The Box Office Podcast

Sure Plays a Mean Ping Pong...

This may be the very first weekend since I started this podcast, nearly two years ago, when we literally ran out of time to appropriately discuss the relevant new releases (and higher-profile holdovers). However, unless Kids Bop: The Movie pulls an ERAS Tour, I imagine the next (mostly holdover-centric) episode will make up the difference. No matter, having too many movies that are doing “too well” in for one reasonably-sized episode is an excellent problem to have. Courney Howard, longtime freelance critic for (among other joints) Variety, The AV Club and FreshFictionTV, makes her “in the fourth chair” debut to discuss why Avatar: Fire and Ash is continuing to kick butt, why and how Timothee Chalamet’s Marty Supreme opened so darn well and what did and didn’t work (commercially and artistically) for Anaconda. Among the topics are Avatar 3’s marquee characters (including a raising of the glass for Zoe Saldana), A24’s comprehensive Marty Supreme marketing campaign, and whether Anaconda (which is doing fine on its own smaller-scale merits) would have played better as a scarier, more violent “horror comedy.” Recommended Reading… * Scott Mendelson discussed how  [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/p/lionsgate-housemaid-now-you-see-me-long-walk-michael-saw-box-office]The Housemaid  [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/p/lionsgate-housemaid-now-you-see-me-long-walk-michael-saw-box-office]gave Lionsgate [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/p/lionsgate-housemaid-now-you-see-me-long-walk-michael-saw-box-office] its third (nearly) consecutive end-of-2025 success from the kind of films (The Long Walk and Now You See Me Now You Don’t that Adam Fogelson’s tenure should prioritize alongside franchise extensions and whatever nonsense Millennium wants them to distribute. * Jeremy Fuster’s year-end review (one of three parts [https://www.thewrap.com/creative-content/movies/2025-box-office-review-theaters-impact/]) discusses how theaters can’t just survive on semi-regular or periodic hot streaks or occasional overperforming tentpoles. * Lisa Laman offered five New Year’s resolutions [https://landofthenerds.blogspot.com/2025/12/five-new-years-resolutions-for-movie.html] for movie studios and movie theaters. * Max Deering’s 70th-anniversary retrospective on Charles Laughton’s  [https://www.fangoria.com/the-night-of-the-hunter-at-70-religious-horror-noire/]Night of the Hunter [https://www.fangoria.com/the-night-of-the-hunter-at-70-religious-horror-noire/] discusses the classic thriller’s influence on religious horror films. * Courtney Howard’s review of [https://variety.com/2025/film/reviews/my-oxford-year-review-1236476187/]My Oxford Year [https://variety.com/2025/film/reviews/my-oxford-year-review-1236476187/]for [https://variety.com/2025/film/reviews/my-oxford-year-review-1236476187/]Variety [https://variety.com/2025/film/reviews/my-oxford-year-review-1236476187/], which got a (comparatively… and not positive) extended reference amid this week’s podcast episode. * Ryan Scott notes the skewed circumstances [https://www.slashfilm.com/2064080/stranger-things-series-finale-hit-theaters-catch-box-office/] behind Thursday night’s theatrical screenings of the Stranger Things series finale, for which Netflix receives no box office revenue. The “price of the ticket” was a $20 coupon for concessions at that showing. It’ll help theaters but won’t explicitely boost year-end box office totals. Weirdly enough, it’s somewhat similar to my “modest proposal” for theaters to retroactively comp kids’ tickets to kids’ flicks upon purchase of concessions for that showing. Anyway, I took Ethan to Stranger Things this evening. The show itself was… fine (certainly better than the seven episodes that preceded it). However, it looked and played exceptionally well in my local AMC’s most enormous non-PLF auditorium. It won’t be, but it should be, a “come to Jesus” moment for the company likely about to buy Warner Bros. sometime next year. If you like what you hear, please like, share, comment, and subscribe (using a cartoon mallet) with every justified ounce of strength and passion. If you’d like to reach out and offer good cheer, request in-show discussions, or suggest ideas for bonus episodes, please email us at Asktheboxofficepod@gmail.com. * Scott Mendelson - The Outside Scoop [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/] and Puck News [https://puck.news/author/scott-mendelson/] * Jeremy Fuster - TheWrap [https://www.thewrap.com/author/jeremy-fuster/] * Lisa Laman [https://lisalaman.wixstudio.com/lisaportfolio] - Dallas Observer [https://www.dallasobserver.com/arts/dallas-forths-best-trans-inclusive-bars-and-businesses-21590543], Pajiba [https://www.pajiba.com/staff/lisa-laman.php], Looper [https://www.looper.com/author/lisalaman/], Comic Book [https://comicbook.com/author/lisa-laman/] and Autostraddle [https://www.autostraddle.com/author/lisalaman/] * Ryan C. Scott - SlashFilm [https://www.slashfilm.com/author/ryanscott/] and Fangoria [https://www.fangoria.com/authors/ryan-scott/] * Max Deering - Fangoria [https://www.fangoria.com/authors/maxwell_deering/] and Action For Everyone [https://open.spotify.com/show/6OWjC2VooChhsCT8UCzDlL] * Courtney Howard - Variety [https://variety.com/author/courtney-howard/], The AV Club [https://www.avclub.com/author/courtneyhoward] and FreshFictionTV [https://freshfiction.tv/author/courtney-howard/] Get full access to The Outside Scoop at scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Does Payakan Know It’s Christmastime at All?

