Dynasty Compass

Don't Let These Rookies Fall with Derek Brown

Can you believe drafters are sleeping on these guys? Knowing which rookies have a realistic path to playing time can turn a late-round pick or a waiver claim into real dynasty equity. Yet, many managers are letting these guys fall down the draft board. After this episode, you'll know exactly which 2026 rookies to grab before your leaguemates figure it out. Derek Brown, senior analyst at FantasyPros, joins Jeff Blaylock to dive deep into the 2026 rookie class and surface the late-round rookie picks dynasty managers should be drafting while their league mates draft less impactful players. From Chase Roberts and Bryce Lance to Oscar Delp, Eli Raridon, and Matthew Hibner, this is the episode for managers hunting first-round talent with fourth and fifth-round picks. 💡 Key Takeaways * Path to playing time is the key to deciding which late-round rookie is worth drafting. * DBro's favorite WR sleepers include Chase Roberts, CJ Daniels, Eric Rivers and Kevin Coleman Jr., who he calls "South Beach Jayden Reed." * Bryce Lance is available in the third and fourth round of rookie drafts despite ranking sixth in yards per route run among all FBS and FCS receivers last year — DBro sees a Christian Watson 2.0 with a clear path to starting in New Orleans. * High-end athleticism at tight end is a prerequisite for dynasty value, not just a bonus. DBro won't draft a TE who runs a 4.8 40 or slower. * Oscar Delp and Eli Raridon, DBro's two most undervalued players in this class, are falling to the third and fourth round of rookie drafts when both could be long-term starting tight ends. * DBro is most excited about tight ends in the fifth round and beyond of rookie drafts. He's targeting Seydou Traore, Matthew Hibner and Jaren Kanak. * Seth McGowan, one of DBro's favorite late-round RBs, is worth drafting as a potential RB2 in Indy, and Eli Heidenreich is a late-round RB who might end up as a starting slot receiver. * DBro is fading Demond Claiborne and Adam Randall despite the buzz, citing contact avoidance and poor tackle-breaking metrics that don't match the hype. * Cole Payton is DBro's sleeper quarterback pick for Superflex leagues, while Haynes King is the waiver wire name to stash. ⏱️ Chapters/Timestamps 00:00 – Introduction 08:12 – Finding first-round talent with late-round picks 14:31 – WRs: Chase Roberts & Bryce Lance 23:17 – Kevin Coleman Jr. and the Miami Dolphins' WR mess 28:04 – "TikTok footwork," contested catch rate, and what actually translates 36:04 – CJ Daniels & Eric Rivers 42:34 – TEs: Athleticism as a filter 48:17 – Oscar Delp & Eli Raridon 55:13 – Matt Hibner & Jaren Kanak 01:02:54 – RBs: Seth McGowan & Eli Heidenreich 01:10:44 – QBs: Cole Payton & Haynes King in Superflex 01:15:57 – DBro's round-by-round final picks 🔗 Links Mentioned * FantasyPros [https://www.fantasypros.com]  * FP's YouTube Dynasty Channel [https://www.youtube.com/@FantasyProsDynasty]  * Follow Derek Brown on Twitter/X [https://x.com/DBro_FFB]  * Jeff's Dynasty Rankings [https://www.footballguys.com/rankings/ranker/jeff-blaylock/duration/dynasty?year=2026&userId=978336] at Footballguys * Footballguys [https://www.footballguys.com/]  * Follow Jeff on Twitter/X [https://x.com/jeffblaylock] * Dynasty Compass website [https://www.dynastycompass.com]  👍 Support the Show If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow. Visit dynastycompass.com [https://www.dynastycompass.com] to learn more about the show.

