Bear Market Rally, New Bull Market, or Both

The Federal Reserve June 2023 FOMC Meeting and Economic Projections

The goal of this podcast is to help to educate as many individuals as possible on markets, the economy, and financial planning topics. The Fed now sees slightly higher economic growth, unemployment rising a little slower, and inflation running slightly higher through the remainder of 2023 based on their June projections versus their March projections. Inflation has come down the fastest over the last 12 month outside of a recession. Is the Fed continuing to fight the last war of inflation, as the potential of excess tightening working with a lag leading to a potentially deeper economic contraction? After the Fed pause at the June meeting, what is the likelihood of further rate hikes? These choices can lead to different outcomes for the economy and therefore investing. Let’s look at their projections from June and what they mean for future meetings and the economy.

The Feds March Economic Projections and What It Means for their May Meeting and the Markets

I believe that educated investors = successful investors. The goal of this podcast is to help to educate as many individuals as possible on markets, the economy, and financial planning topics. The Fed now sees growth slower, unemployment rising a little slower, and inflation running slightly higher through the remainder of 2023 based on their March projections. This forces the Fed to make a choice, do they focus on supporting the weakening economic outlook, or continue to prioritize the fight against higher but slowly falling inflation? Does the recent banking crisis cause them to rethink potential rate hikes after the May meeting. These choices can lead to different outcomes for the economy and therefore investing. Let’s look at their projections from March and what it means for the May meeting.

Banking Crisis of 2023

I believe that educated investors = successful investors. The goal of this podcast is to help to educate as many individuals as possible on markets, the economy, and financial planning topics.  When the Fed and other Central Banks tend to overtighten monetary policy, things tend to break. In this instance, the banking system started to break leading to runs on deposits and banks. We will look at the banking crisis, is it over, and what it means for the markets and the economy.

Bear Market Rally, New Bull Market, or Both

I believe that educated investors = successful investors. The goal of this podcast is to help to educate as many individuals as possible on markets, the economy, and financial planning topics. The question that investors are starting to ask is the rally off the low in October for the S&P 500 just another of the bear market rallies that we saw last year, the start of a new bull market for stocks, or potentially both. Let’s look at the data for each outcome.

The February 2023 Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting

I believe that educated investors = successful investors. The goal of this podcast is to help to educate as many individuals as possible on markets, the economy, and financial planning topics. Let’s take a look at the meeting from February to see where the Fed stands.