Episode 103: Missouri MHDC Opens Public Comment on 2028 QAP

Episode 103: Missouri MHDC Opens Public Comment on 2028 QAP

The Missouri Housing Development Commission (MHDC) has opened a public comment period to gather input on topics under consideration for its 2028 Qualified Allocation Plan (QAP). With this window opening nearly two years ahead of the plan's effective year, developers, syndicators, lenders, and investors active in Missouri have an early and meaningful opportunity to influence how LIHTC and MHDC resources will be allocated — before internal drafts are even in circulation. Key Takeaways: * MHDC governs allocation of both 9% and 4% LIHTC through its annual QAP and associated Notice of Funding Availability (NOFA). * The comment period targets the 2028 QAP — opening approximately two years ahead of the plan's effective year, which is earlier than many peer state HFAs. * Written comments can be submitted directly to MHDC and are formally incorporated into the QAP development process. * Key policy levers subject to change include scoring criteria, basis limits, income targeting requirements, set-aside categories, and developer fee structures. * Early input — submitted before internal drafts are circulated — typically carries more influence than comments on a published draft. * Missouri is one of the more active Midwest HFAs; QAP changes have direct implications for project feasibility and investor returns across the state's deal pipeline. * Stakeholders with views on rural vs. urban prioritization, income averaging, deeper affordability scoring, or basis boost policy should act now. Missouri's decision to solicit feedback this early signals that MHDC intends a deliberate, stakeholder-informed process for the 2028 cycle. For organizations with Missouri projects in development or under evaluation, this is the moment to engage — not after a draft is released. Monitor MHDC communications for draft publication timelines and plan your comment strategy accordingly. Subscribe to The Spring Street Brief for daily updates on affordable housing in America.

Episode 102: Build Housing Affordably Act Targets BABA Reform

A bipartisan House bill — H.R. 9311, the Build Housing Affordably Act — has been introduced by Rep. Mike Flood (R-NE), Chairman of the House Housing and Insurance Subcommittee, and Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-NH). The legislation targets Build America Buy America Act (BABA) requirements that have created cost and timeline friction for affordable housing developers relying on federal funding streams, including LIHTC deals with federal program exposure. Key Takeaways: * H.R. 9311, the Build Housing Affordably Act, was introduced as bipartisan legislation in the U.S. House of Representatives. * Lead sponsors are Rep. Mike Flood (R-NE), Housing and Insurance Subcommittee Chairman, and Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-NH) — a pairing designed to attract votes from both sides of the aisle. * The bill directly addresses BABA domestic content procurement requirements that have added cost drag and schedule risk to affordable housing deals with federal funding exposure. * The stated goal is to "strike a better balance" between promoting domestic production and sustaining the affordable housing development pipeline — framed as a housing production argument, not a deregulatory one. * BABA compliance friction has hit deals involving HUD programs and certain bond-financed structures particularly hard, where domestic supplier availability and pricing have not kept pace with project needs. * Flood's subcommittee chairmanship gives the bill a credible path to markup — making this more than a messaging exercise. * Developers with projects in predevelopment that rely on federal funding should model both current BABA compliance costs and potential relief scenarios as the bill advances. BABA has been a quiet deal-killer and cost inflator across the affordable housing pipeline since its requirements expanded under the infrastructure law. This bill represents the first serious, bipartisan legislative vehicle aimed at resolving that tension. Developers, syndicators, and lenders should monitor committee activity closely and engage their federal advocacy channels now — the window for industry input on bill language is typically widest before markup. A Senate companion bill, if introduced, would signal genuine momentum toward enactment. Subscribe to The Spring Street Brief for daily updates on affordable housing in America.

