HPMoR and the Limits of Rationality

Ep. 4: The EA Stands For Ethical Arbitrage

In chapters 4 and 5, Harry becomes fabulously wealthy and meets Draco Malfoy. Anthea, Elisa, and Jake are joined by Ernie to discuss effective altruism, the fundamental attribution error, and being built different. Citations and further reading: * Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality, chapter 4: https://hpmor.com/chapter/4 * HPMoR, chapter 5: https://hpmor.com/chapter/5 * "Eliezer's Unteachable Methods of Sanity," Eliezer Yudkowsky. LessWrong, 6 Dec 2025. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/isSBwfgRY6zD6mycc/eliezer-s-unteachable-methods-of-sanity * "ELI5: What is arbitrage and how do arbitrageurs make money?" r/explainlikeimfive, 27 Nov 2012. https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/comments/13wekw/comment/c77s5go/ * "Effective Altruism." Lesswrong, 2 May 2024. https://www.lesswrong.com/w/effective-altruism * "Purchase Fuzzies and Utilons Separately," EY. LessWrong, 1 Apr 2009. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3p3CYauiX8oLjmwRF/purchase-fuzzies-and-utilons-separately * "Can one person make a difference? What the evidence says." Benjamin Todd. 80,000 Hours, accessed 22 Apr 2026. https://web.archive.org/web/20260219151243/https://80000hours.org/career-guide/can-one-person-make-a-difference/ * "Sam Bankman-Fried on Arbitrage and Altruism (Ep. 145)," Conversations With Tyler. 9 Mar 2022. https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/sam-bankman-fried/ * "An excellent collection of Fermi problems for your class," Kevin Cummins. Innovative Teaching Ideas, 14 Aug 2023. https://innovativeteachingideas.com/blog/an-excellent-collection-of-fermi-problems-for-your-class/ * "Fundamental Attribution Error." Wikipedia, accessed 22 Apr 2026. https://web.archive.org/web/20260401065702/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_attribution_error * "Fundamental Attribution Error in Psychology," Saul McLeod. SimplyPsychology.com, accessed 22 Apr 2026. https://www.simplypsychology.org/fundamental-attribution.html * "The attribution of attitudes," Jones and Harris. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, January 1967. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0022103167900340?via%3Dihub * "The "Fundamental Attribution Error" is rational in an uncertain world," Walker, Smith, and Vul. Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, 2015. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/48d9b5qb#main * "Don't Revere The Bearer Of Good Info," CarlShulman. LessWrong, 21 Mar 2009. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tSgcorrgBnrCH8nL3/don-t-revere-the-bearer-of-good-info

Ep. 3: Stand By Me

In chapter 3, Harry learns about Death Eaters, and the hosts rescue jokes from a burning podcast. CONTENT WARNING: discussion of real life violence and sexual violence from 40:15-51:46. Continuing discussion of graphic fictional violence from 51:46 onward. Citations and further reading: * Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality, chapter 3: https://hpmor.com/chapter/3 * “The Cassandra Claire Plagiarism Debacle – Part XII,” Avocado/white_serpent. Fandom Wank, 6 August 2006. https://web.archive.org/web/20130702155034/http://www.journalfen.net/community/bad_penny/10481.html [https://web.archive.org/web/20130702155034/http://www.journalfen.net/community/bad_penny/10481.html] * STRANGE ÆONS. https://www.youtube.com/@STRANGEONS/search?query=harry%20potter [https://www.youtube.com/@STRANGEONS/search?query=harry%20potter]  * .”Kitty Genovese.” History.com [http://history.com], 27 February 2025. https://www.history.com/articles/kitty-genovese [https://www.history.com/articles/kitty-genovese] * “37 Who Saw Murder Didn't Call the Police; Apathy at Stabbing of Queens Woman Shocks Inspector,” Martin Gansberg. The New York Times, 27 March 1964. https://www.nytimes.com/1964/03/27/archives/37-who-saw-murder-didnt-call-the-police-apathy-at-stabbing-of.html [https://www.nytimes.com/1964/03/27/archives/37-who-saw-murder-didnt-call-the-police-apathy-at-stabbing-of.html] * “Winston Moseley, Who Killed Kitty Genovese, Dies in Prison at 81,” Robert D. McFadden. The New York Times, 4 April 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20180909012517/https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/05/nyregion/winston-moseley-81-killer-of-kitty-genovese-dies-in-prison.html [https://web.archive.org/web/20180909012517/https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/05/nyregion/winston-moseley-81-killer-of-kitty-genovese-dies-in-prison.html] * “A Call for Help,” Nicholas Lemann. The New Yorker, 2 March 2014. https://web.archive.org/web/20250607020600/https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/03/10/a-call-for-help?currentPage=all [https://web.archive.org/web/20250607020600/https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/03/10/a-call-for-help?currentPage=all] * Influence, Robert B. Cialdini. HarperCollins, 2007. https://dn710600.ca.archive.org/0/items/ThePsychologyOfPersuasion/The%20Psychology%20of%20Persuasion.pdf * “Feeling Rational,” Eliezer Yudkowsky. LessWrong, 25 April 2007. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SqF8cHjJv43mvJJzx/feeling-rational [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SqF8cHjJv43mvJJzx/feeling-rational] * “Twelve Virtues of Rationality,” Eliezer Yudkowsky. LessWrong, 1 January 2006. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7ZqGiPHTpiDMwqMN2/twelve-virtues-of-rationality [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7ZqGiPHTpiDMwqMN2/twelve-virtues-of-rationality]

