Divergences

Syria’s Fragile Transition (w/ Malik al-Abdeh)

It has been more than a year since the Assad regime was overthrown and the Syrian Transitional Government has held together despite provincial demands for autonomy, enormous economic challenges, Israeli occupation and military strikes, and pressure from the wars in Iran and Lebanon. In some respects, Ahmad al-Shara‘a is making substantive efforts to create a more inclusive and representative political system. However, he and his team are also replicating many of the same structures of governance that existed under Assad rule, this time in ways that favor the Sunni community and early supporters of Hayat Tahrir al-Shams in particular. Those structures are a natural reflection of the way Syrian society is constructed, and the country is constantly under the threat of falling back into an oppressive dictatorship. The question is whether al-Shara‘a can find a sustainable formula for governance that provides more than token representation for all communities, even if real power resides with his core Sunni constituency. The Transitional Government has carefully navigated its regional relationships, carefully managing Turkish expectations, leaning heavily on support from Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf allies, and avoiding entanglements in Lebanon and Iraq. Damascus has gone to great lengths to make sure that regional and international partners have a direct line and frequent reassurances about Syria’s goodwill and positive intentions. The current Israeli offensive against Hizballah in Lebanon now offers an opportunity for al-Shara‘a to demonstrate his government’s willingness to help regional allies further isolate Iran and degrade the capabilities of its proxies. In this episode, CFTNI Senior Fellow Joshua Yaphe speaks with Malik al-Abdeh, Chief Editor of Syria in Transition, a monthly magazine providing in-depth research and analysis. He is also Managing Director of Conflict Mediation Solutions, a London-based consultancy focused on peace-building in the Middle East. Music by Ashot Danielyan [https://pixabay.com/users/ashot_danielyan-27049680/] from Pixabay [https://pixabay.com/music/].

Iraqi Elections (w/ Tamer al-Badawi)

Iraq will go to the polls on November 11 in an election likely to be dominated by the Iran-backed parties of the Shi‘a Coordination Framework. Although Moqtada al-Sadr is boycotting the election, he is likely weighing his options in both the short- and medium-term. That may mean quietly supporting independent candidates who could sway the government formation process while biding his time in case an opportunity arises to destabilize the caretaker government that will hold power until the leading Shi‘a parties resolve their differences. The United States still has a meaningful role to play, particularly with Prime Minister Muhammad al-Sudani playing up his ties to Washington as part of his campaign for a second term. Yet the recent spate of warnings from senior U.S. officials about the need to disarm the Popular Mobilization Forces have largely fallen on deaf ears, marking a significant shift away from the leading role that America once played in Iraqi politics. What are the likely outcomes of this election, and what do they mean for the United States? In this episode, Joshua Yaphe [https://cftni.org/expert/joshua-yaphe/] speaks with Tamer al-Badawi [https://tamerbadawi.org/about-me], an Associate Fellow at both the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and the Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient (CARPO). He also writes on Substack, where he publishes The Iraq Nexus [https://iraqnexus.substack.com/], a weekly analysis and news update. Music by Ashot Danielyan [https://pixabay.com/users/ashot_danielyan-27049680/] from Pixabay [https://pixabay.com/music/].

The Yemeni Conflict in a Global Context (w/ Khaldoon Bakahail)

The decade-long conflict in Yemen has settled into a fragile stalemate, with neither the internationally recognized government nor the Houthi movement able to secure a decisive victory. What role have Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran played in sustaining or shaping the war—and how are global powers like China, Russia, and the United States competing for influence in the region? Can Yemen’s fractured political landscape be rebuilt, and what might a post-conflict settlement or federal model look like? And with the humanitarian crisis deepening, is there any realistic path to stability after years of war and foreign intervention? In this episode, Joshua Yaphe [https://cftni.org/expert/joshua-yaphe/] speaks with Khaldoon Bakahail [https://mena2050.org/khaldoon-bakahail/], a Strategic Advisor with the Geneva Center for Security Sector Governance and a long-time expert on Yemeni political-military affairs. Music by Ashot Danielyan [https://pixabay.com/users/ashot_danielyan-27049680/] from Pixabay [https://pixabay.com/music/].

Iran After the 12-Day War (w/ Farid Mirbagheri)

Iran is militarily weakened and politically divided. It is unlikely to restore the pre–12 Day War status quo with Israel, particularly as its regional proxies struggle to recover. Many Iranians have lost confidence in their government and would welcome fundamental change. Yet even under a new regime, challenges for the West would remain. Any government in Tehran would likely pursue a nuclear energy program, and the Iranian public would remain wary of re-establishing ties with the United States. The greatest asset for improving perceptions and rebuilding relations may be the Iranian community in America—the largest Iranian diaspora in the world. In this episode, Joshua Yaphe [https://cftni.org/expert/joshua-yaphe/] speaks with Farid Mirbagheri [https://strategyinternational.org/about/experts/farid-mirbagheri/], a Senior Fellow at Strategy International and a non-resident fellow at the University of St. Andrews’ School of Peace and Conflict Studies. Farid was born and raised in Iran, and spent 25 years in Cyprus as a Professor of International Relations and Chair of the Center for World Dialogue at the University of Nicosia. Music by Ashot Danielyan [https://pixabay.com/users/ashot_danielyan-27049680/] from Pixabay [https://pixabay.com/music/].

Reporting on the Arab World Through China’s Lens (w/ Adel El Mahrouky)

Chinese journalism is expanding its footprint across the Middle East in ways that sharply diverge from Western outlets like CNN. Rather than sending foreign correspondents, China’s CGTN deploys local reporters to tell regional stories, building trust and sidestepping the backlash often directed at U.S. and European media. As CGTN positions itself as a friendlier, non-interventionist alternative to the West, the implications for regional politics, public opinion, and global soft power are profound. Is China’s model of “journalism without interference” winning hearts and minds in the Arab world? And how does it shape local narratives about America? In this episode, Joshua Yaphe speaks with Adel El Mahrouky, a freelance Middle East correspondent for CGTN. El Mahrouky has two decades of experience reporting from the region. Music by Ashot Danielyan [https://pixabay.com/users/ashot_danielyan-27049680/] from Pixabay [https://pixabay.com/music/].