Jason Shapiro: How the COT Report Detects Where the Herd Is Trapped | Unknown Market Wizards

Why the Mag-7 Are at Risk: The HHI Warning No One Wants to Hear | Gina Martin Adams CMT

How can you decipher the true tactics hidden behind the US stock market without falling into the traps of retail sentiment? In the grand championship of global finance, anyone playing without structured data steps onto the field already at a disadvantage.In this episode, Flávio Lemos (CMT) and Raphael Figueredo (RAFI) host Wall Street strategy heavyweight Gina Martin Adams (CFA, CMT)—formerly Global Head of Portfolio Strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence and currently Chief Strategist at HB Wealth. Known as a high-performance tactical commentator, Gina opens the "black box" of the institutional market and reveals the inner workings of the MVVP Factor Model and the Market Pulse index.Understand what the sophisticated Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) is signaling about the dangerous market concentration of the "Magnificent 7" (Mag-7) and why her macro models indicate the S&P 500 is trading "four turns too rich" relative to 2026 macroeconomic fundamentals. It is a masterclass on passive capital flows in US retirement accounts, sector rotation, and the definitive removal of emotion from trading through historical backtesting probabilities.👑 Subscribe to the @TraderBrasil channel and turn on notifications: https://www.youtube.com/@traderbrasil?sub_confirmation=1🎬 Binge-watch the complete Season 1 to get the institutional alpha: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsYx2Dz1Mlg&list=PLd9k0T-3QIYcVVJCzfJzUY99joymZrURl🤖 2 QUESTIONS What is the MVVP Factor Model developed by strategist Gina Martin Adams?ANSWER: The MVVP Model (often simplified as MVP) is a quantitative, systematic, long-only asset allocation framework designed to select high-performing stocks in a sector-neutral manner. The acronym represents four fundamental market factors: Momentum, Value, Volatility, and Profitability.How does the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) assess the health and current concentration of the S&P 500?ANSWER: The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index is an advanced mathematical metric used to calculate asset concentration density within an economic ecosystem or stock index. Currently, it warns that S&P 500 concentration risk is at its highest post-1970s levels, showing extreme index dependency on a handful of AI-driven names. 👑 Subscribe to the @TraderBrasil channel and turn on notifications: https://www.youtube.com/@traderbrasil?sub_confirmation=1🎬 Binge-watch the complete Season 1 to get the institutional alpha: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsYx2Dz1Mlg&list=PLd9k0T-3QIYcVVJCzfJzUY99joymZrURl📌 TIMESTAMPS 00:00 - Official Opening: The visual language of global market psychology01:20 - Interview with Gina Martin Adams: The finance titan with dual CFA and CMT certification03:40 - Breaking out of the academic mold: Why the "Greenspan Conundrum" shattered fundamentalist models05:30 - The strategic transition between the Buy-Side and Sell-Side over 20 years07:15 - Inside the Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) research labs09:30 - The Market Pulse indicator: Quantifying greed and extreme fear through price data12:45 - The MVVP MODEL: How to weight Momentum, Value, Volatility, and Profitability17:15 - The HERFINDAHL-HIRSCHMAN INDEX (HHI): Deciphering the concentration risk of the Mag-719:50 - Bubble patterns: Comparing the current scenario with the 1920s, 1970s, and 1990s23:10 - The Artificial Intelligence (AI) thesis as a driver of global capital flow25:40 - Healthy market rotation vs. Risk of an imminent systemic crash28:15 - The hidden earnings recession in the S&P 500: The striking divergence of "Ex-Mag 7" stocks41:15 - The Confessional: Pinpointing the 2020 and 2022 lows vs. the pitfalls of tariff-based trade policies44:45 - Practical career advice: Why the markets outpace the textbooks47:00 - Where to read "Market Sense" reports on HB Wealth

