2026 update: a tale of two markets

2026 update: a tale of two markets

The headlines in the first half of 2026 were loud: a war in Iran, oil above $100 a barrel, inflation concerns and a weakening consumer. None of it was enough to derail markets, says Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management. He breaks down the earnings and economic backdrop that drove returns across U.S., Canadian and international equities, explains why Canada and the U.S. are now heading in opposite directions on interest rates, and makes the case that any volatility in the second half of 2026 may turn out to be an opportunity.

What's weighing on the Canadian dollar?

While investors were focused elsewhere, the Canadian dollar quietly fell almost 5% against the U.S. dollar over the past two months. Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, explains the two forces driving that weakness: falling oil prices and a widening gap between Canadian and U.S. interest rates. With the Bank of Canada likely to shift its focus from inflation to a slowing economy, and the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to raise rates further, his view is that the pressure on the loonie may not be over.

Has the market run out of things to worry about?

Markets don't climb because everything is fine. They climb because everyone is convinced it isn't, says Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management. He explains why the wall of worry that carried markets through the first half of 2026 has largely come down, and why that shift raises a simple question: what will carry the markets from here? He breaks down what history says about mid-term elections, why earnings remain the real floor under this market, and why the set-up for the second half of the year is more constructive than many investors might expect.

Is the boom coming with a price tag?

Two years ago, incoming U.S. Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh warned that central banks were getting too comfortable with higher inflation and called it very dangerous. Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, explains why that warning looks prescient today. With most central banks worldwide running above their inflation targets, and bond yields climbing, the boom in labour markets and asset prices is coming with a cost. The question is how central banks respond, and whether markets are ready for that answer.

Are equities a good hedge against inflation?

Is inflation bad for stocks? Ashish Utarid, Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy at IG Wealth Management, went back through 76 years of market data to test that assumption, and the answer is more nuanced than most investors might expect. Stocks have been at least partial inflation hedges across most of the range we've actually lived through. The real risk isn't the inflation level itself; it's the policy response and whether that response tips the economy into a downturn.