Boeing Q4 2025 Earnings Analysis
ALEX: Welcome to Beta Finch, your AI-powered earnings breakdown! I'm Alex, and joining me as always is Jordan. Today we're diving into Boeing's Q4 2025 earnings, which just dropped, and wow – there's a lot to unpack here.
JORDAN: There really is, Alex. But before we get into the nitty-gritty, I need to share our standard disclaimer: This podcast is AI-generated content for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing we discuss should be considered investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
ALEX: Absolutely. Now Jordan, let's start with the headline numbers because they're actually pretty impressive on the surface.
JORDAN: They really are! Boeing reported $23.9 billion in quarterly revenue – and get this – that's their highest quarterly total since 2018. Revenue was up a massive 57% year-over-year. For the full year, they hit $89.5 billion, up 34%.
ALEX: That's a significant turnaround. What's driving those numbers?
JORDAN: It's really a combination of higher commercial deliveries and better operational performance across the board. They delivered 600 commercial aircraft for the year – again, the most since 2018. The 737 MAX program delivered 447 planes, while the 787 contributed 88 deliveries.
ALEX: Now, the earnings picture gets a bit more complex, right? Because there's this big one-time gain in there.
JORDAN: Exactly. Core earnings per share came in at $9.92, but here's the thing – $11.83 of that was from selling their Digital Aviation Solutions business for about $10.6 billion. Strip that out, and you're looking at underlying operations that are still losing money, but improving significantly from the prior year.
ALEX: Let's talk about what CEO Kelly Ortberg had to say about their turnaround plan. He seems cautiously optimistic but realistic about the challenges ahead.
JORDAN: I thought his tone was really measured. He said "we haven't fully turned the corner, but we're making real progress." That feels honest – they're not overselling the recovery. He highlighted their four-point plan: stabilize the business, execute on development programs, change the culture, and build for the future.
ALEX: Speaking of those development programs, there's some movement on the certification front for their delayed aircraft, right?
JORDAN: Yes, but it's a mixed bag. The 737-10 got approval for its final phase of certification flight testing, which is progress. They still expect both the 737-7 and 737-10 to get certified in 2026. For the 777X, they're sticking with first delivery in 2027, though they did mention a potential engine durability issue they're working through with GE.
ALEX: Now let's get to what investors are probably most interested in – the cash flow situation. This has been Boeing's Achilles' heel for years.
JORDAN: This is where it gets really interesting. They generated positive free cash flow of $375 million in Q4 and used $1.9 billion for the full year – but that was actually better than expected. More importantly, CFO Jay Mollave guided to positive free cash flow of $1 billion to $3 billion for 2026.
ALEX: But there are a lot of moving parts affecting that cash flow, aren't there?
JORDAN: Oh absolutely. Mollave walked through what he called "legacy issues" that are weighing on cash flow. The biggest one is the 777X program, which won't start delivering until 2027, so they're spending cash to build planes but not getting the full payment from customers yet. He said that program alone will be a higher cash use in 2026 than 2025.
ALEX: And then there are these "customer considerations" – essentially compensation for past delivery delays.
JORDAN: Right, and "excess advances" where they've already taken customer cash for planes they haven't delivered yet. These are both legacies of the production problems and MAX grounding from years past. Mollave said when you adjust for all these temporary issues, the underlying b
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