The Art & Science of Dynasty Rankings with Jake Ciely

Jake Ciely of The Athletic has been doing fantasy football rankings for 15 years, and one of his most honest admissions is that he kind of hates them. Not because they aren't useful, but because a ranked list can't convey everything a manager actually needs to know. Understanding what rankings can and can't tell you changes how you use them. In this episode, Jeff and Jake walk through how dynasty rankings get built, why the current season deserves more weight than most dynasty managers give it, and what question you should be asking yourself every time you open a rankings page. 💡 Key Takeaways * Rankings are a vacuum snapshot — they tell you what a ranker prefers if all else is equal, not what you should do for your specific team. * Tiers communicate more than order; a player ranked 21 and a player ranked 28 in the same tier are essentially interchangeable, and a good ranker wants you to know that. * Dynasty rankings take roughly twice as long to produce as redraft rankings because every player evaluation involves a multi-year time horizon. * Jake weights the current season heavier than most dynasty rankers, arguing that too many managers are optimizing for 2029 instead of actually trying to win. * Age is primarily a tiebreaker in the top tier, but becomes a more significant factor around ages 27–28. * Contract situations are the underrated companion to age in dynasty valuation. * Consulting redraft rankings alongside dynasty rankings can help break close calls, especially when you want to know which of two players has a clearer path to contributing this season. * The hardest players to rank well are often not the stars but the mid-tier options whose range of outcomes is widest and upside matters more than floor. * Jake's closing advice: stop being a lazy manager. Look at other teams' needs, make offers, start conversations. Don't just wait for trades to come to you. ⏱️ Chapters 00:00 – Introduction 04:58 – The Question Rankings Try to Answer 14:08 – Tiers and What Gets Lost 21:13 – Weighting This Year vs. Future Years 27:32 – How Age and Contracts Factor into Rankings 37:38 – How Jake Uses, and Avoids, Outside Rankers 42:36 – When Are Your Rankings Done? 52:56 – Should Dynasty Managers Use Redraft Rankings? 01:04:17 – Stop Being Lazy & #BanKickers 🔗 Links Mentioned * Jake Ciely at The Athletic [https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/author/jake-ciely/]  * Jake's Post-Draft Dynasty Rankings [https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7212010/2026/04/27/2026-dynasty-fantasy-football-rankings-rookie-only/]  * Follow Jake on Twitter/X [https://x.com/allinkid]  * All In Speed Run podcast [https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/all-in-speed-run/id1434703276] on Apple Podcasts  * FantasyPros [https://www.fantasypros.com]  * Jeff's Dynasty Rankings [https://www.footballguys.com/rankings/ranker/jeff-blaylock/duration/dynasty?year=2026&userId=978336]  * Follow Jeff on Twitter/X [https://x.com/jeffblaylock] * Footballguys [https://www.footballguys.com] 👍 Support the Show If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow. Visit dynastycompass.com [https://www.dynastycompass.com] to learn more about the show.

