How Prediction Markets Turn Bets Into Real-Time Forecasts

We Celebrate Our 50th Episode with a Midyear Market Check-up. And You Finally See Our Faces!

SpaceX goes public and suddenly every portfolio conversation gets louder. At this midyear point, Andy and the crew at Keeler and Nadler wanted to slow it down a bit and look at what really matters; how IPOs actually get priced, why the opening trade can bake in years of optimism, and what history says about buying the hype versus simply sticking with the S&P 500. Andy, Abby Rose and Mark Beaver also zoom out to the bigger midyear picture. Inflation is proving sticky again, driven largely by energy prices and complicated by the lagging way housing data shows up in the numbers. With a new Federal Reserve chair in place, the obvious question is whether interest rates move next or whether the Fed stays on hold. We talk through what “peak inflation” could mean if energy cools and why policy decisions are rarely as simple as a headline makes them sound. From there, we connect the dots to what’s been powering markets: the AI trade, fast earnings growth, and the way market leadership is spreading beyond the Mag 7. Improving market breadth is a reminder that diversification still works, especially when concentration is high and the next decade’s winners may not be today’s favorites. If you care about long-term investing, retirement planning, and making decisions you can defend when volatility returns, you’ll get practical guardrails here. Plus, from here on out, you get to see our faces if you want!   We've launched a video pod to go along with our audio only option so subscribe, share this with a friend, and leave a review with the question you want us to tackle next. The opinions expressed in this program are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations. It is only intended to provide education about finance, tax, retirement and related planning topics. To determine which investments or strategies may be appropriate for you, consult your financial, tax or legal advisor prior to implementing. Any past performance discussed during this program is no guarantee of future results. Any indices referenced for comparison are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital; please seek advice from a licensed professional. Keeler & Nadler Family Wealth is a registered investment adviser. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Keeler & Nadler Family Wealth and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered by Keeler & Nadler Family Wealth unless a client service agreement is in place.

Retiring Soon? How to Create Sustainable Retirement Income You Won't Outlast

Your retirement countdown hits zero!   Yessssssss!  Very exciting indeed.  But suddenly, the real question shows up: what replaces your paycheck, month after month, for decades to come?   Host, Andy Keeler, walks through a practical way to answer it with Keeler and Nadler's Jake Martin.  They do it without hand-waving or generic calculators, instead using a tried-and-true three-legged stool framework: investments, Social Security, and pensions or annuities. First, a breakdown of the investments leg: what the 4% rule actually tries to solve, why taxes can quietly shrink your spending power, and why the first few years of retirement carry outsized risk.  Then, Andy and Jake tackle Social Security planning head-on. We address the “it won’t be there” fear, explain what funding pressure means versus benefits disappearing, and talk about why timing is a major decision with spouse and tax implications. Finally, we cover pensions and annuities as sources of guaranteed income, including the real emotional value of predictable checks plus cautions around inflation, fees, and lost flexibility. If you’re building a retirement income plan, this conversation helps you think in systems, not just account balances. Subscribe for more practical retirement planning guidance, share this with someone near retirement, and leave a review with your biggest retirement income question. The opinions expressed in this program are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations. It is only intended to provide education about finance, tax, retirement and related planning topics. To determine which investments or strategies may be appropriate for you, consult your financial, tax or legal advisor prior to implementing. Any past performance discussed during this program is no guarantee of future results. Any indices referenced for comparison are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital; please seek advice from a licensed professional. Keeler & Nadler Family Wealth is a registered investment adviser. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Keeler & Nadler Family Wealth and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered by Keeler & Nadler Family Wealth unless a client service agreement is in place.

If AI Skips Taxes In Creating Your Financial Plan, What Else Will It Miss?

A free AI financial plan can feel like a shortcut, but shortcuts in retirement planning usually come with a bill later. We decided to test a popular AI financial planning tool the way a real household might use it, then compare what it produced against what we’d expect from an experienced advisor and CFP-level planning process. Mike Klubnik joins Andy to walk through what the tool asked, what it never asked, and why those omissions matter.  Matter, greatly in fact! We build a case study around a married couple (65 and 62) retiring within a year, with $1.75 million invested and spending that rises in retirement due to travel and hobbies. From there, we dig into the planning details that separate a generic projection from an actionable retirement income strategy.   We also explain why “what you own” matters as much as “how you’re allocated,” including diversification risk, capital gains distributions in taxable accounts, and the way asset location can quietly raise taxes. Then we look at the AI output and what it missed.  It missed a lot and put simply — that can derail real families.   The AI tool had no meaningful Social Security strategy, no long-term care planning assumptions, thin coverage of insurance and estate planning details, and recommendations that were misfits for retirees.   AI can be a helpful starting point, but it cannot replace the right questions, tax-aware strategy, and implementation support that turns a plan into real life. Subscribe for more retirement planning and tax planning conversations, share this with someone considering an AI retirement plan, and leave a review with the biggest question you still have about using AI in personal finance. The opinions expressed in this program are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations. It is only intended to provide education about finance, tax, retirement and related planning topics. To determine which investments or strategies may be appropriate for you, consult your financial, tax or legal advisor prior to implementing. Any past performance discussed during this program is no guarantee of future results. Any indices referenced for comparison are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital; please seek advice from a licensed professional. Keeler & Nadler Family Wealth is a registered investment adviser. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Keeler & Nadler Family Wealth and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered by Keeler & Nadler Family Wealth unless a client service agreement is in place.

