Go/No-Go

Iran war bitumen shortage stalls roads, Ford's $30K electric truck, Tesla Semi ships, BYD's private fleet, Amazon logistics, and the real cost of quality.

The war with Iran keeps reshaping manufacturing in unexpected places. A bitumen shortage tied to the oil disruption is stalling road construction from India to Italy, and ships stuck in the Gulf are accumulating barnacles and jellyfish that foul their hulls and raise fuel costs. We trace that thread through a packed automotive segment: Ford's secret skunk works racing to build a $30,000 electric truck, the Tesla Semi finally shipping at $290,000 with 300 miles of charge in 30 minutes, and BYD's fleet of eight company-owned car carriers that ferry 300,000 vehicles a year through waters other ships avoid. Amazon is opening its logistics network as a third-party service, and the Trump Mobile phone shipped nine months late looking a lot like an HTC handset from Taiwan. Then we sit down with Alex's new Cost of Quality report, built on a survey of 210 quality decision makers, on what quality actually costs and why most manufacturers can't measure it. Links from the discussion: Ticking Time Bomb (John Keller's Takata documentary):__ https://www.tickingtimebombfilm.com/__ [https://www.tickingtimebombfilm.com/__] Alarm spreads among road-builders as Iran war bitumen shortage bites:__ https://www.ft.com/content/5933b845-96cc-4f11-add2-e1af789946c4__ [https://www.ft.com/content/5933b845-96cc-4f11-add2-e1af789946c4__] The secret team blowing up Ford's assembly line to make a $30,000 electric truck:__ https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/ford-ev-electric-truck-7fdb0e0a__ [https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/ford-ev-electric-truck-7fdb0e0a__] Tesla's Semi truck could jolt the trucking industry:__ https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/business/energy-environment/teslas-semi-truck.html__ [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/business/energy-environment/teslas-semi-truck.html__] How BYD gets an edge from ships that brave war, outrun storms:__ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-19/china-s-byd-builds-up-shipping-fleet-to-export-cars-amid-war-weather-threats__ [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-19/china-s-byd-builds-up-shipping-fleet-to-export-cars-amid-war-weather-threats__] Amazon built a massive supply chain for itself, now it's for hire:__ https://www.wsj.com/logistics-report/amazon-built-a-massive-supply-chain-for-itself-now-its-for-hire-c7d128b0__ [https://www.wsj.com/logistics-report/amazon-built-a-massive-supply-chain-for-itself-now-its-for-hire-c7d128b0__] Barnacles and jellyfish infest ships trapped in the Gulf:__ https://www.ft.com/content/e2344964-03bc-40e1-a8ce-5d62ad9a4e63__ [https://www.ft.com/content/e2344964-03bc-40e1-a8ce-5d62ad9a4e63__] Trump Mobile finally ships, experts say it looks like an HTC phone made in Taiwan:__ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8d8EojYVtCs__ [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8d8EojYVtCs__] Cost of Quality Report (Lumafield):__ https://www.lumafield.com__ [https://www.lumafield.com__] Scan of the Month: BYD car parts:__ https://www.scanofthemonth.com__ [https://www.scanofthemonth.com__] Go/No-Go Episode 12: Takata airbag Reconstruction:__ https://www.lumafield.com/podcast__ [https://www.lumafield.com/podcast__]

Paradromics CEO Matt Angle on building the highest data rate brain-computer interface, hermetic sealing vs. Neuralink, and what makes BCIs last a decade in the body.

Matt Angle is the CEO of Paradromics, a neurotechnology company building high data rate implantable brain-computer interfaces for people who have lost the ability to speak and move. The company's Connexus system, currently entering clinical trials, clocks an information transfer rate of over 200 bits per second (more than 20x the reported performance of comparable systems) and is designed to last more than a decade in the body. The conversation covers the basic physics of what separates an implanted electrode array from a surface EEG, the design of the Connexus itself, and the engineering choices that distinguish Paradromics from Neuralink: hermetic sealing, modular battery placement, and a deliberate bet on durability over planned obsolescence. We also get into what it takes to manufacture a device at the micro scale, where CT scanning fits into quality control once you've welded a titanium case shut, and the formative go/no-go moment when the team bet their company on a DARPA contract against consortium bids from Berkeley, Harvard, Stanford, and UCSF. Links from the discussion: Paradromics: https://www.paradromics.com [https://www.paradromics.com] Connexus BCI for people unable to communicate: https://www.paradromics.com/product [https://www.paradromics.com/product] SONIC benchmarking standard: https://www.paradromics.com/blog/bci-benchmarking [https://www.paradromics.com/blog/bci-benchmarking] SONIC preprint (bioRxiv): https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.09.30.679683v1 [https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.09.30.679683v1] Tempo BCI for mental health brain-state monitoring: https://www.paradromics.com/tempo [https://www.paradromics.com/tempo]