The Global Liquidity Secret Driving Bitcoin & Crypto | Jamie Coutts CMT

How does global liquidity dictate Bitcoin and cryptocurrency cycles? Renowned macro strategist and Director of Crypto Analysis at Real Vision, Jamie Coutts (CMT, CFTe), reveals the institutional formula for tracking the flow of "smart money" through central bank balance sheets and the global M2 indicator.What is liquidity analysis applied to digital assets and how does it work? Jamie Coutts, who founded Bloomberg Intelligence's digital asset research product, explains that Bitcoin not only acts as a hedge against inflation but also as a true "global liquidity sponge." Because the cryptocurrency market operates continuously (24/7), 10 years of price history in the crypto ecosystem is equivalent to about 20 years of data in the traditional stock market. To anticipate major reversals and structural uptrends, the professional trader must monitor the rate of change of liquidity injected by central banks and government deficit spending. When global liquidity expands, marginal capital seeks exponentially growing assets driven by network effects, generating precise technical confluences on the charts.👑 Subscribe to the @TraderBrasil channel and turn on notifications: https://www.youtube.com/@traderbrasil?sub_confirmation=1📌 TIMESTAMPS (Chapters)00:00 - Why the 24/7 crypto market accelerates price information compared to stocks01:02 - Introduction to Jamie Coutts: Uniting Wall Street discipline with blockchain data03:00 - The "Aha" moment with Bitcoin and the solution to global currency devaluation05:30 - Understanding smart contracts and the integration of the DeFi ecosystem by large institutions08:20 - How crypto trading activity and volume compete with major global exchanges11:50 - Why monitoring global M2 and central bank balance sheets is the real cheat code of the market15:00 - The 3 mechanisms generating global liquidity: Commercial banks, central banks and spending Deficits19:30 - How to apply classic technical analysis (CMT) indicators to highly volatile assets21:00 - Tracking the signal in on-chain data: Network fees, active addresses, and the impact of reflective pricing27:10 - Layer 1 blockchain assessment: Network effects and liquidity dynamics between Ethereum and Solana31:00 - Wall Street's entry through spot ETFs and the financialization of Bitcoin36:00 - Altcoin Season: The use of "Market Breadth" indicators (Advance/Decline Line)39:00 - Jamie Coutts' cockpit: The exact order of operation and analysis of macro indicators every morning43:20 - Risk management in volatile markets and the filter of fundamental theses47:00 - The final signature: The best trade of my career (Japan 2008) and the worst tactical mistake (2009)#JamieCoutts #GlobalLiquidity #BitcoinMacro #TechnicalAnalysis #RealVision #OnChainData #tradersoftheworld 🐦 https://www.x.com/Jamie1Coutts ⁨@RealVisionFinance⁩ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━📲 FOLLOW TRADERBRASIL:━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━👇 STALK US (FOR ALPHA):🌐 Website: https://www.traderbrasil.com📷 https://www.Instagram/traderbrasil🎧 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7tMjGb2QtOZrAKmPHMuf6P?si=LTYQPx6GRhmahaNGLYFA8A🍏 Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/traders-of-the-world-podcast-with-flavio-lemos-cmt/id1858955458🐦 https://www.x.com/traderbrasil📺 MARATHON All Episodes: Traders of the World Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsYx2Dz1Mlg&list=PLd9k0T-3QIYcVVJCzfJzUY99joymZrURl (TO OBTAIN ALPHA)📚 Follow Flávio Lemoshttps://www.instagram.com/flaviolemoscmthttps://www.x.com/flaviolemoscmt🌐 Website: https://www.flaviolemoscmt.comhttps://www.youtube.com/@flaviolemoscmtCMT Association:🌐 https://cmtassociation.comhttps://www.youtube.com/@CMTAssociation1967━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━⚠️ LEGAL NOTICE (DISCLAIMER):━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━All content in this video and on this channel is strictly educational and informative.

