorts out of the market; and Circle (CRCL), down 19% on passive selling even with active longs at 2.5x shorts — a crack in the stablecoin duopoly. Away from the data desk, Charlie reports on the Sun Valley media gathering — knitting class included — where Ken Griffin rejects the class-warfare label and sources say the Comcast–Charter deal everyone expects isn't happening. Plus a live text brawl between AMC CEO Adam Aron and analyst Rich Greenfield over dilution math, and Jay Clayton's nod for Director of National Intelligence. Risk & Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan. Data drives news. News drives markets. For more information about the positioning data featured in the episode visit www.S3Partners.com 00:00 Intro 02:36 Breaking news from Sun Valley: the billionaires' knitting class 07:15 Ken Griffin, class warfare, and the mogul lineup 15:36 Strategy (MSTR): Saylor below break-even 19:38 "Holes in the boat" — why $20K is Bitcoin's technical floor 23:00 Why Brian Roberts looks glum: Comcast–Charter math doesn't work 26:27 S3 pick of the week: Pepsi (PEP) bullish into earnings 27:14 Hong Kong tinderbox: shorts +49% as China nears a deflation exit 29:13 China Vanke and the state backstop 31:26 Memory/DRAM: shorts press SanDisk & Micron at extreme Z-scores 32:32 South Korea's "dragon's mouth": Active long positioning 35:01 Circle (CRCL): a cracking stablecoin duopoly 37:19 AMC text brawl: Adam Aron vs. Rich Greenfield on dilution 44:33 Wrap-up

Selloffs, Squeezes & a July 4th Bull Case for America!

Bitcoin's been cut in half — is the crypto winter just getting started? Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners founder Bob Sloan break down the data behind the selloff, and why S3's positioning numbers on Strategy (MSTR) signal more pain ahead: a dilution spiral where the company issued shares, converts and then preferred shares, forcing an endless hunt for funding to hold the price up. Bob ties it to David Einhorn's classic Allied Capital short — you can't fight a stock while the money keeps flowing, in either direction. Away from the data desk, Charlie gets into why Europe is at war with air conditioning, Comcast's NBCUniversal spinoff and the failure of the media-conglomerate model, and why independent media is eating legacy TV's lunch. On the S3 side, four names are on the radar: Wendy's (WEN), a meme and battleground stock on ten-year-high short interest and a Reddit-fueled surge; the memory/DRAM sector, where shorts and passive money pile in as active investors flee; healthcare, the most crowded hedge-fund long. All capped with a July 4th case for American optimism! Risk & Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan. Data drives news. News drives markets. 00:00 Intro — Bob Sloan, S3, and the "data drives news" ethos 04:57 Crypto winter: Bitcoin halves from $120K 09:23 Crypto infrastructure and the long-term bull case 10:15 MSTR: dilution death spiral? 16:13 Einhorn's Allied Capital — you can't short the funding 18:09 IBIT short interest: watching for the bottom 19:35 Europe's war on air conditioning 25:59 Comcast spins off NBCUniversal 30:41 Why the media-conglomerate model keeps failing 35:20 Independent media is winning — a million views on positioning 40:20 Wendy's (WEN): meme stock & battleground setup 43:26 Memory/DRAM sector: shorts and passive money surge 44:44 Healthcare: the most crowded hedge-fund long since 2021 53:33 July 4th sign-off: the case for American optimism

Positioning Is Everything: The Seventh Category of Market Data

Charlie Gasparino opens with the headlines he's been breaking: the Paramount-Skydance bid for Warner Bros. getting a pass from the Trump administration, why two progressive state AGs could still tie up the $81 billion deal, and the puzzle of why Cory Booker is fighting Trump's bipartisan college sports reform. Then S3 Partners founder and managing partner Bob Sloan makes the case for "the seventh category of market data"—the daily battle between passive flows, active managers, and short interest that's quietly reshaping how stocks move. The pair dig into Q2's biggest short squeezes, why energy left an "air pocket" below the April top, and the live Micron earnings playing out as levered hedge-fund dollars square off against record passive ownership. Plus: the "Magnificent Ten," why space shorts only target pre-revenue names, and SpaceX shedding $250 billion in a single day. Broadcast June 24, 2026. Chapter Breakdown 00:00 — Intro 01:34 — Paramount-Skydance, Warner Bros. & the Antitrust Fight 07:09 — TikTok, Media Consolidation & the AG Lawsuit Threat 10:07 — College Sports Reform & the Cory Booker Puzzle 12:11 — Space Falls $250B in a Day — The Size of Alibaba 20:47 — Lockup Overhangs, Supply & Short Interest Spikes 22:04 — The Seventh Category of Market Data 25:33 — Energy: No Shorts, One-Way Bet & the Air Pocket 28:23 — Micron & Qualcomm: The Levered vs. Unlevered Dollar 30:40 — Qualcomm's Widening Ownership Gap & 5-Year-High Shorts 33:38 — The "Magnificent Ten" and the AI Proxy Trade 37:24 — Space Sector: Shorts Target Pre-Revenue Names 39:50 — Reading the SpaceX S-1: A $28 Trillion TAM 47:13 — Kevin Warsh, AI at the Fed & the Data Mandate 50:04 — The $6 Trillion Balance Sheet Problem 52:38 — Where to Catch Bob Next & Wrap Want the data behind the discussion? S3 Partners is the only complete data set for long and short positioning. Follow Risk & Return for a new edition every week, and visit s3partners.com to see how the seventh category of market data can sharpen your trading. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts so you never miss an episode.