Allbirds collapses, SpaceX IPO targets $1 trillion, Iran buys a Chinese spy satellite, Sony Honda AFEELA canceled, Slate raises $650M, lab-grown chocolate.

Allbirds sold its name and assets for $39 million after a $4 billion IPO in 2021, and the shell listing is now being used to raise $50 million for a GPU-as-a-Service company called NewBird AI. We use it as a window into the D2C brand era and what it takes to build a consumer brand that lasts. SpaceX filed confidentially for a June IPO targeting $50 to $75 billion at a self-assessed valuation over $1 trillion, with Starlink generating $11.4 billion of that revenue in 2025. Iran acquired a Chinese spy satellite with half-meter resolution for $36.6 million through an in-orbit delivery model designed to sidestep export restrictions. A Citrini Research analyst rode a speedboat through the Strait of Hormuz to find out whether the blockade is real. On the automotive side: the Sony Honda AFEELA is canceled before release, Honda expects a $15 billion loss and its first unprofitable year since 1957, Slate raised $650 million for a bare-bones $25,000 EV pickup, and Stellantis is recalling 700,000 vehicles over a fire risk. We also cover lab-grown chocolate and why cocoa went from $3,000 to $12,000 a ton. Links from the discussion: Allbirds pivots to AI hyperscale as NewBird AI: https://www.theverge.com/news/912484/allbirds-ai-hyperscale [https://www.theverge.com/news/912484/allbirds-ai-hyperscale] SpaceX files to go public, setting stage for huge IPO: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/spacex-ipo-elon-musk.html [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/spacex-ipo-elon-musk.html] Iran used Chinese spy satellite to target US bases: https://www.ft.com/content/1fddd2cd-1294-4e9c-a17d-5ea06b399355 [https://www.ft.com/content/1fddd2cd-1294-4e9c-a17d-5ea06b399355] Citrini Research: Strait of Hormuz field trip: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/strait-of-hormuz-a-citrini-field [https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/strait-of-hormuz-a-citrini-field] Sony Honda Mobility cancels AFEELA 1 before release: https://www.shm-afeela.com/en/news/2026-03-25/ [https://www.shm-afeela.com/en/news/2026-03-25/] Slate Auto raises $650 million Series C: https://www.wardsauto.com/news/slate-auto-says-650m-boost-will-get-it-to-next-stages-of-production/817388/ [https://www.wardsauto.com/news/slate-auto-says-650m-boost-will-get-it-to-next-stages-of-production/817388/] A new kind of hybrid car is about to hit America's streets (EREV explainer): https://apple.news/AMS9PudLNTgedX0f8eo1MkQ [https://apple.news/AMS9PudLNTgedX0f8eo1MkQ] Stellantis to recall up to 700,000 cars worldwide over fire risk: https://www.reuters.com/business/stellantis-recall-up-700000-cars-worldwide-over-fire-risk-2026-04-01/ [https://www.reuters.com/business/stellantis-recall-up-700000-cars-worldwide-over-fire-risk-2026-04-01/] Israeli startup makes world's first lab-grown chocolate bar: https://www.ft.com/content/ea3610be-2a9d-45ac-b4c9-5e18225fed6b [https://www.ft.com/content/ea3610be-2a9d-45ac-b4c9-5e18225fed6b] CT scan: cacao pod: https://voyager.lumafield.com/project/3af46887-0dea-447a-8629-a0d16cb4073a [https://voyager.lumafield.com/project/3af46887-0dea-447a-8629-a0d16cb4073a]

The Takata airbag recall: how a propellant chemistry decision in the 1990s became the largest and costliest automotive recall in history, and why it still isn't over

