Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

The Recession has Begun, and Costco Proves It | Redefining Diversification feat. Paisley Nardini

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Paisley Nardini, Managing Director and Head of Multi-Asset Solutions at Simplify Asset Management. Recorded May 12th, 2026 Paisley shares her perspective on why the traditional 60/40 portfolio faces significant challenges in a modern regime defined by sticky inflation and positively correlated stock-bond movements. We dig into why diversification requires more than just two asset classes, the tactical role of "liquid alternatives" like trend following to manage volatility, how hard assets can act as a natural hedge against inflationary pressures, and why Paisley believes "volatility is the price of entry" for long-term investors who want to participate in the market successfully. If you enjoyed this podcast, please give Paisley's a shot! You can catch her and her co-host Josh Flade talking about improving investor resilience at: https://buildingbetterportfolios.my.canva.site/ 📈 Topics Covered • The breakdown of stock-bond diversification in a high-inflation regime • Why the Fed is now "between a rock and a hard place" regarding interest rate policy • Why the "Fed Put" is no longer a reliable safety net for investors • Liquid alternatives and systematic trend following as essential negative correlation hedges • Hard assets (commodities/real assets) as an underrepresented inflation protection • Understanding the "everything else" category: Liquid alts, global macro, and tail-risk strategies • The educational gap in alternative investments for retail and advisor portfolios • Defining the "active" fee budget: Paying for risk management versus paying for traditional stock picking 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

Would you rather Make Money, or Be Right? | 2026 Market Technicals & Trends with Dean Christians

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Dean Christians, founder and lead market strategist at Turning Point Market Research. Recorded May 8th, 2026 Dean shares what he’s learned from his early days in the Chicago Board of Trade options pits and how that "kill or be killed" mentality shaped his highly disciplined, evidence-based approach to technical analysis. We dig into how the market is currently climbing a macro "Wall of Worry," why 52-week lows are the single most critical indicator to monitor in a bull market, and how to use trend persistence and relative strength to find market leaders. The conversation also explores why current weak market breadth feels eerily similar to the stealth bull market of the early 1990s, and why investors must constantly ask themselves the ultimate Ned Davis question: "Do you wanna be right, or do you wanna make money?" 📈 Topics Covered • Lessons from the Chicago Board of Trade pits: Why grit and determination often beat an Ivy League education • Climbing the 2026 "Wall of Worry": The impact of elevated oil prices and interest rates on the Consumer Discretionary and Housing sectors • Dean’s technical framework: Blending macro composite models with absolute trend and relative strength • Why "trend persistence" (consecutive closes above the 10-day moving average) is a massive sign of a healthy market • Debunking the "Sell in May" seasonality myth in favor of pure price action and trend analysis • Why current weak market breadth—driven by rolling stealth corrections—mirrors the grinding bull market of the early 1990s • Understanding sentiment: Why high optimism isn't necessarily a top, because "you need bulls to have a bull market" • Why 52-week lows (not 52-week highs) are the ultimate warning sign to monitor for a major market correction • Non-AI market opportunities: Identifying bullish technical rotations in industrial metals (lithium, copper) and agricultural grains 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

Mr. Waffle House at the Fed | 2026 Market Momentum with Tom Bowley

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Tom Bowley, Chief Market Strategist at Earnings Beats. Recorded 4/30/2026. Tom shares his insights from a recent fantasy stock-picking draft and reveals his powerful strategy of marrying relative strength technicals with strict fundamental filters—specifically, only trading companies that beat revenue and earnings expectations. We dig into why risk management is like piloting a plane, the importance of establishing your exit strategy before the trade goes wrong, his shift from a cautious stance to a bullish outlook after the recent V-shaped market bottom, and why the unprecedented dissension at the Fed has earned Jerome Powell the nickname "Mr. Waffle House." 📈 Topics Covered • Using relative strength to identify and stick with market leaders (like Caterpillar and VIAVI) • Filtering technical breakouts by strictly requiring fundamental revenue and earnings beats • Establishing exit strategies (like the 20-day moving average or strict time limits) before entering a trade • The shift in market conditions that forced a rapid pivot from bearish caution to full bullishness • The "new normal" of V-shaped market bottoms and sharp, fast recoveries • Unprecedented FOMC dissension and why Tom compares Fed Chair Jerome Powell to a great coordinator but a bad head coach • Why gold typically struggles to outperform the S&P 500 when the VIX is low and the US Dollar is strong 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

