Emad Mostaque Has A 50% P(Doom) & A Plan To Lower It

NEW: Watch the Eliezer Yudkowsky vs. Secret AI Lab Director Debate on my other channel!

📢 BREAKING: A man known only as "@47fucb4r8c69323" just paid Eliezer Yudkowsky $10,000 to have a raw, uncut, public debate on my YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIg4zQKBpAs] channel! Tensions run high as 47f confronts Eliezer about his "If anyone builds it, everyone dies" rhetoric, warning it could incite unstable individuals to harm AI researchers and their families, while Eliezer maintains that the possibility of extinction from superintelligent AI is too high to *not* speak out about.They also clash over whether we truly understand how LLMs work. Yudkowsky highlights the lack of extracted algorithms that explain their qualitative intelligence, while 47f dismisses these concerns as a fundamental misunderstanding of how text modeling works. While this may not be the highest quality debate I’ve ever hosted, I hope it’s a step toward more attention and public discourse on this urgent, high-stakes topic. P.S. Please consider supporting my work with a tax-deductible donation. Read more… [https://doomdebates.com/donate] Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Who Paid $10,000 to Debate Yudkowsky? Plus AI Twitter & Investing Tips - Doom Debates Live (5/1/26)

Livestream with Producer Ori covering Eliezer Yudkowsky's next BIG debate, why $GOOG is such a steal at $4T, and what's going down on AI twitter. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Kicking off the Livestream 00:06:08 — Eliezer Yudkowsky Debate Announcement 00:13:17 — Who’s Yudkowsky’s Debate Challenger? 00:25:32 — METR’s Capability Extrapolation Came True 00:28:25 — Google: The Big Rally I Called 00:33:06 — The Federal Reserve’s Extinction Chart 00:36:06 — Liron’s Private Market Alpha Strategy 00:40:35 — The Quadrillion-Dollar Economy 00:47:54 — Bernie Sanders Gets It 00:53:11 — Is Anthropic a Good Investment? 01:07:42 — The Goblin Discourse 01:10:52 — Codex, Claude Code & Live Coding Demo 01:28:48 — Wrap-Up Links Yudkowsky debate announcement: https://x.com/liron/status/2050035001203229010 [https://x.com/liron/status/2050035001203229010] Liron's Yudkowsky interview: https://x.com/liron/status/2050035003900223770 [https://x.com/liron/status/2050035003900223770] METR capability extrapolation: https://x.com/nikolaj2030/status/2050276020146880661 [https://x.com/nikolaj2030/status/2050276020146880661] Bernie Sanders on AI risk: https://x.com/SenSanders/status/2048107882760085618 [https://x.com/SenSanders/status/2048107882760085618] Federal Reserve extinction chart: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2025/0624 [https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2025/0624] Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Justin Helps (⁨@Primer on YouTube) is Worried about AI Takeover

Justin Helps is the science educator behind ⁨Primer Learning with 2M subscribers. We cover how he got into AI safety, debate AGI timelines, and why he calculates p(doom) to be 70% by 2100 😱. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:38 — Introducing Justin Helps 00:02:03 — What's Your P(Doom)?™ 00:03:38 — Justin's First Exposure to AI X-Risk 00:04:49 — Major Disagreements with Eliezer Yudkowsky 00:09:46 — Debating the Timeline to AGI 00:12:24 — Metaculus Prediction Market Estimates AGI by 2032 00:20:06 — Misguided Conceptions of AI's Limitations 00:25:23 — Only a 5% P(Doom) by 2040 00:28:40 — AIs Will Not Care About the Human Species 00:31:00 — Summarizing Justin's Position So Far 00:36:17 — High P(Doom), but We're Not Depressed 00:40:14 — Justin's "Computer Man" Thought Experiment 00:51:16 — Should We Pause AGI Development? 00:54:15 — AI Doom Is a Serious Concern Links Primer’s Video on AI Doom — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qg5QXY_qZuI [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qg5QXY_qZuI] Primer on YouTube — https://youtube.com/@PrimerBlobs [https://youtube.com/@PrimerBlobs] Primer’s Website — https://primerlearning.org/ [https://primerlearning.org/] Justin Helps on X — https://x.com/Helpsypoo [https://x.com/Helpsypoo] Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality — https://hpmor.com/ [https://hpmor.com/] Feeling Rational by Eliezer Yudkowsky —https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SqF8cHjJv43mvJJzx/feeling-rational [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SqF8cHjJv43mvJJzx/feeling-rational] Pause AI — https://pauseai.info [https://pauseai.info] Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Live Q&A: Bernie Sanders Wakes Up to AI Doom, Dwarkesh's $20,000 Questions, Caller Debates the Alignment Problem!