Episode 101: May Housing Starts Drop 15% as Multifamily Craters

May housing starts fell 15.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.18 million units, but the headline understates the real shock: multifamily construction cratered 40.2% in a single month to an annualized pace of just 295,000 units — down 14.2% year-over-year. For LIHTC developers, syndicators, and lenders, the data lands at a critical moment, signaling that the construction pipeline is under serious stress from elevated interest rates, rising costs, and persistent labor shortages. Key Takeaways: * Overall May housing starts fell 15.4% to a 1.18 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (HUD/Census Bureau). * Multifamily starts dropped 40.2% in May to a 295,000 annualized pace — the sector is down 14.2% vs. May 2025. * Single-family starts declined 1.9% to an 882,000 annualized rate, down 6.7% year-over-year; homes under construction at 587,000, off 5.9% from a year ago. * Multifamily permits fell 2.8% to a 527,000 annualized pace in May, though they remain up 2.5% vs. May 2025 — a modest forward-pipeline signal worth watching. * The Northeast is the only region running positive on both starts (+17.5% YTD) and permits (+10% YTD); the South is down 6.7% on permits YTD. * NAHB's June builder sentiment survey weakened further, with elevated mortgage rates and affordability challenges cited as primary headwinds. * New LIHTC transactions underwriting today face elevated feasibility risk — the starts-to-permits gap indicates financing and cost execution, not demand, is where deals are stalling. The divergence between permits (relatively stable) and starts (sharply lower) is the key signal for affordable housing finance professionals. It suggests developers intend to build but cannot make the numbers work at current cost and rate levels — a dynamic that directly pressures LIHTC equity pricing, increases gap financing needs, and may drive further requests for basis boosts or state subsidy layering. Teams actively underwriting new transactions in the South and West should stress-test construction budgets more aggressively and revisit financing structures before locking commitments. Subscribe to The Spring Street Brief for daily updates on affordable housing in America.

Episode 100: Fed Rate Hike Risk and the LIHTC Development Outlook

Bond markets have shifted from pricing in Fed rate cuts to assigning greater-than-even odds to a rate hike — a reversal with direct consequences for LIHTC developers, syndicators, and lenders. With core inflation at a three-year high of 3.3%, headline CPI at 3.8%, and the two-year Treasury up more than 70 basis points since March, the rate environment for affordable housing finance has materially tightened. This episode breaks down the macro forces behind the shift and what they mean for deals in the pipeline today. Key Takeaways: * The two-year Treasury has risen more than 70 basis points since March, reflecting a bond market repricing from easing to potential tightening. * Core PCE inflation is running at 3.3% — a three-year high and well above the Fed's 2% target — eliminating near-term justification for rate cuts. * Headline CPI reached 3.8% year-over-year, also a three-year high, driven in part by energy and commodity prices tied to the Iran conflict and lingering tariff impacts. * Q1 and Q4 2025 GDP averaged just 1% annualized growth, while the personal saving rate fell to 2.6% — the lowest since June 2022 — signaling household financial stress relevant to rental demand underwriting. * Single-family built-for-rent starts fell 26% on a four-quarter basis to 62,000 homes, reflecting broad developer caution that should be mirrored in affordable pipeline assumptions. * Mortgage rates are expected to remain above 6% through 2026, keeping pressure on 4% LIHTC bond pricing and debt service coverage in new construction deals. * Residential construction added only 900 jobs in May, led by remodeling — a signal of constrained new-build capacity that affects affordable housing timelines and labor cost assumptions. The rate environment has changed faster than many pipeline deals were underwritten to handle. With no credible near-term catalyst for Fed easing and geopolitical uncertainty keeping inflation elevated, LIE-tek developers and their capital partners should be revisiting interest rate stress tests before commitment, not after. A resolution of the Iran conflict remains the most plausible inflation relief valve, but the timeline is unpredictable. Deals that are thin at today's rates deserve a hard look now. Subscribe to The Spring Street Brief for daily updates on affordable housing in America.

Episode 99: Cinnaire Closes $307M LIHTC Equity Fund

Cinnaire has closed Fund for Housing Limited Partnership 45 (Fund 45), a $307 million LIHTC equity fund targeting the creation and preservation of 2,259 affordable housing units across 27 properties in 10 states. The fund will directly benefit an estimated 5,196 residents and represents one of the larger single-fund LIHTC equity closes in Cinnaire's history — a notable signal of sustained institutional appetite for affordable housing tax credit investment. Key Takeaways: * Fund 45 closed at $307 million in LIHTC equity — a significant raise in the current rate environment. * The fund will finance 2,259 affordable housing units across 27 properties in 10 states. * An estimated 5,196 residents will benefit directly from Fund 45 investments. * The fund explicitly blends new construction with preservation, giving Cinnaire pipeline flexibility across deal types. * Geographic diversification across 10 states signals a risk-management structure designed for institutional corporate investors. * The close indicates continued investor demand for LIHTC equity despite tax policy uncertainty and compressed deal economics. * Developers in Cinnaire's Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Southern footprint should engage now on fund allocation and deal timing. Fund 45's close arrives at a moment when preservation pipelines are competing aggressively for equity capital alongside new construction. Cinnaire's ability to blend both deal types into a single $307 million vehicle — and close it — suggests the fund structure resonated with investors seeking diversification. Developers and syndicators should treat this as both a market signal and a near-term equity access opportunity, particularly as deployment timelines will shape deal economics for participating properties through the remainder of the year. Subscribe to The Spring Street Brief for daily updates on affordable housing in America.