The Box Office Podcast

A Labyrinth with No Exit, A Maze with No Prize

The good news is that the theatrical ecosystem is exactly as alive as the main distribution studios allow it to be, as Blumhouse’s Five Nights at Freddy’s notches what is now the third straight $60 million-plus opening weekend in a row. The bad news is that, once again, the fate of the multiplex ecosystem finds itself in existential peril through no real fault of its own. Yes, Warner Bros. gets caught… yet again… in a tug-of-war over the imaginary value of theoretically valuable IP in spite, or perhaps because, of its aspirational year at the box office. Needless to say, none of us are happy about what’s sure to be a definitive story that stretches well into 2026 if not well into 2027 or 2028, as any optimism afford to theaters now sits alongside a lit fuse and the likelihood of another legacy studio being taken off the board for no good reason. So… uh… well, at least this episode has jokes? Recommended reading… * Scott Mendelson explains how and why [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/p/box-office-avatar-fire-and-ash-can-open-well-below-star-wars-avengers], for those new to this game, Avatar: Fire and Ash will not need an opening on par with an Avengers or Star Wars movie to potentially soar to the upper rungs of the domestic and global box office. * Jeremy Fuster notes how, despite constant proclamations of doom, gloom and cultural irrelevancy, indie theaters have continued to comparatively thrive [https://www.thewrap.com/despite-box-office-fears-indie-theaters-are-still-thriving-filmbot-ceo-says/]. * Lisa Laman explains quite simply why “There are no good corporate mergers. [https://landofthenerds.blogspot.com/2025/12/there-are-no-good-corporate-mergers.html]” * Ryan Scott discusses how and why Alien Vs. Predator [https://www.slashfilm.com/2047505/alien-vs-predator-sci-fi-movie-profit-fox/]became [https://www.slashfilm.com/2047505/alien-vs-predator-sci-fi-movie-profit-fox/] one of 20th Century Fox’s most profitable movies. If you like what you hear, please like, share, comment, and subscribe (using a cartoon mallet) with every justified ounce of strength and passion. If you’d like to reach out and offer good cheer, request in-show discussions, or suggest ideas for bonus episodes, please email us at Asktheboxofficepod@gmail.com (which I finally fixed so that it’ll forward to my personal business email, natch). * Scott Mendelson - The Outside Scoop [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/] and Puck News [https://puck.news/author/scott-mendelson/] * Jeremy Fuster - TheWrap [https://www.thewrap.com/author/jeremy-fuster/] * Lisa Laman [https://lisalaman.wixstudio.com/lisaportfolio] - Dallas Observer [https://www.dallasobserver.com/arts/dallas-forths-best-trans-inclusive-bars-and-businesses-21590543], Pajiba [https://www.pajiba.com/staff/lisa-laman.php], Looper [https://www.looper.com/author/lisalaman/], Comic Book [https://comicbook.com/author/lisa-laman/] and Autostraddle [https://www.autostraddle.com/author/lisalaman/] * Ryan C. Scott - SlashFilm [https://www.slashfilm.com/author/ryanscott/] and Fangoria [https://www.fangoria.com/authors/ryan-scott/] Get full access to The Outside Scoop at scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