Injury Myths Are Costing You Dynasty Value with Adam Hutchison

Dynasty managers misvalue injured players — and most of the time, it's because the conventional wisdom is wrong. Footballguys injury expert Adam Hutchison has tracked more than 2,000 injuries across nine seasons, and the data pushes back on some of the most common assumptions: about ACL recovery, about age and athleticism, about which injuries actually linger and which ones don't. Knowing where the myths break down lets you buy low when others are running scared — and avoid the traps that look like value but aren't. Adam also shares which injured dynasty assets he's buying and selling right now, and closes with a three-question checklist every manager should run before making any move on an injured player. 💡 Key Takeaways * Dynasty managers assume age and athleticism predict ACL recovery. The data says otherwise. Past performance is far more predictive than a player's age or athleticism. * The "injury prone" label is real but haphazardly applied. Adam's Recovery Score metric shows that some players consistently beat their timelines while others (including some big names) consistently miss more time than expected. * The number of days between surgery and returning to the lineup has a meaningful, positive relationship with post-injury fantasy output. Dynasty managers should be wary of players returning too quickly after surgery. * Re-injury risk is higher than most managers realize for certain injury types — MCL sprains for RBs, hamstrings for TEs and WRs — and that risk isn't priced into most dynasty markets. * Not all injuries linger the same way. Lower leg injuries suppress RB production the longest. Core and hip injuries are the most damaging for WRs' performance. Treating all injuries as equal leads to mispriced trades. * Some injuries are almost never worth buying at any price. Achilles tears, knee dislocations, and patellar tendon ruptures are the three Adam won't touch regardless of discount. * Before any injured-player move, run Adam's three-question checklist: know your window, know the injury, know the risk. ⏱️ Chapters / Timestamps 00:00 – Injuries: An Unfortunate Reality in Football 04:03 – Adam's PT Background Shapes His Injury Analysis 11:43 – Is the 'Injury Prone' Trope Real? 15:12 – Christian McCaffrey, Injury Patterns & Practice Philosophy 21:38 – ACL and Achilles: Is the ‘Recovery Year’ Trope Real? 27:53 – Other Injury Myths the Data Doesn’t Support 31:19 – Re-injury Rates by Position 40:46 – Lingering Effects of Injuries on Production 47:01 – When Should Missing Practice Actually Concern You? 53:10 – Expectations for Alec Pierce, Jonathan Brooks & Tank Dell 59:37 – Adam's Checklist for Buying an Injured Player 🔗 Links Mentioned * Footballguys [https://www.footballguys.com]  * Adam's Articles [https://www.footballguys.com/articles?page=1&userId=966712] on Footballguys  * Follow Adam on Twitter/X [https://x.com/TheRealAdam_H]  * Follow Jeff on Twitter/X [https://x.com/jeffblaylock]  * Coachspeak Index [https://www.thecoachspeakindex.com/] (Greg Brainos)  * Keep Trade Cut [https://keeptradecut.com/] (dynasty valuation site)  👍 Support the Show If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow. Visit dynastycompass.com [https://www.dynastycompass.com] to learn more about the show.

Best, Worst & 'Huh?' Rookie Landing Spots with Andrew Cooper

The 2026 NFL Draft is over. Now the real dynasty work begins. Andrew Cooper of Fantasy Alarm joins Jeff to separate the winners from the losers, highlight the dream landing spots and the fantasy nightmares, and decode the biggest reaches and strangest picks. From Jeremiyah Love's arrival to a crowded RB room to the Jets' bumper crop of slot weapons to the best snipe in NFL draft history, Coop has the intel and strategy you need to win your rookie drafts. 💡 Key Takeaways * Coop’s “Block Line” evaluates the draft class based on when the first pure blocking tight end is taken. The 2026 class had the earliest Block Line in recent memory. * Don't overthink Jeremiyah Love (ARI) because of the Cardinals' backfield situation. He's the 1.01, regardless of format. * Kenyon Sadiq's landing spot (NYJ) was great ... for an hour. Then the Jets drafted Omar Cooper Jr. The slot has gotten crowded. * Eli Stowers (PHI): the Eagles told him he’s the next in their lineage of star second-round tight ends. * Depressed RBs: The NIL era has created a bottleneck at running back, and draft capital suffered for it. * Coop’s favorite non-first-round dynasty picks: Eli Raridon (NE), Elijah Sarratt (BAL), Malachi Fields (NYG) and Adam Randall (BAL). * De'Zhaun Stribling (SF) and Kaelon Black (SF) headline the reaches, and force Coop and Jeff to rethink their rankings. * Coop rates KC Concepcion as the last rookie he’s truly comfortable taking in round one of dynasty rookie drafts — after five or six the value gets very sketchy very fast. * Despite a weak class, there's value to mine in later rookie draft rounds. ⏱️ Chapters / Timestamps 00:00 – The Draft Is Over 03:39 – The “Block Line”: Coop’s draft quality litmus test 08:42 – Tight end landing spots: Sadiq & the Jets disaster, Stowers & Raridon 19:01 – Tight end nightmares: Roush, Klare & the Rams’ 5-TE 24:15 – Wide receiver landing spots: Williams, Bernard & the best/worst spots 36:35 – Running backs: the NIL bottleneck and why the class is thin 42:10 – Jeremiyah Love: just take him 1.01, full stop 49:09 – Jeanty, Washington & the Raiders’ split-backfield reality 55:28 – Quarterback landing spots: Mendoza, Simpson & the rushing QB flyers 1:06:25 – Reaches, head-scratchers & the panic picks 1:15:32 – Value picks & sleepers: Raridon, Branch, Brazzell & late-round darts 1:20:53 – Dynasty rookie draft strategy: round-by-round recommendations 🔗 Links Mentioned * Fantasy Alarm [https://www.fantasyalarm.com] * Follow Andrew Cooper on Twitter/X [https://x.com/CoopAFiasco]  * SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio [https://www.siriusxm.com/channels/siriusxm-fantasy-sports-radio] * Jeff’s Dynasty Rankings [https://www.footballguys.com/rankings/ranker/jeff-blaylock/duration/dynasty?year=2026&userId=978336] * Follow Jeff on Twitter/X [https://x.com/jeffblaylock] * Footballguys [https://www.footballguys.com] * Footballguys Rookie Guide [https://www.footballguys.com/rookieguide] 👍 Support the Show If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow. Visit dynastycompass.com [https://www.dynastycompass.com] to learn more about the show.