We open with a Takata airbag sitting on the desk in front of us: a unit manufactured at the Monclova, Mexico plant at the center of the recall disaster, purchased on eBay and arrived by UPS ground. We couldn't determine whether it's one of the recalled units. The Takata airbag recall is the largest and costliest in automotive history, spanning just about every major automaker and now approaching 30 US deaths. We reconstruct the engineering story: how ammonium nitrate became the propellant of choice over cheaper and less stable alternatives, how its crystalline structure degrades through heat cycles and humidity over time, and how that degradation turns a supplementary restraint system into shrapnel. We also CT scanned the airbag, and we walk through what the scan reveals about how these assemblies are constructed. The organizational story runs alongside the engineering one: falsified test data, a 50-year Honda-Takata supplier relationship that led to complacency instead of accountability, a regulatory revolving door, and a whistleblower who spent years trying to prove that recalled airbags were being shipped as non-hazardous freight. The recall completion rate is now at 98%, a remarkable figure. The remaining 2% represents over a million vehicles still on the road, and the units that haven't been replaced are the oldest and most degraded. Links from the discussion: NHTSA Takata Recall Spotlight: https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle-safety/takata-recall-spotlight [https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle-safety/takata-recall-spotlight] Check for Recalls using your vehicle identification number (VIN): https://www.nhtsa.gov/recalls [https://www.nhtsa.gov/recalls] Ticking Time Bomb: The Truth Behind Takata Airbag (documentary): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFL0pnV4hx8 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFL0pnV4hx8] NHTSA Takata recall history and key terms (fact sheet): https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/documents/120916-fact_sheet-takata_recall_history_and_key_terms-tagged.pdf [https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/documents/120916-fact_sheet-takata_recall_history_and_key_terms-tagged.pdf] Lumafield CT scan of the Takata airbag: https://voyager.lumafield.com/project/5af653fa-13c1-4287-b3df-db4efebd992b [https://voyager.lumafield.com/project/5af653fa-13c1-4287-b3df-db4efebd992b]

Nick Terzulli of Fellow on inventing Espresso Series One, why home espresso has stagnated for decades, and the physics of heating water on 120V.

Nick Terzulli is Vice President of Research and Development at Fellow, the San Francisco coffee equipment company whose products can be found everywhere from Target shelves to your favorite third-wave coffee shop. Before Fellow, Nick worked on military robotics and designed medical devices at Stryker and Dextera, before spending several years scrubbing toilets at a coffee shop for $10 an hour just to learn how to make coffee using the best equipment available. The central problem Terzulli came to Fellow to solve has constrained home espresso since the beginning: 120V household power limits thermal and pressure stability in ways that commercial machines, running on much higher amperage, simply don't face. The best home machines either take 40 minutes to heat up or sacrifice performance to achieve fast heat-up times. Terzulli's answer, which became Fellow’s Espresso Series One, uses three separate heating elements staged in sequence to achieve commercial-level stability with a two-minute heat-up time, a novel approach he holds the sole utility patent on. The conversation covers how that architecture came together, what it takes to design for both the beginner and the specialist, how Fellow uses firmware and over-the-air updates to build community around its machines, and why designing coffee burrs from scratch was, in his view, the hardest technical challenge of his career. Links from the discussion: Fellow: https://www.fellow.com [https://www.fellow.com] Espresso Series One: https://fellowproducts.com/products/espresso-series-1 [https://fellowproducts.com/products/espresso-series-1] Ode Brew Grinder: https://fellowproducts.com/products/ode-brew-grinder-gen-2 [https://fellowproducts.com/products/ode-brew-grinder-gen-2] Fellow Drops (coffee subscription): https://fellowproducts.com/pages/fellow-drops [https://fellowproducts.com/pages/fellow-drops] Aiden Pourover Coffee Maker: https://fellowproducts.com/products/aiden-precision-coffee-maker [https://fellowproducts.com/products/aiden-precision-coffee-maker] Coffee Bean Roast Level CT Analysis: https://www.lumafield.com/first-article/posts/the-industrial-ct-guide-to-coffee-roast-levels [https://www.lumafield.com/first-article/posts/the-industrial-ct-guide-to-coffee-roast-levels] Coffee Scan of the Month: https://www.lumafield.com/scan-of-the-month/coffee [https://www.lumafield.com/scan-of-the-month/coffee]