A Fast (But Not Furious) Hour With... Barry Hertz

As we wait and see if and how Universal chooses to embark on a presumably final film in the $7.3 billion-grossing Fast & Furious saga, Barry Hertz’s recently released Welcome to the Family: The Explosive Story Behind Fast & Furious, The Blockbusters That Supercharged The World offers an impressively comprehensive and potentially definitive look at the 25-year underdog success story. The author stopped by to offer his thoughts, some of which are in the book and some of which are “new to you,” regarding the many unexpected and unpredictable ups and downs, triumphs and tragedies, lucky breaks and unprecedented missed opportunities that slowly turned “a little car movie for spring break” into the top-grossing real-world, non-fantastical action-adventure franchise in Hollywood history. Without rehashing the book’s highlights, I’ll note that Hertz, Chief Film Critic for Toronto’s The Globe and Mail, knows that many of the readers know many of the key events along the way. As such, he uses the history we know as the starting point for a dissection into the how, why and why not related to the movies and moments that made headline news in the entertainment ecosystem and beyond. For example, Hertz discusses the Vin Diesel/Dwayne Johnson feud in terms of Vin being a Sylvester Stallone-ish “serious artist who found success only as a beefcake action hero” and Dwayne being an Arnold Schwarzenegger-ish “anything to please the crowds” showman. Maybe it’s good that Sly and Arnie didn’t truly team up until 2013’s Escape Plan, by which point neither of them had the butts-in-seats stardom to justify inflated egos. And, without giving too much away, he drops at least two nuggets here that A) didn’t make the book and B) genuinely surprised me. Okay, so one of them — a most unusual but on-brand request/demand regarding failed attempts to lure Vin Diesel back for a straight-up Fast and the Furious 2 — might make you laugh out loud. Oh, and gasp when I foolishly reveal my initial thoughts 25 years ago upon seeing a trailer for that first Fast and the Furious. But beyond that, we discussed the unassuming nature of that first summer 2001 B-movie, which turned out to be, well, Fast and the Furious is to Speed as Driven is to Blown Away. We noted how Universal’s failure to lock a conventional sequel in place until years after the fact, with two kinda-sorta sequels arriving in the interim, played a crucial role in crafting a before-it-was-cool cinematic universe. We also noted the notion of many as “fan” — such as myself — coming late to the party, as I was among many who were otherwise indifferent to the first four films, only to be knocked out by the inexplicably spectacular Fast Five. Anyway, among many other pleasures to be found in the prose and the conversation, I was most compelled by the in-hindsight reevaluation of Furious 7’s success in terms of keeping a post-mortem Paul Walker alive enough onscreen to bow out with grace. At the time, James Wan’s 2015 installment was an aspirational, fist-pumping, look-what-Hollywood-can-do success, in terms of technology, filmmaking craft, commercial success, and overall pop culture impact. Today? Well, like a lot of franchises, brands and showbiz players that inspired and entertained in the 2010s, there’s a particular “Die a hero or live long enough to become a villain” sentiment. Cut to 2025 as Vin Diesel teases a “return” for Paul Walker’s protagonist that few fans actually want amid a still-in-limbo “final” chapter that will arguably only get made, presuming it does, because Fast X ended on a cliffhanger. For all that naval gazing and more (less stick-up-Scott’s-ass) conversation about what’s still among Hollywood’s definitive “rip-off, don’t remake” triumphs (Fast & the Furious in 2001 > Point Break in 2015), check out the conversation and then order the book, courtesy of Grand Central Publishing [https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/barry-hertz/welcome-to-the-family/9781538771037/?lens=grand-central-publishing]. Get full access to The Outside Scoop at scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Ep. 97 - (Disney's) Got a Million Problems, But 'Woke' Ain't One