Reasons are Optional? | Wyckoff Methodology with Bruce Fraser

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Bruce Fraser, an educator, professor, market veteran of 45 years, and world-renowned expert in the Wyckoff Method. Recorded 04/28/2026 Bruce shares his incredible wisdom to help us view the markets through a "Wyckoffian" lens. We dig into the psychology of the "Composite Operator" (the smart money), the mechanics of accumulation and distribution phases, why stocks must be absorbed into "strong hands" to trend higher, and how to conquer the psychological hurdle of paying up for strength once a breakout occurs. We also reflect on the fractal nature of charts, the current reaccumulation structures in semiconductors, and pay tribute to Bruce's mentor, the legendary technical analyst Hank Pruden. Links we discussed during the episode: 📈 Learn more about Bruce's work at https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/ and check out Bruce and Roman Bogomazov's Wyckoff course at https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/demand/basic-charting-course/. 📈 Stan Druckenmiller's interview with Morgan Stanley: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_pk4eBDaLA 📈 Hank Pruden's fantastic book "The Three Skills of Top Trading" : https://amzn.to/49pehQe 📈 Classic trading book "Reminsicences of a Stock Operator": https://amzn.to/4cLZNMG 📈 Topics Covered • Understanding the core premise of the Wyckoff Method and tracking the "Composite Operator" • The law of supply and demand: why stocks must be absorbed by strong hands to trend higher • Breaking down the specific phases (A through E) of market accumulation and distribution • The psychological difficulty of paying for strength and staying in a trend (featuring a great Stanley Druckenmiller anecdote about Nvidia) • The fractal nature of the Wyckoff Method and applying it across multiple timeframes • Identifying "reaccumulation" structures in current 2026 market leaders, such as semiconductors • Honoring the legacy of technical analysis giant Hank Pruden and the Golden Gate University program 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

Market Turbulence Decoded | A Technical Analyst's Perspective with Chris Vermeulen

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Chris Vermeulen, founder of The Technical Traders and author of Asset Revesting. Recorded 04/21/2026 Chris shares his purely technical approach to navigating the 2026 market, highlighting the recent euphoric run and subsequent correction in precious metals. We dig into his "Asset Revesting" philosophy of never holding an asset in a downtrend, why managing a portfolio is exactly like flying an airplane with a damaged wing, the importance of strict discipline over emotional reactions, and why a breakout in the US Dollar Index could trigger the next major market reset for both equities and metals. 📈 Topics Covered • Navigating early 2026 volatility and the controlled equity sell-off around the Strait of Hormuz • The euphoric blow-off top in gold and silver, and Chris's targets for a precious metals reset (down to $40 silver) before the next massive leg up • How piloting an airplane with a damaged wing mirrors disciplined trading, relying on checklists, and strict risk management • The core philosophy of "Asset Revesting": avoiding assets in downtrends and rotating seamlessly into cash, bonds, or currencies • Why following pure price action and trend momentum is superior to trading fundamental news or earnings • Monitoring the US Dollar Index (DXY) at the 100-101 level as a massive potential warning sign for both stocks and precious metals If you enjoyed this interview and are hungry for more, please check out Chris Vermeulen at: https://thetechnicaltraders.com/ [https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbXZjUlhZZS1qNWJjOWp3dUF1TXpEUVpmVkJyZ3xBQ3Jtc0tucENMUjY0RnpXTEF6Mm9hcUFNQ2RsMDlFYWRxTEEyNUVMWHpzZHlabVRLYk5tSnlKb2t3d09ZZ0NfQmFoMGE4YzZ4WFNIR1RqWjdrMzhhTkFGSEdJNGtoSDcxVFpaN2lrRkl6MTBMcjhna3QzU3BHcw&q=https%3A%2F%2Fthetechnicaltraders.com%2F&v=ZKmPLaR6cMA] And check out his book, "Asset Revesting: how to xclusively hold assets rising in value, profit during bear markets, and continue building wealth in retirement." 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.