The $2 Trillion Space IPO, and the Most Crowded Trade Nobody's Talking About.

Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan open on the biggest IPO event in years: SpaceX going public at a $2 trillion-plus valuation, a deal Charlie frames as a cultural moment and "a referendum on how the country feels about itself." They dig into the S-1 — the AI buildout, the Starlink and xAI pieces folded in, the ~$100B raised across debt and equity — and Bob's central question for any pre-cash-flow company: when does the cash-burn number get to zero? On the short side, Bob notes the data is too volatile in the first weeks to read cleanly, estimating only around 10 million shares short — light for a deal this size. Then Bob brings the S3 data content, starting with hedge fund positioning by sector. Tech is the biggest HF long at 28% of all long positions, yet that trails its 32% market-cap weight — so funds are underweight tech and hedging it right at index levels. The real signal is Health Care, the most crowded trade on a percentage-of-float basis, flashing red on both crowding and capacity. Bob then walks the space sector shorts, where short interest tracks business maturity rather than the "space" label, Z-scores reveal conviction, and thematic ETFs see almost no activity as managers make targeted single-name bets — with Virgin Galactic seeing steadily mounting short interest. The back half turns to the Fed holding rates under Kevin Warsh, the Iran memorandum of understanding and its effect on oil and gas prices, and a closer look at New York City's cash crunch under the new mayor — widening municipal bond spreads, the reluctance to issue revenue anticipation notes, and why it could be a canary in the coal mine. Closing notes on private supper clubs, the Bruno brothers, and a feel-good podcast story. For more information on the data featured in the episode visit S3Partners. com 00:00 — Opening 01:37 — The $2 Trillion Space IPO: A Cultural Moment 04:07 — Reading the S-1: When Does Cash Burn Get to Zero? 09:48 — Short Interest on Space Stocks: Selective 25:02 — S3 Data: Hedge Fund Positioning by Sector 28:19 — Health Care Is Flashing Red: The Most Crowded Trade 30:35 — Space Sector Shorts, Z-Scores, and Virgin Galactic 32:57 — The Fed, Oil, and the Iran Memorandum35:00 — NYC's Cash Crunch: A Canary in the Coal Mine 43:13 — Feel-Good Stories and Supper Clubs 49:01 — Closing Thoughts

The SpaceX IPO, APAC Long/Short Positioning & What Iran Means for the 10-Year

Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan broadcast from their respective vacations for a wide-ranging vacation edition of Risk & Return. Charlie opens with a media spat over his California election comments and a broader critique of the mainstream press before pivoting to the real market story: the SpaceX IPO priced at a staggering $75 billion. Bob breaks down how the KOSPI short call from last week played out — semis got hit hard — and walks through APAC positioning trends, Wolfspeed's convert arb dynamics, and Maersk's covering-led squeeze risk. The duo also revisit the Andrew Left verdict: was this a criminal case or a compliance failure? And with Iran tensions escalating and the 10-year yield climbing, Bob and Charlie weigh what a Kevin Warsh-led Fed might do next — and what traders can't afford to ignore going into the weekend. Chapters: 00:00 — Opening 02:25 — Media Criticism: CNN, the California Election Story & Mail-In Ballot Debate 09:00 — New York's Decline, Bari Weiss at CBS & the State of Political Media 15:45 — Markets Check: KOSPI Shorts Pay Off, CPI Anxiety & the 10-Year Yield 25:50 — APAC Short Interest, Wolfspeed Convert Arb & Maersk Squeeze Risk 31:20 — SpaceX IPO: $75 Billion, Retail Allotments & Lessons from the Facebook Debacle 35:50 — Toe-to-Toe on Left: Compliance Failures, Jack Welch, and Moving Markets 43:00 — Wrap-Up For more information about the data featured in the episode visit S3Partners.com