Somehow (an invitation, natch), Aaron Neuwirth returned. In a lengthy but dense Thanksgiving weekend wrap-up episode, the subject is, of course, Walt Disney’s Zootopia 2. The acclaimed and buzzy WDA sequel has thus far earned (counting its $7.5 million “second Thursday” in China) $170 million in North America, $315 million in China and $635 million worldwide. Beyond obvious “What went right?” and “Does the bonkers-bananas Chinese opening mean anything beyond a deep decade-long Zootopia fandom?” Lisa Laman discusses the disturbing circumstances in which the holiday weekend has just eight wide releases in play, and (be it correlation or causation), tentpoles like Zootopia 2 and Wicked For Good are taking up more screens and more showtimes per theater than ever before. Scott Mendelson agrees, noting that A) the kind of films that used to qualify as counterprogramming now barely exist at the theatrical level and B) Warner Bros., Disney, and Universal are essentially the only studios that “matter” in macro terms for the theatrical ecosystem, thereby improving their bargaining positions. Jeremy Fuster eventually unloads with two years’ worth of justified indignation, lashing out at Bob Iger’s semi-regular strawman arguments equating Disney’s early 2020s struggles with the “not a white guy” stories being told — often created by “not a white guy” filmmakers, no less. Trust me, I’d cue up the Independence Day theme music for the occasion. Aaron Neuwirth declares war on previous guest Ryan Scott for his harsh words directed at Godzilla: King of the Monsters. So, there’s a for-charity-bonus-episode if/when the time comes. As Jeremy notes, the unexpected 60-day window being afforded to Hamnet, Aaron discusses the complicated circumstances of successfully platforming well-liked but not necessarily crowdpleasing award-season fare. That’s just a sample — including Scott’s realization that The Housemaid could turn out to be a remake of Mary Poppins Returns — of the treats in store for those brave enough to press play on this uncommonly uncaged and feral episode of The Box Office Podcast. No recommended reading as I got caught up elsewhere, but if you like what you hear, That said, if you like what you hear, please like, share, comment, and subscribe. If you’d like to reach out and offer good cheer, request in-show discussions, or suggest ideas for bonus episodes, please email us at Asktheboxofficepod@gmail.com. * Scott Mendelson - The Outside Scoop [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/] and Puck News [https://puck.news/author/scott-mendelson/] * Jeremy Fuster - TheWrap [https://www.thewrap.com/author/jeremy-fuster/] * Lisa Laman [https://lisalaman.wixstudio.com/lisaportfolio] - Dallas Observer [https://www.dallasobserver.com/arts/dallas-forths-best-trans-inclusive-bars-and-businesses-21590543], Pajiba [https://www.pajiba.com/staff/lisa-laman.php], Looper [https://www.looper.com/author/lisalaman/], Comic Book [https://comicbook.com/author/lisa-laman/] and Autostraddle [https://www.autostraddle.com/author/lisalaman/] * Ryan C. Scott - SlashFilm [https://www.slashfilm.com/author/ryanscott/] and Fangoria [https://www.fangoria.com/authors/ryan-scott/] * Aaron Neuwirth - The Code is Zeek [https://thecodeiszeek.substack.com/] Get full access to The Outside Scoop at scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Ep. 96 - Hour With... The Numbers' Bruce Nash

This is a kind of half-and-half in terms of The Box Office Podcast. It’s technically an hour-long conversation with Bruce Nash, owner of The Numbers [https://www.the-numbers.com/], as he prepares to release the site’s first-ever full-year market forecast [https://www.the-numbers.com/news/260380830-2026-Box-Office-Our-First-Complete-Market-Forecast\]. However, Jeremy Fuster and Lisa Laman were able to jump in amid this mid-week pre-Thanksgiving chit-chat, so it’s a bit of both worlds. In the 60-minute discourse, we discuss Nash’s site and why it’s better or different from all other sites of its nature. Among other things, unlike its chief competitor, it didn’t set itself on fire six years ago, in terms of data availability and usability, for no good cause. The core topic is what we all think may or may not happen in the 2026 theatrical calendar year. Everyone agrees that even the rosiest predictions, for the theatrical ecosystem as a whole, are predicated on Warner Bros. *not* being swallowed up and stripped for “Batman-or-bust” parts by whichever suitor wins this most egregious season of The Bachelor. Lisa wins the “quote of the episode” award, which I just made up right now, when she declares (paraphrasing) that we need “fewer mergers and more movies.” I’d put that bumper sticker on my car in a heartbeat. However, at least from the start, 2026 will get a boost from Avatar: Fire and Ash and a busy January slate that looks closer to 2023 than 2024. The bad news is that there aren’t many titles with even the potential to be a breakout overperformer on par with Barbie or Inside Out 2. However, Chris Nolan’s The Odyssey seems the most likely such candidate by default. The good news is that most 2026 releases may perform as well as hoped (or better) with the bonus of Michael and Mortal Kombat II juicing the overall revenue totals for the first half of the year. There’s plenty of that kind of punditry and analysis, some of it more serious (At what point do we accept that the consistent “This year will be back to normal!” drumbeat is a mirage?) than not (the key circumstance by which Mortal Kombat II could post Avatar-level grosses). Still, we do our best not to make Mr. Nash spend the duration thinking to himself, “Oh god, what have I done?” No recommended reading, but I completely forgot to link to the GoFundMe Lisa mentioned two weeks ago, specifically for the slew of journalists laid off from Vibe following a merger with Rolling Stone. For those able and willing… go *here [https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-vibe-staff-after-layoffs]*. As always, if you like what you hear, please like, share, comment, and subscribe. If you’d like to reach out and offer good cheer, request in-show discussions, or suggest ideas for bonus episodes, please email us at Asktheboxofficepod@gmail.com. The regular Box Office Podcast episode, discussing the Thanksgiving box office, should drop within the next 24 hours.. * Scott Mendelson - The Outside Scoop [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/] and Puck News [https://puck.news/author/scott-mendelson/] * Jeremy Fuster - TheWrap [https://www.thewrap.com/author/jeremy-fuster/] * Lisa Laman [https://lisalaman.wixstudio.com/lisaportfolio] - Dallas Observer [https://www.dallasobserver.com/arts/dallas-forths-best-trans-inclusive-bars-and-businesses-21590543], Pajiba [https://www.pajiba.com/staff/lisa-laman.php], Looper [https://www.looper.com/author/lisalaman/], Comic Book [https://comicbook.com/author/lisa-laman/] and Autostraddle [https://www.autostraddle.com/author/lisalaman/] * Ryan C. Scott - SlashFilm [https://www.slashfilm.com/author/ryanscott/] and Fangoria [https://www.fangoria.com/authors/ryan-scott/] Get full access to The Outside Scoop at scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Ep. 95 - Everyone Sees The Wicked