Sure, you’ll probably be a bit today, celebrating either Christmas or National Jews Get Chinese Food and Go to the Movies Day. The plan is for our “mixed” family (Wendy is half-Jewish/half-Catholic/all-guilt) to do both: open presents in the morning and catch up with Anaconda later that afternoon. However, if you’re stuck at a Christmas gathering and wish to avoid small talk with relatives, here’s 95 glorious minutes to consume that’s subtler than trying to discreetly watch the next three episodes of Stranger Things on your phone. So do listen to our 100th (!) episode as you A) watch the world (of dread and fear) outside your window, B) dry your bitter, stinging tears, C) tune out the clanging chimes of doom and… sing it with me now… D) Thank God it’s them instead of you! To the business at hand. With a $347 million global opening weekend and a (by the time you read this) global total just over/under $500 million, Avatar: Fire and Ash looks to be doing that thing that every James Cameron movie since Piranha II has done. Onto the matters at hand... Yes, I checked, and even The Abyss ($53 million from a $9.5 million launch in 1989) and True Lies ($146 million from a $26 million debut in 1994) both legged out like proverbial motherf***ers, even if the underwater sci-fi flick barely doubled its $45 million budget in global grosses. Also, I’ll assume that Piranha II: The Awakening did eventually recoup its alleged $146k budget, but I digress. In a skewed irony of sorts, both of the elder statesmen (Luke and I) have mostly nice things to say about the third Avatar, while the comparative “barely old enough to rent a car” co-hosts are far sharper and crankier. To be fair, I actually agree with 85% of the criticisms offered, I just didn’t find them dealbreakers, and seeing it a second time in IMAX 3-D honestly “helped” with many of my initial comparative misgivings. Nonetheless, all parties are more than satisfied with the money procured by Jake and Neytiri and overjoyed with the strong grosses offered up via the slew of new movies in what looks to be an “everybody wins” year-end holiday blitz. Topics of discussion… — Jeremy Fuster offers the bluntest and most straightforward explanation of the ongoing divide between the Avatar franchise’s lack of comparative non-theatrical monetization (ie, merchandise) and the sheer-of-the-moment popularity of each respective chapter. He’ll eat his words when Payakan becomes next Halloween’s most popular costume, but he’s right for now. — Lisa Laman expresses frustration with Cameron’s comparative “just because he can” use of high-frame-rate, in a far more regular and less concentrated way than in The Way of Water. — Luke Thompson contrasts the conversation about the repetition of elements from Way of Water in this new chapter with the initial 45-year-old criticism lobbed at the “barely a single movie” The Empire Strikes Back. Scott Mendelson, meanwhile, compares Fire and Ash to the “Richard Donner Cut” of Superman II. — Scott Mendelson, alongside all of the Avatar 3 chatter, gives a hearty horay for everything else in the marketplace while arguing that The Housemaid, not Americana or Christy, is the kind of movie that should be a measuring stick for Sydney Sweeney’s alleged box office bankability. — There’s quite a bit more, including Action For Everyone’s Max Deering debuting as a real-time engineer/producer for the first of… well, however many times he finds it convenient to hide in the corner, while inquiring as to what Avatar 4 might look like, especially if (speculation alert) Cameron opts to produce instead of direct. Recommended Reading… — Scott Mendelson argues that the first [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/p/avengers-doomsday-marketing-highlights-disney-mcu-failures]Avengers: Doomsday [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/p/avengers-doomsday-marketing-highlights-disney-mcu-failures]trailer [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/p/avengers-doomsday-marketing-highlights-disney-mcu-failures] is an admission that Disney has spent the entire 2020s failing to cultivate new-to-MCU heroes, while debunking the [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/p/no-avatar-fire-and-ash-did-not-need] “Avatar 3 only opened well because of that teaser for The Odyssey” narrative. — Jeremy Fuster explained why another $2 billion-plus worldwide gross is probably not in the cards [https://www.thewrap.com/creative-content/movies/avatar-fire-and-ash-box-office-analysis/] for