Boom before the Reality Sinks In

Happy Birthday America and what ails Broken Britain

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 3rd, 2026 “Reorganising the civil service is like drawing a knife through a bowl of marbles.” Compare and contrast the USA and Britain. The new country and the old. Our problems are not in our inventiveness, our skills or our people, but in how our societies work. We suffer from Politics that don’t govern, Businesses that don’t share, and Bureaucracies that don’t deliver. These are problems of late-stage democracies in need of a reset. Politicians keep promising – maybe one day one of them will actually make changes! Happy Birthday America! Have a great party! Celebrate a quarter millennium of awesomeness! Across the pond in Europe we sincerely mean that. We have much to thank the USA for and much to be proud of. Britain’s finest sailed the ocean to the new world and forged a nation. It was a reaction to a far-away tyrant’s actions, founded on the basis all men are created equal and may only be ruled with the consent of the governed. The new state attracted Europe’s huddled masses giving it the strength and diversity to thrive. Today it is the most powerful nation on Earth – as its’ leader keeps reminding us. The USA has worked pretty well – thus far! You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

We need a revolution in Defence

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 2nd, 2026 – We need a revolution in Defence “Generals always prepare to fight the last war, especially if they won it.” The UK’s long-delayed Defence Investment Plan was a final humiliation for Sir Keir Starmer as he struggled to gloss over the gaping defence funding gap. But it’s not how much is spent, but what it is spent on that matters. The frenetic pace of Mil-Tec evolution in the wake of the Ukraine War highlights how the next war will likely be fought. It’s time for a complete overhaul on the defence establishment’s approach to rearmament. (PODCAST TO FOLLOW) I sometimes wonder if the Houses of Parliament has a window cleaner? What do our politicians and civil service mandarins see when they gaze out at the geopolitical weather? They know the roof is leaking, but to fix it will be expensive and the kitty is empty. Why not throw another tarpaulin over it, and hope it doesn’t rain? Such a hope is not a great strategy here in Britain where weather lore says: “how do you know when it’s going to rain? Because it’s not raining yet?” Yes. Rain is a metaphor for conflict. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Where have we been, where are we now, and what’s next?

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 1st, 2026 “It’s not the immediate damage, but the unforeseen second and third order consequences that really hurt.” 2026 has been an interesting year thus far. A number of themes including AI, Geopolitics, Debt and Innovation have driven the flow of markets, which have very high upside expectations and few worries about downside risks. I would remind readers of Blain Mantra No 1: “The markets have but one objective: to inflict the maximum amount of pain on the maximum number of participants”. Hey-Ho, and on we go... It’s the first of July, and we are at the half-way stage of 2026 – and hasn’t it been fascinating? I thought it might be interesting to skim through what we expected, what happened, and where we might be headed next. Its worth starting from the premise that markets are not enlightened, all-knowing crystal balls, but simply the sum of weighted stupidity – in other words, expectations are based on hopes, while reality is often the result of mistakes. That said, explaining the whole of the global economy and markets in 2 hours before breakfast and doing my day-job is a tough ask, but there are four very visible market themes that stand out in my mind – and of course, they are all inter-related, and they have all repeated themselves through history. This time it might be different - we live in a very connected world. As someone once said: “A toddler having a tantrum in Washington makes old men smile in Beijing.” You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Andy Burnham’s big vision – will it be more than smiles and eyebrows?

“He can even quote “The Life of Brian” without sounding like a dalek. How bad can it be?” Andy Burnham, the UK Premier in waiting, has laid out his vision and plan for the UK. It didn’t scare the horses and contains some interesting ideas. What it didn’t say is about some of the big issues and “courageous” spending decisions is worrying. But the idea of moving the centre of UK political gravity out of London is inspired. Who knows… it might even work! Andy Burnham talked well. He presented well. He smiled. He sounded like he believes in what he is saying. His eyebrows worked overtime as they screamed charisma and engagement. Yesterday was all about Burnham – the real-world Mr Deeds from Manchester who is going to roll up his sleeves, fix Broken Britain and save the Labour Party.  Maybe.  You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

The best choice for UK chancellor is probably Rachel Reeves!

“Decisions to secure our economic future are not easy – but they are critical.” Andy Burnham promises the UK a national reboot. Critical to his success will be his choice of chancellor, and the relationship with the financial markets. Rachel Reeves is closely associated with the failed Starmer premiership – but she knows how to do the job and has credibility with the markets. With new leadership she could prove a much better choice than other contenders.  Who will UK Prime Minister in Waiting Andy Burnham choose to be the next Chancellor the Exchequer? It’s the second most important job in the country – the role of national CFO is critical. It requires a competent politician with a grasp of finance, bonds, taxation, project management, and central banking, but it’s likely Burnham will offer the post to secure the support of political rivals with careers spent in politics rather than commerce. Will it go to Ed Miliband, the least popular minister in a very unpopular cabinet, or has it already been promised to Wes Streeting, former Health Minister, in return from him standing down his own premiership goal in return for the job? I have a suggestion for Burnham. How about Rachel Reeves? That would be a bold call. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!