Cattle Market Guys - Week Wrap Up 7-10-2026

Cattle Market Guys - Week Wrap Up 7-10-2026

Cattle inventories just hit their lowest levels since the 1950s, yet Walmart slashed ground beef prices 12% after political pressure — and cattle futures have now fallen for seven straight sessions. Brock and Jim break down how tight supply, soft retail pricing, and volatile feed costs are colliding to create a confusing market picture for producers heading into summer. In this Friday wrap for the week of July 10th, Brock and Jim dig into feeder cattle price data across weight classes, noting strength in the 600-649 category alongside softening in lighter 500-549 weight steers. They unpack the disconnect between Walmart's politically-driven price cut and actual farm-gate values, referencing reporting from the Cattle Site, Beef Magazine, and CoBank showing beef demand staying firm despite broader food inflation. Jim draws on his 1996 experience with feedyard margins during a corn price spike to explain why today's combination of falling cattle futures and rising feed grain costs demands caution on placements. The episode closes with a look at global trade dynamics, including rising US beef export value despite lower volume, improving access in Taiwan and Korea, and Brazil's record beef export growth capturing Chinese demand. Jim recalls the 2003 BSE case and its impact on export markets as a warning against assuming trade access stays constant. Domestic processing expansion news rounds out a discussion on quality, competition, and long-term market resilience in the cattle industry.

Cattle Market Guys - Tuesday Check In 7-7-2026

Packer losses have deepened to a staggering $295 per head as corn futures surge and boxed beef values soften — and that squeeze from both directions is putting hedging strategy front and center for cattle producers right now. Meanwhile, Brazil just raised its full-year trade surplus forecast to $90 billion, fueled by record beef exports that are eating into US market share. In this Tuesday market update, Brock and Jim break down the latest feeder cattle cash prices, including five to six weight steers holding steady near $457 per hundredweight and six-weight steers easing to $415.87. They dig into live cattle futures volatility tied to rising corn costs and softening cash trade, with Jim drawing on his 1996 experience with margin calls and over-hedged positions to explain why liquidity matters as much as price protection. The conversation then shifts to global beef trade, covering Brazil's record export surge, tightening antimicrobial inspection rules ahead of an EU deadline, and a political push to suspend proposed US tariffs tied to Brazil's October election. Domestic policy developments, including new tariff-rate quota legislation for imported beef, cattle, and lamb, round out the trade discussion. Finally, Brock and Jim examine the tightening US cattle supply picture, with total beef production projected down 4.5 to 5 percent year-over-year and cold storage reserves shrinking. Drawing parallels to the mid-1990s herd liquidation era, they explain why today's tight supply numbers may not fully hit cash prices for months, and why producers should be watching futures, trade, and production trends together rather than in isolation.

Cattle Market Guys - Week Wrap Up 7-3-2026

The Trump administration just dropped a bombshell: USMCA will not be extended, triggering a 10-year wind-down clock that has farm groups sounding alarms across the agricultural sector. With feeder cattle prices hitting historic highs and the cattle herd now the tightest since the 1950s, this week's Cattle Market Guys breaks down why the market is bracing for impact before the data even arrives. Brock and Jim open with a deep look at current feeder steer pricing, showing steady climbs across weight classes and a sharp jump in futures contracts over just five weeks. They then dive into the USMCA wind-down announcement, examining the fractured US-Mexico-Canada dynamics and new tariff-rate quota legislation targeting live cattle, beef, and lamb imports. Jim draws a compelling parallel to the 1994 NAFTA rollout, reminding producers that fear-driven herd decisions often backfire before real trade data emerges. The second half tackles supply fundamentals, unpacking the June Cattle on Feed report showing feedlot inventories rising for a second straight month, even as total beef production is projected to fall 4.5-5% in 2026. Brock and Jim explain why more cattle in feedlots doesn't mean more beef supply, and how the tightest cattle herd since the 1950s is squeezing everyone from jerky producers to retail meat counters. It's a data-driven, historically grounded conversation about navigating uncertainty without panic—essential listening for cattle producers watching both trade policy and herd economics collide this summer.

Cattle Market Guys - Tuesday Check In 6-30-2026

The U.S. and Mexico just opened a $50 million sterile fly facility in Chiapas capable of producing 100 million flies per week — and it may be the most important biosecurity development for cattle producers in years. New World screwworm cases are creeping north, and this is the primary weapon to push the eradication line back. Jim shares firsthand history from the original eradication effort that puts the stakes in sharp relief. In this Tuesday Market Update for June 30, 2026, Brock and Jim break down the latest feeder cattle price data, with 600-649 pound steers sitting at $413.01/cwt and lighter weights continuing to outperform at $454.45/cwt — but near-term forecasts point to softening ahead. The basis gap between cash and front-month futures at $368.94 is a signal producers shouldn't ignore. The episode also covers a coalition of 65 groups petitioning the FDA to end routine antibiotic use in livestock, a promising new BRD diagnostic tool out of Texas A&M, and heat stress production losses hitting European farmers. On the trade front, Australia has already filled its annual Chinese beef quota before mid-year, Senator Bill Cassidy has introduced tariff-rate quota legislation aimed at protecting domestic producers, and U.S. beef exports to Mexico show a soft April but a constructive year-to-date picture overall.

Cattle Market Guys - Week Wrap Up 6-26-2026

Cattle futures swung in two opposite directions in just 48 hours — and New World Screwworm detections are actively climbing across the southern tier. Both stories carry serious implications for cattle producers heading into the second half of 2026. This week's episode breaks down what's driving the volatility and what producers need to do right now. Brock and Jim open with a detailed market snapshot showing feeder steer prices have softened $14–$17 per hundredweight over the past month, with a notable basis gap between cash markets and front-month futures sitting near $360. Predictive model forecasts suggest a brief short-term lift before a pullback at the four-week mark — making timing decisions on cattle sales critical right now. From there, the conversation turns to the forces behind this week's futures whiplash: tight Cattle on Feed numbers providing supply-side support, offset by growing investor concern over consumer affordability. That demand concern connects directly to new data showing 4.7 million Americans have lost food stamp benefits, with food pantry demand hitting record levels — a meaningful headwind for beef demand at already-elevated price levels. The episode closes with an urgent biosecurity alert on New World Screwworm, where four new confirmed detections were reported in a single cycle. Jim shares a firsthand account from a 1993 flare-up as a reminder that this pest exploits any lapse in vigilance.