The Boardroom Path
How should boards be thinking about risk, capital and growth when the UK economy is structurally constrained and the geopolitical landscape is shifting beneath their feet? In this episode of The Boardroom Path, host Ralph Grayson speaks with Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, about why macroeconomic awareness is no longer optional for board directors. They explore the structural challenges facing UK PLC, from the rationing of energy, capital and land to a labour market squeezed by rising on-costs and the early disruption of AI, and why boards need to reframe risk as an enabler of growth rather than something to be feared. With UK 30-year gilt yields recently hitting 5.787%, their highest level since 1998 [https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202605058001/uk-30-year-gilt-yields-hit-28-year-high-amid-political-concerns], and political uncertainty mounting ahead of the May elections, Simon explains why patient capital and strategic boldness could unlock a significant revaluation opportunity for UK assets. From the legacy of Brexit and the defence spending pivot to the competing forces of AI-driven disinflation and geopolitical fragmentation, this conversation offers a clear-eyed roadmap for NEDs navigating an increasingly complex operating environment. * (00:00) - Welcome to The Boardroom Path * (02:31) - A Career Spanning the Public and Private Sector * (04:27) - Why Boards Need Macro Thinking in a Polycrisis World * (06:27) - Capital Markets, Shareholder Engagement and Rationing * (09:00) - Corporate Governance in a Post-Ukraine Economy * (10:47) - The Black Knight Economy: Resilience amid Structural Constraint * (15:51) - Brexit, EU Alignment and the Defence Opportunity * (19:34) - The Rationing of Inputs: Energy, Land and Capital * (22:23) - UK Investibility and the Patient Capital Opportunity * (30:19) - Permacrisis, Inflation and Interest Rate Risk * (33:12) - AI, Labour Costs and the Flexibility Imperative * (41:54) - The Case for Strategic Boldness Simon French: Simon French is Managing Director, Chief Economist and Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, one of the UK's leading independent investment banks and the largest adviser to UK-quoted companies. He produces market-leading and II/Extel top-ranked economic analysis and is a member of the firm's Senior Leadership Team. Before joining Panmure Gordon in 2014, Simon spent twelve years as an economic adviser in the UK Civil Service, serving at the Department for Work and Pensions, the Cabinet Office and HM Treasury. He holds undergraduate and postgraduate degrees in Economics and Finance from Durham University and is a member of the Government Economic Service and the Society of Professional Economists. Simon has a fortnightly column in The Times and is a regular contributor to BBC TV and Radio, CNBC, Bloomberg and Sky News, making him one of the most widely recognised economic commentators in the UK. Ralph Grayson: Ralph Grayson is a Partner in the Board Practice at Sainty Hird & Partners, bringing extensive experience in board-level recruitment, assessment, and advisory services. With a deep understanding of the corporate governance landscape, Ralph specialises in guiding senior executives as they transition into impactful boardroom careers. His thoughtful approach, combined with a passion for developing effective leaders, enables him to facilitate insightful conversations that equip aspiring and newly appointed Non-Executive Directors with the tools they need to succeed. Through The Boardroom Path, Ralph leverages his extensive professional network and expertise to empower listeners on their journey into the boardroom. Questions This Episode Answers: Should boards really pay attention to the macro environment, or just focus on their own P&L? Simon argues that even operationally excellent businesses keep being sideswiped by a series of poly-crises, from the financial crisis and Brexit to the pandemic, war and resurgent inflation. Macroeconomics need not dominate strategy, but boards that relegate the big picture face a steady succession of avoidable shocks. Why are UK gilt yields and borrowing costs rising? Simon points to two overlapping forces. Inflation risk from the Ukraine and Middle East conflicts is lifting the term premium, while political risk ahead of the May elections, and speculation about a leadership challenge, is being priced into gilts. For companies funded off the risk-free rate, that volatility matters. Is the weak labour market caused by AI or by rising employment costs? Simon sits firmly in the on-cost camp. He attributes the current softening mainly to layered employer national insurance, the national living wage, the employment rights bill and auto-enrolment, which have raised the cost of employing people far faster than productivity. AI's larger impact, he argues, comes later. Does the UK remain investible for global capital? Yes, but only for patient capital, Simon says. UK assets are keenly priced at valuation discounts, creating a genuine revaluation opportunity if a supportive political and macro backdrop emerges. Investors may have to tolerate conditions worsening before they improve, but the underlying value case is real. What should boards actually do differently at their next meeting? Simon urges two moves: engage seriously with scenario analysis of geopolitical risk and its structural legacies for supply and demand, and challenge whether the balance between caution and boldness is right, then bring the shareholder base along if a more growth-oriented strategy is needed. Episode Insights: * The UK economy's long-term productivity challenges are not a puzzle but the predictable result of rationing energy, capital and land, and reversing even one of these constraints would materially improve the growth outlook. * Corporate governance has entered a more pragmatic, post-Ukraine phase where formulaic ESG checklists are giving way to nuanced, context-specific approaches to risk and resilience. * UK assets are keenly valued by almost any metric, presenting a significant revaluation opportunity for patient capital willing to weather near-term political and macro uncertainty. * The current softening of the UK labour market is driven more by the overlaying of employer on-costs, national insurance, national living wage, employment rights legislation and auto-enrolment, than by AI displacement, though AI's impact will accelerate. * The structural gap in risk appetite between Europe and the US, visible in everything from pension allocation to capital markets culture, is the single biggest brake on European competitiveness and long-term wealth creation. Action Points: 1. Embed scenario analysis of geopolitical risk at board level: Move beyond short-term forecasting and build structured, recurring scenarios around the long-term implications of geopolitical fragmentation, from supply chain resilience to energy security and defence-sector exposure. Focus on structural legacies, not acute predictions. 2. Stress-test your capital structure for a higher-rate world: With UK 10-year gilt yields above 5% [https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/government-bond-yield/news/549655] and the Bank of England holding rates at 3.75%, boards should reassess assumptions around cost of capital, debt maturity profiles and the relative merits of public versus private financing. Patient, long-t...
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