Capital Creek Partners - 3in10

Global Yield Shock

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott digs into first quarter 2026 earnings, which posted a headline growth rate of 28.4% year over year but were flattered by over $50 billion in AI-related investment gains from Google and Amazon, making the adjusted growth rate closer to high teens which is still very strong, but less euphoric than the headline suggests. He then unpacks the global yield shock sweeping G20 bond markets, driven by warflation from the Iran-US conflict pushing food and energy prices higher in tandem, with Japan leading the backup after its 30-year yield hit 4.2%, the highest in over three decades, while China stands alone with falling yields and a massive borrowing cost advantage. Lastly, Scott walks through Walmart's fiscal first quarter earnings and what they reveal about inflation and the US consumer, highlighting that average gasoline fills have dropped back to 2022 levels and that management warned directly: if the Iran war persists, expect higher inflation for the remainder of 2026.

Natural gas in the doldrums, inflation re-accelerates, and Cisco's 26-year comeback

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott explains why natural gas is one of only two commodities down in 2026 despite a roaring commodity bull market, pointing to surging shale production that continues to outpace export capacity while noting that the massive US-Europe price arbitrage and summer weather could change the picture fast. He then digs into this week's CPI and PPI releases, arguing that a re-acceleration in inflation is clearly underway in both core services and goods, a trend that was building before the Iran war and is now reflected in a global bond sell-off. Lastly, Scott salutes Cisco Systems for finally reclaiming its dot-com-era all-time high 26 years later, driven by record revenue, hyperscaler AI orders expected to grow four and a half times in 2026, and a renewed position at the center of the AI infrastructure boom.

Senior Loan Officer Survey, Goldilocks Jobs, and Apollo's Defensive Posture

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott delves into the April Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey, highlighting tighter standards on business and private credit lending that should weigh on growth later in 2026. He then assesses the April employment report, explaining why the 48,000 three-month average is the Goldilocks number to embrace amid an unusually broad-based set of industry gains. Lastly, Scott recounts Apollo's earnings, noting Marc Rowan's increasingly defensive posture even as markets hit new highs.

Inflation's Cyclical Upturn and Exxon's Turnaround

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down two key market themes for the week. Scott connects the dots across ECRI's future inflation gauge, March core PCE, and ISM prices paid, arguing a cyclical upturn in inflation was in place well before the Iran war and that the Fed has quietly moved to neutrality for 2026. He then walks through Exxon's first quarter earnings beat and management's commentary on oil, refining, and chemicals, crediting CEO Darren Woods with a multi-year turnaround in returns, free cash flow, and shareholder value.

Special Edition: Britt Harris, Former CIO of UTIMCO, The Seven Storms Facing Investors

In this special edition episode of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, sits down with Britt Harris, former CIO of UTIMCO and founder of Titans of Investing, to discuss the seven storms reshaping the investment landscape. Scott and Britt begin by framing why the post-2020 era breaks from the four-decade regime that preceded it. Britt then walks through the seven storms — debt, China, climate, AI, world order, millennials, and corporate concentration — highlighting how sovereign-scale companies and passive ownership are reshaping capitalism. Britt also discusses what the new regime means for allocators, noting that the reflationary environment will reward hard assets and independent thinkers. Lastly, Britt reflects on four decades in the industry, reiterating the importance of emotional stability and being prepared for the bear markets we know are coming.