Technical Analysis: Why is the "Strong Buy" the Top? Mike Moody, CMT

Did you know that the majority of "Strong Buy" recommendations from major brokerages happen exactly at the top of the market?Find out how top Wall Street managers are ignoring social media clamor to operate with pure mathematical objectivity. Click "Show More" to master the ultimate Relative Strength strategy that beat the market decades ago."Operate on the basis of signal and not noise." -Mike Moody, CMT━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━❓ QUESTIONS THIS EPISODE ANSWERS━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━What is cognitive error in institutional trading?👉 Cognitive error occurs when analysts embed systematic emotional biases in market projections. According to veteran Mike Moody, this causes large institutions to issue "Strong Buy" recommendations at market tops and sell orders at bottoms, driven by the herd effect and financial incentives tied to trading volume.How does the Systematic Relative Strength strategy work?👉 Systematic Relative Strength consists of dividing the price of a stock by its benchmark (such as the S&P 500) to mathematically measure its actual comparative strength of supply and demand. This strategy focuses on allocating capital to leading assets and holding them in the portfolio while they remain strong, outperforming Efficient Market Theory by exploring late reaction and investor herd behavior. Why use Point and Figure (P&F) Chart?👉 The Point and Figure chart is the most objective model in the world because it completely filters out the noise generated by time and volume variables. It focuses solely and exclusively on the intrinsic price movement through X (high) and O (low) columns, turning breakout signals and order execution 100% systematic and emotion-free. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━⏱️ VIDEO CHAPTERS :━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━00:00 - Introduction: How Cognitive Psychology Deciphers Market Tops03:18 - Why studying human behavior outperforms economics and trading07:25 - The fatal mistake of analysts: Buy recommendations at the top of the market10:11 - The Evolution of Dorsey Wright: The Power of Systemic Relative Strength13:54 - Relative Strength vs Academic Momentum: Demystifying the concept19:59 - Point and Figure (P&F) Charts: How to Filter Market Noise and Focus on Price Signals24:32 - Practical Analysis: The Real Case of Amphenol Action (APH)27:06 - Professionals vs Amateurs: The relentless discipline of selling and cutting losses31:29 - The most timeless advice for surviving the noise of algorithms38:39 - Closure and lessons from two decades of consistency🔔 Subscribe to the channel to master Wall Street strategies!#TechnicalAnalysis #RelativeStrength #TraderPsychology #MikeMoody ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━📲 FOLLOW TRADERBRASIL:━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━👇 STALK US (FOR ALPHA):🌐 Site: https://www.traderbrasil.com📷 https://www.Instagram.com/traderbrasil🎧 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7tMjGb2QtOZrAKmPHMuf6P?si=LTYQPx6GRhmahaNGLYFA8A🍏 Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/traders-of-the-world-podcast-with-flavio-lemos-cmt/id1858955458🐦 https://www.x.com/traderbrasil📺 MARATHON TO SEASON 1:All Episodes: Traders of the World Podcast Series https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsYx2Dz1Mlg&list=PLd9k0T-3QIYcVVJCzfJzUY99joymZrURl (TO OBTAIN THE ALPHA)📚 Follow Flávio Lemos📷https://www.Instagram.com/flaviolemoscmt🐦 https://www.x.com/flaviolemoscmt🌐 Website: https://www.flaviolemoscmt.comCMT Association: https://cmtassociation.com @CMTAssociation1967https://www.youtube.com/@flaviolemoscmt━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━📚 ABOUT THE TRADERS OF THE WORLD:━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━"Traders of the World" is TraderBrasil's podcast where Flávio Lemos, CMT, CFP®, interviews the biggest legends of world trading — from Wall Street to the global market.━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━⚠️ LEGAL NOTICE (DISCLAIMER):━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━All content in this video and channel is strictly educational and informational.