Avatar 3. — Lisa Laman offered up her picks [https://www.looper.com/2046366/best-2025-movie-trailers-ranked/] for the best trailers of 2025. — Ryan Scott discussed the late James Ransone’s under-the-radar MVP status [https://www.slashfilm.com/2059685/james-ransone-secret-weapon-best-horror-movies-2010s/]in a slew of iconic horror movies over the last 15 years. — Max Deering discusses the Alan Wake video game series and how it deals with hyperstition [https://www.fangoria.com/alan-wake-2-blends-hyperstition-and-horror/]. — Luke Y. Thompson defends [https://www.tvline.com/2040446/controversial-tv-show-endings-audience-critics-judged-harshly/] ten ill-received TV series finales. If you like what you hear, please like, share, comment, and subscribe (using a cartoon mallet) with every justified ounce of strength and passion. If you’d like to reach out and offer good cheer, request in-show discussions, or suggest ideas for bonus episodes, please email us at Asktheboxofficepod@gmail.com. Get full access to The Outside Scoop at scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Garbage Day for 'Ella McCay'

Since neither Ella McCay nor Silent Night Deadly Night caught fire (and ash) this past weekend, we invited Greenlight Analytics Director of Insights & Content Strategy Brandon Katz to discuss (among other things) the whole “Netflix wants to buy Warner Bros.” situation beyond just what it does or doesn’t mean for theatrical cinema. Among the topics of discourse… * The challenges with Hollywood still wanting to make “old-school movies” with little outside-the-bubble awareness of newer filmmakes and young(er) would-be movie stars, creating a reliance on decades-past-their-prime talent and decades-past-relevancy IP or (in terms of biopics) real-life historical figures. * Whether Netflix’s attempt to buy Warner Bros. for all of its network television shows and previously theatrical movies is an admission that the streamer broke the system for making new monetizable favorites and now must overspend to get all of the comfort food created and released by its “out of touch” competition. * Our favorite horror remakes, with an early-show conversation about the glories of Franz Oz’s Little Shop of Horrors and its original grimdark finale. * The tragedy of a once-viable high concept flick like The Dust Bunny debuting to relative theatrical obscurity. * Pre-release chatter about how Avatar: Fire and Ash might perform in relation to its predecessors both on opening weekend and (presumably) well into 2026. * And more, including A) Jeremy’s deadpan hilarious response when asked if he has seen Ella McCay and B) what Steven Spielberg should have called Disclosure Day. Recommended reading… * Scott Mendelson explains how [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/p/box-office-wicked-for-good-last-jedi-it-michael-jackson]Wicked For Good [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/p/box-office-wicked-for-good-last-jedi-it-michael-jackson]became [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/p/box-office-wicked-for-good-last-jedi-it-michael-jackson] one of those big-deal sequels that’s viewed as a commercial disappointment only because it’ll only earn about what was (at best) expected from its over-performing predecessor. * Jeremy Fuster offers a deep dive [https://www.thewrap.com/varanasi-rajamouli-indian-movies-box-office/] into India’s globally expanding theatrical footprint and its emerging issues, as seen in Hollywood, with a comparative “event movie or bust” mentality. * Lisa Laman offered her preemptive picks for the most likely surprise hits [https://www.looper.com/2047924/predicting-2026-biggest-surprise-box-office-hits/] and biggest bombs [https://www.looper.com/2047924/predicting-2026-biggest-surprise-box-office-hits/] of 2026 (I, for one, have faith that WB’s animated remake of Funny Games might be a big hit) and runs down the few(er) and not-so-proud big mid-to-late December releases that tanked [https://www.looper.com/2053047/christmas-blockbusters-bombed-box-office/] even amid the end-of-year holiday blitz. #Justice4MortalEngines and/or #Justice4PeterPan. * Ryan Scott discusses IDW’s new imprint, IDW Dark [https://www.fangoria.com/idw-dark-smile-quite-place-comic-preview/], which will offer comic book expansions for ongoing theatrical horror franchises like Smile and A Quiet Place. * Brandon Katz dug into a “favorite” topic of mine (and presumably yours, if you’re here), namely