How Prediction Markets Turn Bets Into Real-Time Forecasts

A contract trading at 70 cents can tell you something simple and powerful: the crowd believes there’s about a 70% chance an event will happen, and that number moves as the world changes. That’s the core idea behind prediction markets, and it’s why they’ve become one of the most fascinating meeting points of behavioral finance, economics, and real-time forecasting. Andy is joined by Mark Beaver, partner at Keeler and Nadler Family Wealth and head of our investment committee, to unpack how “event contracts” work, why their prices behave like living probability estimates, and why money on the line can sharpen judgment. We connect the dots to the wisdom of crowds with concrete examples, from the jelly bean jar effect to game show audience lifelines, and then trace the modern rise of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi along with earlier research such as the Iowa Electronic Markets. We also dig into the practical uses beyond politics. Internal prediction markets at companies like Google and HP show how collective information inside an organization can outperform traditional forecasting models, while sometimes stripping away corporate politics. Then we face the hard questions: regulation vs innovation, the risk of insider trading, and whether market manipulation can distort public perception even briefly. If you like investing, decision-making, or simply understanding how forecasts get made, this conversation will give you a clearer framework for thinking about probability in the real world. Subscribe, share the show with a friend who loves predicting the future, and leave a review with your take: are prediction markets a helpful tool or a slippery slope? The opinions expressed in this program are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations. It is only intended to provide education about finance, tax, retirement and related planning topics. To determine which investments or strategies may be appropriate for you, consult your financial, tax or legal advisor prior to implementing. Any past performance discussed during this program is no guarantee of future results. Any indices referenced for comparison are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital; please seek advice from a licensed professional. Keeler & Nadler Family Wealth is a registered investment adviser. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Keeler & Nadler Family Wealth and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered by Keeler & Nadler Family Wealth unless a client service agreement is in place.

Women Advisors Rising And Keeler And Nadler Leads The Way

National awards are fun to celebrate, but the real question is what they’re actually measuring. We’re joined by Jessica Hultberg, CFP, and Abby Rose, CFP, CPA, two of our standout advisors who were named to the “200 Women Advisors to Watch” list. Andy starts the conversation with a simple observation from an all-Ohio Financial Planning Association symposium: the room looks different than it did years ago. Jessica shares what it was like attending early FPA meetings when there were far fewer women in wealth management, and how that shift in representation changes who feels welcome.  Abby adds context on why the profession is still male-dominated, why progress can feel slow, and why it matters that more women are discovering what financial planning really is. Then we get personal in the best way: kids. From “You work at a computer all day” to “My mommy takes care of people’s money,” we unpack how children absorb our relationship with numbers, work, and responsibility. It’s a reminder that money conversations at home can build confidence early and normalize financial literacy for the next generation. If you care about women in finance, finding a financial advisor you trust, or building a career in financial planning with real mentorship and culture, this one will land. Subscribe, share it with a friend, and leave a review with your biggest takeaway. **Keeler & Nadler Family Wealth (“KNFW”) did not pay to participate in the Advisors to Watch: Women Advisors award; however, KNFW has the option to purchase promotional materials. For more information on this award, please visit: https://www.advisorhub.com/women-advisors-to-watch-2026/ [https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.advisorhub.com_women-2Dadvisors-2Dto-2Dwatch-2D2026_&d=DwMGaQ&c=euGZstcaTDllvimEN8b7jXrwqOf-v5A_CdpgnVfiiMM&r=5z4J4fwPUCXyHpzWaCJziiK8nAoQuPe2Ojb4STJbP9U&m=vfSWaZXPGLg8-hohDQnJ9Pi2XKUqwFxh6cAzCmzj74CnKPcyvZXT28BRJlzVMe_z&s=NGCIO7jbk_VujflovxG1BR6EMSv9u3RCe7lddxaYtqs&e=] The opinions expressed in this program are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations. It is only intended to provide education about finance, tax, retirement and related planning topics. To determine which investments or strategies may be appropriate for you, consult your financial, tax or legal advisor prior to implementing. Any past performance discussed during this program is no guarantee of future results. Any indices referenced for comparison are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital; please seek advice from a licensed professional. Keeler & Nadler Family Wealth is a registered investment adviser. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Keeler & Nadler Family Wealth and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered by Keeler & Nadler Family Wealth unless a client service agreement is in place.