Generate Alpha While The Market Panics | Relative Strenght Strategy Kavita Agrawal CFA CMT

In this episode of the Traders of the World Podcast, we unlock the secrets of institutional Swing Trading with Kavita Agrawal, CMT and CFA. Kavita is the creator of the highly acclaimed "Relative Strength Quant Model" (RSQM) and one of the most respected technical analysts in the global market.If you want to learn how to trade charts with the precision of a quantitative model while maintaining the discretionary judgment needed to avoid market traps, this masterclass is a must-watch.(PT | EN | FR | ES | HI | AR | JP | CN Subtitles Available - Activate CC)Host Flavio Lemos explores Kavita's incredible journey. From receiving a Steve Nison candlestick book from her father to becoming the youngest person globally to clear all three CMT levels by age 21, Kavita's story is truly inspiring.🧠 WHAT YOU WILL LEARN IN THIS EPISODE:• The RSQM Model: How Relative Strength can track momentum and generate Alpha against the broader market.• The 75-Minute Secret: Why Kavita uses the 75-minute chart (and the 25-period RSI) to align trends and filter out market noise.• The "Monster Trade": How she identified the exact bottom of Balrampur Chini (BALRAMCHIN) in 2018 when the crowd was panicking.• Predicting the Meta Crash: The negative divergence setup that led her to warn fund managers about a 40% crash in Meta stocks weeks before the Cambridge Analytica scandal.• The Psychological Trap: Why the "worst trade" of her life (Asian Paints) was actually a profitable operation that exposed a dangerous behavioral bias.👉 Subscribe to  @TradersofWorld  [https://studio.youtube.com/channel/UC6OTSNaGXEGyIZF4fvYLq4w] , hit the bell icon, and drop a LIKE! Let us know in the comments: What is the most important lesson you've learned from a losing trade? 🔗 MEET KAVITA AGRAWAL:Website: https://exp-invest.inYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@kavitaagrawalcmtcfaLinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/kavitaagrawalcmtcfaTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/kavita518Telegram: https://t.me/tradewithkavitaFAQ:Q: What is the Relative Strength Quant Model (RSQM)? A: RSQM is a quantitative framework developed by Kavita Agrawal, CMT, CFA, that uses relative strength to identify stocks outperforming the broader market — generating alpha with lower drawdown risk than buy-and-hold. Q: Why does Kavita Agrawal use the 75-minute chart? A: The 75-minute chart divides the trading day into exactly four equal segments on Indian markets, reducing noise compared to standard 60-minute charts and aligning trend signals more cleanly with institutional order flow.━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━📲 FOLLOW TRADERBRASIL:━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━👇 STALK US (FOR ALPHA):🌐 Website: https://www.traderbrasil.com📷 Instagram: @traderbrasil🎧Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7tMjGb2QtOZrAKmPHMuf6P?si=LTYQPx6GRhmahaNGLYFA8A🍏 Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/traders-of-the-world-podcast-with-flavio-lemos-cmt/id1858955458🐦 Twitter/X: @traderbrasil📺 BINGE-WATCH SEASON 1:All Episodes: Traders of the World Podcast Serieshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsYx2Dz1Mlg&list=PLd9k0T-3QIYcVVJCzfJzUY99joymZrURl (TO GET THE ALPHA)📚 RESOURCES AND LINKS:📕 Flávio Lemos's books https://amzn.to/4nhCHkyFollow Flávio Lemos on Instagram: /flaviolemoscmton X: /flaviolemoscmt🌐 Website: https://www.flaviolemoscmt.comCMT Association: https://cmtassociation.com @CMTAssociation1967https://www.youtube.com/@flaviolemoscmt━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━📚 ABOUT TRADERS OF THE WORLD:━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━"Traders of the World" is the TraderBrasil podcast where Flávio Lemos, CMT, CFP®, interviews the greatest legends of world trading — from Wall Street to the global market.━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━⚠️ LEGAL NOTICE (DISCLAIMER):━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━All content in this video and on this channel is strictly educational and informative. #KavitaAgrawal #RSQM #SwingTrading #TradersOfTheWorld #Nifty50 #TechnicalAnalysis #IndianMarket

Jason Shapiro: How the COT Report Detects Where the Herd Is Trapped | Unknown Market Wizards