the commercial decline of the mid-budget “just a movie” movie [https://www.greenlightanalytics.com/box-office-behavior-netflix-mid-budget-viewership/]. If you like what you hear, please like, share, comment, and subscribe (using a cartoon mallet) with every justified ounce of strength and passion. If you’d like to reach out and offer good cheer, request in-show discussions, or suggest ideas for bonus episodes, please email us at Asktheboxofficepod@gmail.com (which I finally fixed so that it’ll forward to my personal business email, natch). * Scott Mendelson - The Outside Scoop [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/] and Puck News [https://puck.news/author/scott-mendelson/] * Jeremy Fuster - TheWrap [https://www.thewrap.com/author/jeremy-fuster/] * Lisa Laman [https://lisalaman.wixstudio.com/lisaportfolio] - Dallas Observer [https://www.dallasobserver.com/arts/dallas-forths-best-trans-inclusive-bars-and-businesses-21590543], Pajiba [https://www.pajiba.com/staff/lisa-laman.php], Looper [https://www.looper.com/author/lisalaman/], Comic Book [https://comicbook.com/author/lisa-laman/] and Autostraddle [https://www.autostraddle.com/author/lisalaman/] * Ryan C. Scott - SlashFilm [https://www.slashfilm.com/author/ryanscott/] and Fangoria [https://www.fangoria.com/authors/ryan-scott/] * Brandon Katz - Greenlight Analytics [https://www.greenlightanalytics.com/] and The Observer [https://observer.com/author/brandon-katz/] Get full access to The Outside Scoop at scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

A Labyrinth with No Exit, A Maze with No Prize

The good news is that the theatrical ecosystem is exactly as alive as the main distribution studios allow it to be, as Blumhouse’s Five Nights at Freddy’s notches what is now the third straight $60 million-plus opening weekend in a row. The bad news is that, once again, the fate of the multiplex ecosystem finds itself in existential peril through no real fault of its own. Yes, Warner Bros. gets caught… yet again… in a tug-of-war over the imaginary value of theoretically valuable IP in spite, or perhaps because, of its aspirational year at the box office. Needless to say, none of us are happy about what’s sure to be a definitive story that stretches well into 2026 if not well into 2027 or 2028, as any optimism afford to theaters now sits alongside a lit fuse and the likelihood of another legacy studio being taken off the board for no good reason. So… uh… well, at least this episode has jokes? Recommended reading… * Scott Mendelson explains how and why [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/p/box-office-avatar-fire-and-ash-can-open-well-below-star-wars-avengers], for those new to this game, Avatar: Fire and Ash will not need an opening on par with an Avengers or Star Wars movie to potentially soar to the upper rungs of the domestic and global box office. * Jeremy Fuster notes how, despite constant proclamations of doom, gloom and cultural irrelevancy, indie theaters have continued to comparatively thrive [https://www.thewrap.com/despite-box-office-fears-indie-theaters-are-still-thriving-filmbot-ceo-says/]. * Lisa Laman explains quite simply why “There are no good corporate mergers. [https://landofthenerds.blogspot.com/2025/12/there-are-no-good-corporate-mergers.html]” * Ryan Scott discusses how and why Alien Vs. Predator [https://www.slashfilm.com/2047505/alien-vs-predator-sci-fi-movie-profit-fox/]became [https://www.slashfilm.com/2047505/alien-vs-predator-sci-fi-movie-profit-fox/] one of 20th Century Fox’s most profitable movies. If you like what you hear, please like, share, comment, and subscribe (using a cartoon mallet) with every justified ounce of strength and passion. If you’d like to reach out and offer good cheer, request in-show discussions, or suggest ideas for bonus episodes, please email us at Asktheboxofficepod@gmail.com (which I finally fixed so that it’ll forward to my personal business email, natch). * Scott Mendelson - The Outside Scoop [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/] and Puck News [https://puck.news/author/scott-mendelson/] * Jeremy Fuster - TheWrap [https://www.thewrap.com/author/jeremy-fuster/] * Lisa Laman [https://lisalaman.wixstudio.com/lisaportfolio] - Dallas Observer [https://www.dallasobserver.com/arts/dallas-forths-best-trans-inclusive-bars-and-businesses-21590543], Pajiba [https://www.pajiba.com/staff/lisa-laman.php], Looper [https://www.looper.com/author/lisalaman/], Comic Book [https://comicbook.com/author/lisa-laman/] and Autostraddle [https://www.autostraddle.com/author/lisalaman/] * Ryan C. Scott - SlashFilm [https://www.slashfilm.com/author/ryanscott/] and Fangoria [https://www.fangoria.com/authors/ryan-scott/] Get full access to The Outside Scoop at scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