Multiple live callers join this month's Q&A as I react to Dwarkesh Patel's $20K blog prize, debate the orthogonality thesis from first principles, and welcome Bernie Sanders aboard the Doom Train. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:01:00 — Welcome to Doom Debates Live! 00:01:30 — What Do You Think of Open Source Models Out-Benchmarking OpenAI and Anthropic? 00:04:55 — Michael Cheers Joins: What If We Don't Give AIs Full Situational Awareness? 00:11:55 — Thoughts on Mythos' Hacking Abilities? 00:15:43 — Liron Reacts to Dwarkesh Patel's $20K AI Questions 00:23:28 — Pretraining Goals vs RL Training Goals 00:28:58 — Mental Model of Yudkowsky-ians & the IABIED Claim 00:37:24 — You Can't Hide Reality from a Superintelligence (The Truman Show Analogy) 00:42:57 — Back to Dwarkesh's Questions: When Do AI Labs Start Making Money? 00:48:50 — Upcoming Guests Reveal! 00:51:35 — Will Lancer Joins: Is The Yudkowskian Thesis Credible? 01:27:03 — Back to Answering Questions from the Chat 01:33:28 — The Cameraman Always Survives Analogy 01:40:52 — Liron's Banger Response to Roon's Tweet 01:47:00 — Nuance About Pausing AI Development 01:50:57 — Capitalism Isn't Going to Steer Us to an Alignment Solution 01:53:10 — Is Optimization Equivalent to Intelligence? 01:57:21 — BREAKING: Bernie Sanders on the Existential Threat of AI 02:01:12 — Spoiler for the Upcoming Mike Israetel Episode 02:01:57 — $500 Bet on AI Unemployment 02:05:46 — Misuse, Surveillance, and the Real Costs of Pausing AI 02:11:04 — Wrap-Up Links Nick Bostrom, Deep Utopia: Life and Meaning in a Solved World (Amazon) — https://www.amazon.com/Deep-Utopia-Meaning-Solved-World/dp/1646871642 [https://www.amazon.com/Deep-Utopia-Meaning-Solved-World/dp/1646871642] Yudkowsky & Soares, If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies (book) — https://www.amazon.com/If-Anyone-Builds-Everyone-Dies/dp/0316571253 [https://www.amazon.com/If-Anyone-Builds-Everyone-Dies/dp/0316571253] Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Emad Mostaque Has A 50% P(Doom) & A Plan To Lower It

Emad Mostaque helped kick off the modern AI revolution as the head of Stability AI, the company behind Stable Diffusion. Unlike most AI CEOs, he doesn't sugarcoat the risks of AGI development. He explains his 50% P(Doom), why we have less than 1,000 days to get our act together, and how his new startup, Intelligent Internet, aims to be a countervailing force against doom of all kinds. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:39 — Introducing Emad Mostaque 00:02:08 — How Emad Got Involved in AI Development 00:05:46 — The 60-Second Pitch for Intelligent Internet 00:09:29 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™ 00:13:32 — Why ASI Doesn’t Need Massive Compute 00:15:56 — AGI Timelines: Cognitive Labor Going to Zero 00:17:29 — Is There a Ceiling Above Human Intelligence? 00:41:22 — Corporations as Slow, Dumb AIs 00:50:19 — Emad’s Mainline Doom Scenario 00:55:28 — Jailbreaks and “Mecha-Hitler” Latent Spaces 00:59:56 — The Last Economy: How to Navigate Economic Doom 01:08:57 — The Coming Unemployment Spike 01:15:13 — Why Isn’t Google Stock Mooning? 01:25:05 — Intelligent Internet as a Solution: Bitcoin for the Intelligence Age 01:33:13 — Can an Aligned Network Stop a Rogue ASI? 01:36:20 — Is the Pause AI Proposal Too Late? 01:40:50 — Are We Facing Russian Roulette Odds with AI? 01:42:29 — Wrap-Up Links Emad Mostaque, The Last Economy (Amazon) — https://www.amazon.com/Last-Economy-Guide-Intelligent-Economics/dp/103693411X [https://www.amazon.com/Last-Economy-Guide-Intelligent-Economics/dp/103693411X] Intelligent Internet (ii.inc) —https://ii.inc [https://ii.inc] Emad Mostaque, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emad_Mostaque [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emad_Mostaque] Emad Mostaque on X — https://x.com/EMostaque [https://x.com/EMostaque]Pause Giant AI Experiments open letter (Future of Life Institute) — https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/ [https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/] Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]