Top Traders Unplugged

When official data starts serving politics, markets lose their anchor. Alan Dunne and Niels examine the quiet shift unfolding as the U.S. edges closer to emerging market behavior - firing statisticians, sidelining inconvenient numbers, and pressuring the Fed ahead of a consequential leadership reshuffle. With labor supply falling, growth stalling, and tariffs acting as stealth taxes, the Fed’s playbook no longer fits the moment. Behind the scenes, hedge fund power brokers position themselves to shape what comes next. Plus, an unvarnished look at trend following’s drawdown, the lazy critiques making the rounds, and why so many allocators still miss the point. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter [https://twitter.com/alanjdunne]. Episode TimeStamps: 01:32 - What has caught our attention recently? 08:53 - Dunne's global macro overview 13:31 - Is our understanding of growth and GDP outdated? 17:52 - The Fed is under threat from multiple angles 21:38 - Dunne's impression of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for Fed chairman 26:43 - An odd juxtaposition with hedge fund titans' influences on the Fed 32:35 - Industry performance update 37:30 - Our takeaways from The Wall Street Journal's article on Trend Following 43:35 - Why should investors even consider managed futures in the first place? 45:40 - Has Dunne ever been on the verge of cutting trend? 52:08 - Do long term investors really need diversifiers? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]

What if our most trusted economic statistic is pointing us in the wrong direction? Diane Coyle joins Kevin Coldiron to explore why GDP - long treated as a proxy for progress - now obscures more than it reveals. As economies shift toward services, intangibles, and unpaid digital labor, much of today’s value creation falls outside the frame. Drawing on her new book, The Measure of Progress, Coyle makes the case for a new way of seeing - one that captures time, trust, and the real foundations of growth. The question isn’t how fast we’re moving. It’s whether we’re measuring the right road. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack [https://kevincoldiron.substack.com/] & read his Book [https://riseofcarry.com/]. Follow Diane on X [https://x.com/dianecoyle1859?lang=en] and read her book. [https://www.amazon.com/Measure-Progress-Counting-Really-Matters/dp/0691179026] Episode TimeStamps: 02:19 - Introduction to Diane Coyle 03:55 - How did the current systems of national accounts came to be? 06:55 - Why the national statistics doesn't add up 11:22 - The underlying problems of GDP 18:42 - How software pose a problem for measuring GDP and economic activity 23:25 - The challenges of cloud computing 26:39 - What is disintermediation and why is it a problem for economic statistics? 33:35 - The importance of considering time as a variable in economic statistics 38:38 - How technological innovations can mess up our ability to measure GDP 40:45 - Coyle's framework for improving how we measure GDP 46:34 - We are thinking about measuring national capital in the wrong way 48:48 - How human capital is measured 53:13 - What kind of statistics does Coyle value when trying to gauge the economy Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]

Mark Rzepczynski joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation shaped by tension between surface calm and deeper dislocation. From copper’s sudden collapse to signs of stress in liquidity and leverage, they explore how market behavior is increasingly defined by fragility, not fundamentals. With Fed policy boxed in, equity optimism rising, and stablecoins quietly redrawing the contours of the monetary system, the challenge for investors isn’t prediction - it’s positioning. They also confront the limits of complexity in models and why, in uncertain regimes, the discipline of doing less may offer the most resilience. This is trend following in context. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter [https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski]. Episode TimeStamps: 01:15 - What has caught our attention recently? 09:08 - The tough situation of Fed independence 10:43 - Industry performance update 14:27 - Mark's analysis of the current trend following performance 21:01 - Are we picking up long term inflation trends? 23:04 - 2025 has given us something rare 26:05 - The core problem that trend followers face today 36:42 - The evolution of stablecoins 43:52 - The definition of financial bubbles is becoming diluted 53:11 - Risk - a feeling or a factor? 58:42 - The seductiveness of complexity 01:01:10 - Key observations from our conversation 01:07:17 - What is up for next week? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]

Steven Bell has seen the macro machine from every angle - Treasury insider, hedge fund manager, and chief economist. In this wide-ranging conversation with Alan Dunne, he traces the quiet erosion of economic orthodoxy and why AI, not tariffs, may prove the more destabilizing force. Bell explains how Fed independence is fraying, why wage dynamics matter more than headline inflation, and what investors miss when they over-index on models. With stories from trading floors and policy rooms alike, this episode captures a rare perspective: someone who’s watched markets evolve, not just from charts, but from inside the decisions that moved them. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter [https://twitter.com/alanjdunne]. Follow Steven on LinkedIn. [https://www.linkedin.com/in/steven-bell-61b06817/] Episode TimeStamps: 02:20 - Introduction to Steven Bell 05:37 - Has the challenge of forecasting economics changed? 10:27 - Was it easier to be a money manager back in the days? 13:11 - Is emotion and hysteria taking over markets? 16:48 - Tariffs disappearing? Forget it 21:41 - The economic impact of the recent CPI data 24:38 - How tariffs will impact workers and productivity 28:54 - Bell's outlook for inflation 32:15 - Do deficits even matter? 36:51 - How messy will the Fed's handling of inflation be? 44:16 - Who is a likely replacement for Powell? 45:11 - An AI productivity boom 49:14 - Bell's outlook for the economy 56:32 - Navigating the consensus view on the dollar as an economist 01:01:06 - Macro advise for other investors Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]

Andrew Beer and Tom Wroble return to join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a timely examination of how trend following is adapting, and why some say it may be losing its edge. Tom unpacks new research showing a quiet drift toward slower models, raising the question of whether CTAs are evolving or converging. Andrew pushes back on the prevailing wisdom around diversification, suggesting that complexity often obscures cost rather than delivering true value. From shifting model speeds to the incentives shaping manager behavior, this is a conversation about what trend following is becoming... and what investors risk overlooking as some strategies grow more complex in pursuit of outperformance. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter [https://twitter.com/andrewdbeer1]. Follow Tom on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-wrobel-0187ba1a2/], Episode TimeStamps: 01:52 - What has caught our attention recently? 06:11 - Industry performance update 07:44 - Wrobel's perspective on the current CTA environment 09:32 - Key findings from Wrobel's recent paper 14:51 - The shape is key for managing risk 17:26 - How changes in the underlying managers affect replication strategies 22:10 - Is there such a thing as a happy "medium" in trading speed? 28:09 - Are replication strategies less challenged when selecting markets? 33:35 - The structure of an allocator 36:12 - How much tracking error is acceptable in replication? 42:14 - Trend is doing better than people expect 43:49 - The Voldemort of the trend following space 51:02 - Are ultra diversified portfolio merely a party trick? 56:25 - The challenges of slippage and implementation cost 01:03:49 - It all comes down to the predictability of trends 01:06:23 - Let's talk about the data, please 01:09:01 - Common misunderstandings of trend 01:12:12 - What is up for next week? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]