Ep. 2: Wingardium Leviscrewyou

In chapter 2, a woman turns into a cat. Anthea and Regina discuss the pros and cons of reasoning from first principles, the collision of the profound and the mundane, and a cool Bavarian. Citations and further reading * Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality, chapter 2: https://hpmor.com/chapter/2 [https://hpmor.com/chapter/2] * HPMoR and Science: https://hpmor.com/science/ [https://hpmor.com/science/] * “Rationality Quotes 1,” Eliezer Yudkowsky. LessWrong. 15 January 2008. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LiDk2XMBFmRiju4x3/rationality-quotes-1 [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LiDk2XMBFmRiju4x3/rationality-quotes-1] * “Interstitial Comments on Dawkins,” Mencius Moldbug. Unqualified Reservations.11 October 2007. https://www.unqualified-reservations.org/2007/10/interstitial-comments-on-dawkins/ [https://www.unqualified-reservations.org/2007/10/interstitial-comments-on-dawkins/] * “The Anti-Reactionary FAQ,” Scott Alexander. Slate Star Codex. 20 October 2013. https://web.archive.org/web/20131126130345/http://slatestarcodex.com/2013/10/20/the-anti-reactionary-faq [https://web.archive.org/web/20131126130345/http://slatestarcodex.com/2013/10/20/the-anti-reactionary-faq]  * “Geeks for Monarchy: The Rise of the Neoreactionaries,” Klint Finley. TechCrunch, 22 November 2013. https://web.archive.org/web/20131124080402/https://techcrunch.com/2013/11/22/geeks-for-monarchy/ [https://web.archive.org/web/20131124080402/https://techcrunch.com/2013/11/22/geeks-for-monarchy/] * “Mr. Jones Is Rather Concerned,” Mencius Moldbut. Unqualified Reservation. 28 November 2013. https://www.unqualified-reservations.org/2013/11/mr-jones-is-rather-concerned/ [https://www.unqualified-reservations.org/2013/11/mr-jones-is-rather-concerned/]  * “Symmetry for Dummies: Noether’s Theorem,” Will Sweatman. Hackaday.com [http://hackaday.com]. 14 June 2016. https://hackaday.com/2016/06/14/symmetry-for-dummies-noethers-theorem/ [https://hackaday.com/2016/06/14/symmetry-for-dummies-noethers-theorem/] * “E. Noether's Discovery of the Deep Connection Between Symmetries and Conservation Laws,” Nina Byers. 23 September 1998. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.physics/9807044 [https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.physics/9807044] * “ELI5 What are Hamiltonian and Langrarian Mechanics? What do they concern?” answer by u/CreatureOfPrometheus. 4 May 2019. https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/comments/bkka3z/comment/emhm30p/ [https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/comments/bkka3z/comment/emhm30p/] * “Unitarity,” Wikipedia. Accessed 29 March 2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unitarity [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unitarity] * “My Childhood Death Spiral,” Eliezer Yudkowsky. LessWrong. 14 September 2008. https://www.lesswrong.com/s/SXurf2mWFw8LX2mkG/p/uD9TDHPwQ5hx4CgaX [https://www.lesswrong.com/s/SXurf2mWFw8LX2mkG/p/uD9TDHPwQ5hx4CgaX] * “How Peter Thiel’s Relationship With Eliezer Yudkowsky Launched the AI Revolution,” Keach Hagey. Wired. 20 May 2025. https://web.archive.org/web/20260204143917/https://www.wired.com/story/book-excerpt-the-optimist-open-ai-sam-altman/ [https://web.archive.org/web/20260204143917/https://www.wired.com/story/book-excerpt-the-optimist-open-ai-sam-altman/]  * “The Pleasure of Finding Things Out,” from The Pleasure of Finding Things Out, Richard Feynman. Original interview 1981, collected in 1999.