Before we see to what extent Zootopia 2 ($39 million on Wednesday and $81 million worldwide thus far, or $100 million if you’re counting its $34 million Wednesday and $20 million Thursday in China) reaches the Thanksgiving weekend heights of Moana 2, listen to this extensive, comprehensive and almost intentionally random dissection of Wicked For Good’s $147 million domeatic and $223 million worldwide debut. Chrissi Michael, content strategist by day and box office nerd by night [https://cmstudiescinema.substack.com/?utm_source=global-search], stops by in this 90-minute chat that features #importantjournalisms related to Muppet Clue, Repo: The Genetic Opera and, spoilers, whether “it’s” made of… corn. Fear not, there is also more… mature discourse about breakout sequels, what Broadway favorites should or should not get the big-budget movie treatment and the importance of adaptations that grow an existing fanbase. Also on tap were thoughts on what studios might be thinking when they split a long book or play into two movies, the logic of making films for/from/about women, and whether Zooptia 2 will give Wicked more of a hassle than Moana 2 did. Most importantly, discover what exactly Lisa was talking about when she declared, “For the first time in my life, I feel… Phantom of the Opera 2007 revival!” Apologies, but I’m running behind, so no “recommended reading” for this week. That said, if you like what you hear, please like, share, comment, and subscribe. If you’d like to reach out and offer good cheer, request in-show discussions, or suggest ideas for bonus episodes, please email us at Asktheboxofficepod@gmail.com. * Scott Mendelson - The Outside Scoop [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/] and Puck News [https://puck.news/author/scott-mendelson/] * Jeremy Fuster - TheWrap [https://www.thewrap.com/author/jeremy-fuster/] * Lisa Laman [https://lisalaman.wixstudio.com/lisaportfolio] - Dallas Observer [https://www.dallasobserver.com/arts/dallas-forths-best-trans-inclusive-bars-and-businesses-21590543], Pajiba [https://www.pajiba.com/staff/lisa-laman.php], Looper [https://www.looper.com/author/lisalaman/], Comic Book [https://comicbook.com/author/lisa-laman/] and Autostraddle [https://www.autostraddle.com/author/lisalaman/] * Ryan C. Scott - SlashFilm [https://www.slashfilm.com/author/ryanscott/] and Fangoria [https://www.fangoria.com/authors/ryan-scott/] * Chrissi Michael - c(ine)m(a) studies [https://cmstudiescinema.substack.com/] Get full access to The Outside Scoop at scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe [https://scottmendelson.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]