Where have we been, where are we now, and what’s next?

Where have we been, where are we now, and what’s next?

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 1st, 2026 “It’s not the immediate damage, but the unforeseen second and third order consequences that really hurt.” 2026 has been an interesting year thus far. A number of themes including AI, Geopolitics, Debt and Innovation have driven the flow of markets, which have very high upside expectations and few worries about downside risks. I would remind readers of Blain Mantra No 1: “The markets have but one objective: to inflict the maximum amount of pain on the maximum number of participants”. Hey-Ho, and on we go... It’s the first of July, and we are at the half-way stage of 2026 – and hasn’t it been fascinating? I thought it might be interesting to skim through what we expected, what happened, and where we might be headed next. Its worth starting from the premise that markets are not enlightened, all-knowing crystal balls, but simply the sum of weighted stupidity – in other words, expectations are based on hopes, while reality is often the result of mistakes. That said, explaining the whole of the global economy and markets in 2 hours before breakfast and doing my day-job is a tough ask, but there are four very visible market themes that stand out in my mind – and of course, they are all inter-related, and they have all repeated themselves through history. This time it might be different - we live in a very connected world. As someone once said: “A toddler having a tantrum in Washington makes old men smile in Beijing.” You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Andy Burnham’s big vision – will it be more than smiles and eyebrows?

“He can even quote “The Life of Brian” without sounding like a dalek. How bad can it be?” Andy Burnham, the UK Premier in waiting, has laid out his vision and plan for the UK. It didn’t scare the horses and contains some interesting ideas. What it didn’t say is about some of the big issues and “courageous” spending decisions is worrying. But the idea of moving the centre of UK political gravity out of London is inspired. Who knows… it might even work! Andy Burnham talked well. He presented well. He smiled. He sounded like he believes in what he is saying. His eyebrows worked overtime as they screamed charisma and engagement. Yesterday was all about Burnham – the real-world Mr Deeds from Manchester who is going to roll up his sleeves, fix Broken Britain and save the Labour Party.  Maybe.  You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

The best choice for UK chancellor is probably Rachel Reeves!

“Decisions to secure our economic future are not easy – but they are critical.” Andy Burnham promises the UK a national reboot. Critical to his success will be his choice of chancellor, and the relationship with the financial markets. Rachel Reeves is closely associated with the failed Starmer premiership – but she knows how to do the job and has credibility with the markets. With new leadership she could prove a much better choice than other contenders.  Who will UK Prime Minister in Waiting Andy Burnham choose to be the next Chancellor the Exchequer? It’s the second most important job in the country – the role of national CFO is critical. It requires a competent politician with a grasp of finance, bonds, taxation, project management, and central banking, but it’s likely Burnham will offer the post to secure the support of political rivals with careers spent in politics rather than commerce. Will it go to Ed Miliband, the least popular minister in a very unpopular cabinet, or has it already been promised to Wes Streeting, former Health Minister, in return from him standing down his own premiership goal in return for the job? I have a suggestion for Burnham. How about Rachel Reeves? That would be a bold call. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

The Rule of Law, Trust and Democracy: building blocks of the Economy

Blain’s Morning Porridge June 25th, 2026 – The Rule of Law, Trust and Democracy: building blocks of the Economy “Democracy doesn’t collapse when a ruler lies, it collapses when people stop caring that he lies.” The success of Western Capitalist Economies is founded in the Rule of Law, Trust and competent Democratic leadership. Break confidence is these, and the economy becomes a free for all, with powerful bullies taking all they can while the weakest in society will wither. Is it a film script, or what’s happening now…? LINK TO PODCAST   This Morning’s Porridge is a little late because I went for a swim again this morning. Delicious it was! The heat dome over Europe has been extraordinary – but hopefully it will break tonight. The swim gave me some time to think after Scotland’s dismal 3-Nil drubbing by Brazil in the World Cup last night. So, today, something a little different for the Porridge… One of my guilty pleasures over the last few years has been The Boys - a Prime TV series. It’s curious mix of comedy, satire and visceral gore – lots of gore. It makes a Tarantino movie look like a BBC period-drama. Heads explode and bodies are ripped apart every couple of minutes in the most horrible yet surprising ways imaginable. It is sweary, it is improbable, and its utterly compulsive. It is very funny in an urgh sort of a way. The heroes are nearly as bad as the villains. There are lots of in-jokes and references which is great for nerds like me. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Tech, Space X and the Hype Bubble Economy

“The temperature’s rising, it isn’t surprising, it’s too damn hot.” Are we about to have an Emperor’s New Clothes moment and a return to sane AI valuations? The Tech markets create enormous real value and growth across economies, but like every other bubble in financial history they are hyped to high heaven. In the short run there is money to be made playing the game. In the long run; what is real and what is not matters. The trick is to exit the short-term game before the long run outcomes are apparent to everyone. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!