Cattle Market Guys - Tuesday Check In 5-26-2026

Cattle Market Guys - Week Wrap Up 7-3-2026

The Trump administration just dropped a bombshell: USMCA will not be extended, triggering a 10-year wind-down clock that has farm groups sounding alarms across the agricultural sector. With feeder cattle prices hitting historic highs and the cattle herd now the tightest since the 1950s, this week's Cattle Market Guys breaks down why the market is bracing for impact before the data even arrives. Brock and Jim open with a deep look at current feeder steer pricing, showing steady climbs across weight classes and a sharp jump in futures contracts over just five weeks. They then dive into the USMCA wind-down announcement, examining the fractured US-Mexico-Canada dynamics and new tariff-rate quota legislation targeting live cattle, beef, and lamb imports. Jim draws a compelling parallel to the 1994 NAFTA rollout, reminding producers that fear-driven herd decisions often backfire before real trade data emerges. The second half tackles supply fundamentals, unpacking the June Cattle on Feed report showing feedlot inventories rising for a second straight month, even as total beef production is projected to fall 4.5-5% in 2026. Brock and Jim explain why more cattle in feedlots doesn't mean more beef supply, and how the tightest cattle herd since the 1950s is squeezing everyone from jerky producers to retail meat counters. It's a data-driven, historically grounded conversation about navigating uncertainty without panic—essential listening for cattle producers watching both trade policy and herd economics collide this summer.

Cattle Market Guys - Tuesday Check In 6-30-2026

The U.S. and Mexico just opened a $50 million sterile fly facility in Chiapas capable of producing 100 million flies per week — and it may be the most important biosecurity development for cattle producers in years. New World screwworm cases are creeping north, and this is the primary weapon to push the eradication line back. Jim shares firsthand history from the original eradication effort that puts the stakes in sharp relief. In this Tuesday Market Update for June 30, 2026, Brock and Jim break down the latest feeder cattle price data, with 600-649 pound steers sitting at $413.01/cwt and lighter weights continuing to outperform at $454.45/cwt — but near-term forecasts point to softening ahead. The basis gap between cash and front-month futures at $368.94 is a signal producers shouldn't ignore. The episode also covers a coalition of 65 groups petitioning the FDA to end routine antibiotic use in livestock, a promising new BRD diagnostic tool out of Texas A&M, and heat stress production losses hitting European farmers. On the trade front, Australia has already filled its annual Chinese beef quota before mid-year, Senator Bill Cassidy has introduced tariff-rate quota legislation aimed at protecting domestic producers, and U.S. beef exports to Mexico show a soft April but a constructive year-to-date picture overall.

Cattle Market Guys - Week Wrap Up 6-26-2026

Cattle futures swung in two opposite directions in just 48 hours — and New World Screwworm detections are actively climbing across the southern tier. Both stories carry serious implications for cattle producers heading into the second half of 2026. This week's episode breaks down what's driving the volatility and what producers need to do right now. Brock and Jim open with a detailed market snapshot showing feeder steer prices have softened $14–$17 per hundredweight over the past month, with a notable basis gap between cash markets and front-month futures sitting near $360. Predictive model forecasts suggest a brief short-term lift before a pullback at the four-week mark — making timing decisions on cattle sales critical right now. From there, the conversation turns to the forces behind this week's futures whiplash: tight Cattle on Feed numbers providing supply-side support, offset by growing investor concern over consumer affordability. That demand concern connects directly to new data showing 4.7 million Americans have lost food stamp benefits, with food pantry demand hitting record levels — a meaningful headwind for beef demand at already-elevated price levels. The episode closes with an urgent biosecurity alert on New World Screwworm, where four new confirmed detections were reported in a single cycle. Jim shares a firsthand account from a 1993 flare-up as a reminder that this pest exploits any lapse in vigilance.

Cattle Market Guys - Tuesday Check In 6-23-2026

New World screwworm has reached 15 confirmed cases in the United States, with three new Texas animals testing positive in the latest reporting period — and a critical sterile fly facility won't come online until late 2027. For cattle producers across the southern half of the country, the window for early detection is now, and Brock and Jim break down exactly what to watch for and who to call. In this Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim cover the full feeder cattle price picture, with 500–549 lb. steers holding near $449/cwt. despite a gradual month-long softening, and a notable basis gap between cash prices and front-month futures that producers need to pencil out carefully before making placement commitments. Four-week model forecasts suggest further price softening in weeks three and four — a signal worth stress-testing against current breakevens. The episode also breaks down emerging global feed supply risks, including a potential super El Niño threatening grain output, USDA's addition of 30 million base acres to ARC and PLC programs, and the longer-term concern of prime farmland converting to data centers and solar farms. Brock and Jim close with the June 19 USDA cattle-on-feed report showing inventory up 2% year-over-year, improving drought conditions across the Lower 48, and a seasoned reminder from Jim that when everyone feeds cattle and drought breaks at once, the market has a way of solving one problem by creating another.

Cattle Market Guys - Week Wrap Up 6-19-2026

Twelve confirmed screwworm cases on U.S. soil, $105 million in federal response funding, and a July 1st USMCA deadline that farm groups are calling potentially catastrophic — the cattle industry is navigating a minefield of compounding risks. This week on Cattle Market Guys, Brock and Jim break down everything producers in the southern tier and beyond need to know before it's too late to act. On the markets, six-weight steers have softened from $424 to $405 per hundredweight over the past month, and the four-week forecast shows further near-term pressure before a partial recovery — while lighter five-weight calves continue to hold a firm premium. Brock and Jim explain why this week's futures volatility was largely a trader story rather than a cash fundamentals story, and why commercial operators shouldn't read too much into the noise. The episode also digs into the screwworm threat with historical context from Jim's own ranching background, covering what early detection and rapid reporting actually look like on the ground. On trade, U.S. beef exports to China fell 11% in April, and USMCA faces a renewal deadline with genuine uncertainty after President Trump signaled a preference against a new agreement. With Mexico's feeder cattle pipeline already disrupted by screwworm border closures, Brock and Jim examine what a deal collapse could mean for stocker and backgrounding operations that depend on cross-border supply.