Driving Thoughts - EP 5 - OpenDoor Loses Over $600 Million!
Good morning, everybody. Today is Friday, March 4th. And today I want to talk about I Buyers. Most of you know that I've been in real estate investing for five years now, been doing this, started off wholesaling, still doing a little bit of that, but mostly fixed and flips buying whole short-term rental and stuff like that.
I know people who have been selling to I buyers, a lot of wholesalers who've been selling to I buyers for quite a while now. And the reports coming back, they're buying anywhere from 90 to 105% of the ARV. ARV stands for after repair value. That means what the house would sell for retail after everything's repaired.
So if these companies are paying 90 to 105%, which means they're paying 5% over retail price to get into homes, they're competing with actual end home buyers. Last year alone they bought over 70,000 homes, over 70,000 homes. They were competing against mostly in buyers. So with that being said, they doubled from 2019, but Zillow has backed out.
We all know that Zillow lost a ton of money and decided to back out. And they said their algorithm was wrong, which I find hilarious. Most of us find that funny because everyone banked on their Zestimate. But Monday, the report came out of OpenDoors earnings, and they lost even more money, almost three quarters of a billion, let that sink in, billion, three quarters of a billion dollars, over $600 million.
That's what OpenDoor lost in 2021, which makes me wonder, where is all this money coming from? Obviously they're valued at over a billion dollars. They've had a ton of VC money pumped into it, and they're supposed to be the Silicon valley of superstars. I mean, they've got staff from. Amazon. They've got staff from Lyft. They've got staff from Google. They've got staff from Netflix. Everybody and their mom from Silicon valley is a part of this open door project. And you've got people that are saying, Hey, you can 20 X your return with open door. They just lost 23% of their value overnight from their earnings report.
How are these businesses staying in business? I have no idea other than the fact that there's just too much money involved for them to lose at this point. So. I wonder, am I playing too small? Should I go raise a bunch of money? Because I understand how to buy real estate. The money is made on the buy. I don't care what you believe when it comes to appreciation.
Appreciation is speculation to me. You can't always bank on appreciation. So if you're buying high appreciation markets, be careful. That's all I'm going to say. If you buy right, it doesn't really matter. I'm buying at, you know, 60, 70, and 80 cents on the dollar. I mean, I do pay full retail for things sometimes, but that's when I get it on my terms and it can still cashflow, but you know, again, it makes me wonder, am I playing too small?