A Fast (But Not Furious) Hour With... Barry Hertz

As we wait and see if and how Universal chooses to embark on a presumably final film in the $7.3 billion-grossing Fast & Furious saga, Barry Hertz’s recently released Welcome to the Family: The Explosive Story Behind Fast & Furious, The Blockbusters That Supercharged The World offers an impressively comprehensive and potentially definitive look at the 25-year underdog success story. The author stopped by to offer his thoughts, some of which are in the book and some of which are “new to you,” regarding the many unexpected and unpredictable ups and downs, triumphs and tragedies, lucky breaks and unprecedented missed opportunities that slowly turned “a little car movie for spring break” into the top-grossing real-world, non-fantastical action-adventure franchise in Hollywood history. Without rehashing the book’s highlights, I’ll note that Hertz, Chief Film Critic for Toronto’s The Globe and Mail, knows that many of the readers know many of the key events along the way. As such, he uses the history we know as the starting point for a dissection into the how, why and why not related to the movies and moments that made headline news in the entertainment ecosystem and beyond. For example, Hertz discusses the Vin Diesel/Dwayne Johnson feud in terms of Vin being a Sylvester Stallone-ish “serious artist who found success only as a beefcake action hero” and Dwayne being an Arnold Schwarzenegger-ish “anything to please the crowds” showman. Maybe it’s good that Sly and Arnie didn’t truly team up until 2013’s Escape Plan, by which point neither of them had the butts-in-seats stardom to justify inflated egos. And, without giving too much away, he drops at least two nuggets here that A) didn’t make the book and B) genuinely surprised me. Okay, so one of them — a most unusual but on-brand request/demand regarding failed attempts to lure Vin Diesel back for a straight-up Fast and the Furious 2 — might make you laugh out loud. Oh, and gasp when I foolishly reveal my initial thoughts 25 years ago upon seeing a trailer for that first Fast and the Furious. But beyond that, we discussed the unassuming nature of that first summer 2001 B-movie, which turned out to be, well, Fast and the Furious is to Speed as Driven is to Blown Away. We noted how Universal’s failure to lock a conventional sequel in place until years after the fact, with two kinda-sorta sequels arriving in the interim, played a crucial role in crafting a before-it-was-cool cinematic universe. We also noted the notion of many as “fan” — such as myself — coming late to the party, as I was among many who were otherwise indifferent to the first four films, only to be knocked out by the inexplicably spectacular Fast Five. Anyway, among many other pleasures to be found in the prose and the conversation, I was most compelled by the in-hindsight reevaluation of Furious 7’s success in terms of keeping a post-mortem Paul Walker alive enough onscreen to bow out with grace. At the time, James Wan’s 2015 installment was an aspirational, fist-pumping, look-what-Hollywood-can-do success, in terms of technology, filmmaking craft, commercial success, and overall pop culture impact. Today? Well, like a lot of franchises, brands and showbiz players that inspired and entertained in the 2010s, there’s a particular “Die a hero or live long enough to become a villain” sentiment. Cut to 2025 as Vin Diesel teases a “return” for Paul Walker’s protagonist that few fans actually want amid a still-in-limbo “final” chapter that will arguably only get made, presuming it does, because Fast X ended on a cliffhanger. For all that naval gazing and more (less stick-up-Scott’s-ass) conversation about what’s still among Hollywood’s definitive “rip-off, don’t remake” triumphs (Fast & the Furious in 2001 > Point Break in 2015), check out the conversation and then order the book, courtesy of Grand Central Publishing [https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/barry-hertz/welcome-to-the-family/9781538771037/?lens=grand-central-publishing]. Get full access to The Outside Scoop at scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]