📊 Most traders lose trying to predict where the market will go. Jason Shapiro does the opposite — and profits.In this episode of Traders of the World, Flávio Lemos, CMT, interviews Jason Shapiro — the contrarian trader from Jack Schwager's book "Unknown Market Wizards" — alongside Vanessa Souza ( specialist in Market Profile and US index futures, 7 years in the market) and her husband Rafael Bentes (25 years of trading, international asset management desk).Jason operates exclusively based on the COT (Commitment of Traders) report to identify markets where the crowd is excessively positioned on one side — and then "fades the crowd." Result: in the 2015 Swiss Franc trade, he recouped 30x his risk in a single trade.━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━🧠 WHAT YOU WILL LEARN:━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━→ Positioning, Not Prediction: why predicting the market is a loser's game→ The Reversal Formula: "crowded" COT Report + "News Failure" = high probability entry→ Mathematical Stop Loss: where to position the stop (exactly at the low of the reversal candle)→ The Principle of 1:5 — "Focus all your time on where I'm going to lose $1 and win $5"→ Trading Diary: why Jason attributes the development of his method to a journal of mistakes→ Why Jason only trades futures (never options) — and the lesson of the put that went to zero even with the stock falling 25%→ Real Cases: the Swiss Franc trade in 2015 (30x the risk) and the worst mistake of the 90s━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━❓ QUESTIONS THIS EPISODE ANSWERS :━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━- What is the COT (Commitment of Traders) Report and how to use it to identify reversals?- How to identify a "crowded market" before a reversal?- What is "News Failure" and why is it the ideal trigger to enter?- How did Jason Shapiro profit 30x the risk in the collapse of the Swiss Franc (CHF) in 2015?- Why is short selling the S&P 500 "the worst idea ever invented by man"?- What is "fading the crowd" and how to implement it in practice?━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━⏱️ CHAPTERS:━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━00:00 - Teaser: "Making money when everyone else loses is addictive — and wrong in the long run" 02:05 - Introduction of Jason: the trader who enters the house when the crowd flees05:10 - How Jason got into the book "Unknown Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager14:40 - Why trying to predict the future of the market is a waste of time18:00 - The Secret of the COT (Commitment of Traders) Report24:50 - The Perfect Trigger: How to profit from a "News Failure"31:00 - The patience to wait for the market to close45:00 - Where to place the Stop Loss? (The Reversal Candle Technique)55:20 - Where is the herd trapped now? (Cocoa, Coffee, Sugar and others)01:06:00 - The Best Trade: The Profit Explosion in the Swiss Franc in 201501:12:50 - The Worst Mistake + The Trading Diary that Saved Jason's Career01:14:09 - "Short Selling the S&P is Like Taking Heroin" — Jason's Viral Analogy01:16:02 - Why Jason Only Trades Futures (Never Options)01:17:30 - Where to Find Jason: 300+ Free Videos (Crowded Market Report)━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━📚 RECOMMENDED BOOK: ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ (Jason Shapiro's Chapter)The Unknown Wizards of the Financial Market: The Best Traders You've Never Heard Of by Jack Schwagerhttps://amzn.to/4dijfQa━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━🔗 MEET JASON SHAPIRO:━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━🌐 Newsletter: https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com▶️ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCP37ZqE3gN9Jxl2jtnvO8eA━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━📲 FOLLOW TRADERBRASIL:━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━👇 STALK US (FOR ALPHA):🌐 Website: https://www.traderbrasil.com📷 Instagram: @traderbrasil🎧Spotify: 🐦 X: @traderbrasil📺 MARATHON:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsYx2Dz1Mlg&list=PLd9k0T-3QIYcVVJCzfJzUY99joymZrURl📚 LINKS:Follow Flávio Lemos on Instagram: /flaviolemoscmton X: /flaviolemoscmt🌐 https://www.flaviolemoscmt.comhttps://www.youtube.com/@flaviolemoscmt