Ep. 1: A Podcast of Very Low Probability

Anthea introduces Jake and Elisa to the world of Rationality, Eliezer Yudkowsky, and HPMoR. A surprising level of empathy for Petunia Evans emerges. Citations and further reading * Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality, chapter 1: https://hpmor.com/chapter/1 [https://hpmor.com/chapter/1] * Neoreaction a Basilisk, Elizabeth Sandifer: https://bookshop.org/p/books/neoreaction-a-basilisk-essays-on-and-around-the-alt-right/850f22fb82ae27c6 [https://bookshop.org/p/books/neoreaction-a-basilisk-essays-on-and-around-the-alt-right/850f22fb82ae27c6] * The Zizians series, Behind the Bastards. 12-21 March 2025. * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mJAerUL-7w [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mJAerUL-7w] * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IqARk6Fru4 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IqARk6Fru4] * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWy5YGWHaNA [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWy5YGWHaNA] * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OogotniaUXI [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OogotniaUXI] * Curtis Yarvin, Behind the Bastards. 17-19 September 2024. * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYrPNvVhKLU [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYrPNvVhKLU] * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpEg4LS3CT0 * Peter Thiel and Yudkowsky’s history is discussed in “No Death, No Taxes,” George Packer. The New Yorker, 20 November 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20140801231953/https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/11/28/no-death-no-taxes [https://web.archive.org/web/20140801231953/https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/11/28/no-death-no-taxes] * Curtis Yarvin, Neoreaction, Yudkowsky, and Roko’s Basilisk are discussed in “The Strange and Terrifying Ideas of Neoreactionaries,” Nathan J. Robinson and Elizabeth Sandifer. Current Affairs, 30 May 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20251111012737/https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/2022/05/the-strange-and-terrifying-ideas-of-neoreactionaries [https://web.archive.org/web/20251111012737/https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/2022/05/the-strange-and-terrifying-ideas-of-neoreactionaries]  * “Why is Mencius Moldbug so popular on LessWrong?” https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6qPextf9KyWLFJ53j/why-is-mencius-moldbug-so-popular-on-less-wrong-answer-he-s [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6qPextf9KyWLFJ53j/why-is-mencius-moldbug-so-popular-on-less-wrong-answer-he-s] * Feynman Lectures on Physics Volumes 1,2,3. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4tHb1egFTm4Rlc3OEFrVmNGQUk/view?resourcekey=0-O8AOzf-ZN7FBDUoHR1WJrQ [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4tHb1egFTm4Rlc3OEFrVmNGQUk/view?resourcekey=0-O8AOzf-ZN7FBDUoHR1WJrQ]  * Discussion of the cultic milieu: https://web.archive.org/web/20250424005912/https://www.vectorsconference.com/culticmilieu_eng [https://web.archive.org/web/20250424005912/https://www.vectorsconference.com/culticmilieu_eng] * “The Harry Potter Fan Fiction Author Who Wants to Make Everyone a Little More Rational,” David Whelan. Vice, 2 March 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20201108113155/https://www.vice.com/en/article/gq84xy/theres-something-weird-happening-in-the-world-of-harry-potter-168 [https://web.archive.org/web/20201108113155/https://www.vice.com/en/article/gq84xy/theres-something-weird-happening-in-the-world-of-harry-potter-168] * “'Harry Potter' and the Key to Immortality,” Daniel D. Snyder. The Atlantic, 18 July 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110725060304/http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2011/07/harry-potter-and-the-key-to-immortality/241972/ [https://web.archive.org/web/20110725060304/http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2011/07/harry-potter-and-the-key-to-immortality/241972/]