On the Clock? When to Trade That Rookie Draft Pick with Pete Nova

Your rookie pick is never more valuable than when it's on the clock, and the trade window is open. Should you make the pick, trade down, or trade out? Jeff Blaylock sits down with Pete Nova of PlayerProfiler to break down the strategy behind trading picks during your live rookie draft. Knowing when to sell, when to hold, and what to ask for can be the difference between winning and spinning your wheels. Whether you're sitting at the 1.01 or staring at a late third you're not excited about, there's a strategy for every spot on the board. 💡 Key Takeaways * A pick's value peaks when it's on the clock — certainty is the asset being traded, and knowing your league matters before you try to use it. * Rebuilders with the 1.01 should always be listening to offers, not just taking the pick. Drafting a player without offering trades or considering trading down for multiple assets is malpractice. * Moving from an early first area requires a proven player in return, not just picks. A.J. Brown is the kind of asset that justifies dropping a few slots. * Moving up in the second round means targeting running backs. Wide receiver hit rates are too low to justify burning assets for a late-second receiver. * Third-round picks are prime candidates to trade for veterans if you're contending, like a Rachaad White or J.K. Dobbins, or opportunities to invest in intriguing tight end prospects. * Future non-first picks are throw-ins. Future distant firsts should be valued like seconds because the uncertainty is real. * The person holding the pick on the clock has the leverage, but if you're sitting on a pick you don't want, smart opponents will smell it. ⏱️ Chapters / Timestamps 00:00 – Intro 05:06 – When Is a Draft Pick's Value at Its Peak? 09:26 – The 1.01: Buying and Selling the Top Pick 14:04 – The 1.03 Tier: What It Takes to Move Down 16:34 – Second-Round Strategies 21:49 – Third-Round Picks: Veterans, Tight Ends, and Futures 28:06 – Your Guy Is on the Board: Draft Now or Negotiate? 35:15 – Who Has the Leverage On the Clock? 39:52 – Deciding to Trade Down vs. Move Out Completely 44:10 – Buying the 2027 Hype? 47:16 – How to Value Future Picks in an Active Trade 🔗 Links Mentioned * PlayerProfiler Dynasty YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@PlayerProfilerDynasty] * Follow Pete Nova on Twitter/X [https://x.com/SuperrNova38] * Jeff's Dynasty Rankings [https://www.footballguys.com/rankings/ranker/jeff-blaylock/duration/dynasty?year=2026&userId=978336] * Follow Jeff on Twitter/X  [https://x.com/jeffblaylock] 👍 Support the Show If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow. Visit dynastycompass.com [https://www.dynastycompass.com] to learn more about the show.