Markets Happy Hour Podcast - July 16, 2026 A Budget Summer

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - July 16, 2026 A Budget Summer

This week's podcast comes from a somewhat downbeat London after the exit of the England team from the World Cup semi-final last night. It was a tough loss - particularly poignant as the atmosphere had been so electric in London last night. Starting with inflation, the surprisingly low number in June reflects the fall in the oil prices, which continues to be very leveraged to geopolitical news. This is despite expectations actually being higher - per the headline from last week. The oil price is continuing to reflect the low inventories in oil, which are noted to be historically low. The expectation around interest rates is shifting as inflation shifts downwards, although based on the oil price sensitivity this could be premature. There is a fascinating rotation taking place in equity markets - whereby small-cap companies are seeing a strong underpinning of demand - even the negative earning companies. This suggests that there is an ability to see through the hype and to identify potential in smaller companies - at their early growth stage. Other notable trends include the financial sector which has performed exceptionally well as the volume of trading has increased and M&A activity. The economic outlook is bright with a smaller expectation of US recession probability - indicating a buoyant economic outlook sparked by lower inflation and strong earnings. The sharp drop in IBM stock was a telling development - as it was clear from their statement that they were experiencing consumers making choices away from their products in favour of AI expenditure. This could be a harbinger of other choices are likely to make, indicating that pockets are not unlimited and deep. The explosion of complex derivatives, including levered ETFs on single stocks is jolting volatility in markets such as Korea, and as the chart below shows the assets in such instruments have really grown.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast July 9, 2026 - Deja-Vu All Over Again

In this second podcast of the week we are joined by Adam Berger, Multi-Asset Strategist at Wellington. Our conversation reflects on the fact that many of the current news items seem very like "deja-vu" - the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the spike in the oil price, the return of the heat wave. We cycle through our usual five topics and reveal some surprising points of view on inflation, as well as the risks in equity markets. The views expressed are those of the speaker(s) and are subject to change. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. For professional/institutional investors only. Your capital may be at risk.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - July 8, 2026 with special guest Jens Backes in person in Barcelona

**NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE AND DOES NOT CONTAIN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS" This week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a little bit different . . while we still bring you a market overview together with an outstanding guest, this time we are exploring how good some of the AI models are at picking stocks, building portfolios and deciphering equity market narratives. Guest Content Disclosure: This presentation was prepared by Jens Backes, an independent guest speaker, and reflects Jens Backes' opinions as of the presentation date. Moneta has not independently verified the information presented. For educational discussion purposes only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Jens Backes is a former McKinsey consultant with an expertise in telecoms, based in Barcelona, where we recorded this episode. Since October of last year he has challenged 3 models plus his own Alphabot JB to pick 10 stocks to generate the best total return over 5 years. The results are intriguing. From Open AI's portfolio which has gone all in on every aspect of the AI value chain, to Claude which prefers to own tolls and not the road (whatever that means) each model has gone in its own unique direction and not all have beaten the index. We discuss what we can learn from these models in terms of persistence of market narratives and the unexpected winners that can come from such a highly concentrated portfolio. All examples are provided for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to represent all investment decisions or results achieved for client accounts. Client results will vary based on account objectives, restrictions, timing, fees, and market conditions.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast July 2, 2026: Tight Lips; Stopped Ships

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by special guest Roy Kuo, CIO of Galilei Investment Office, and we dive in to a sweeping discussion across global markets. Our conversation starts with a mixed inflation number, whereby consumer prices are driving the sustained inflationary level more than the energy prices, although as one of our charts shows, gasoline prices remain far stickier and less responsive to geopolitical news around the Strait of Hormuz. While jobs numbers continue to be a little sideways, the most recent employment number reflecting a small fall off in employment numbers, but when taken alongside the previous months positive numbers the effect is expected to be marginal. Mortgage rates remain high, which will put pressure on the lower end consumer, although Roy did not expect interest rates to place a stay on economic activity. Moving to equity markets we have just closed the strongest quarters for the Nasdaq and the S&P since 2020, while in contrast Microsoft has seen its worst month since 2020, and gold has seen its worst quarter in 13 years. We turn to the conversation around the frontier models and their relative role compared to the suppliers of compute as well as the proprietary layers, and reference a somewhat memorable recent CNBC appearance of Alex Karp of Palantir who has "said the quiet part out loud" when it comes to the tense relationship between the providers of the frontier models and the companies using them and supplying their data. We finish with another reflection on Alan Greenspan, as Roy's views on his legacy have changed over the years, as he notes. He believes that the damaging effects of the moral hazard created by the Greenspan put are continuing to be felt and that it is leading to a far more risk seeking type of market behaviour.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - June 25, 2028 - Breaking the Mold

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we celebrate the life and times of Alan Greenspan, who died this week at the age of 100. His rich and multi-layered career in which he worked in multiple Presidential administrations and had a close to 19 year tenure as the 18th Chair of the Federal Reserve. The rich phenomena and quotes attributed to him deserve some analysis because of what they teach us about the fabric of markets and the tendency (or not) for patterns to repeat. The first thing to note is the collection of quotes attributed to him, which are in the slides for your viewing pleasure. He clearly relished and practiced the art of deliberate ambiguity in central bank commentary, and coined some pivotal terms, such as “irrational exuberance”. He presided over a relatively stable era, between recessions, in which the triple mandate of low unemployment, low inflation and a low 10 year yield were largely delivered, although there was a challenging “conundrum” towards the end of his tenure when the 10 year yield remained stable despite a steady bout of consecutive rate hikes (17 at one stage). He also gave rise to the Greenspan put, which may have reinforced the concept of “moral hazard” in markets – after 1998 traders believed that Greenspan would step in with monetary easing to steady the stock market. This has been hard to shake and as we saw subsequently in 2008 and during Covid institutions around the world remain ready willing and able to step in most times. The other Greenspan phenomenon was the calling of “irrational exuberance” in markets (pre LTCM in 1997) many years before markets finally cracked in 2000. This is a salutary reminder that markets can be irrational for far longer than one might think. Moving to today’s price action, the oil price has fallen to its pre-war levels, taking some of the sting out of inflation concerns and leading to a fall in the Euro as the pressure on European inflation fell. This echoes a similarly low print in the UK recently, where core inflation had actually fallen into line with the US. The expected rises in Apple device prices came to pass, reflecting a tightened supply of components and upwards pressure on prices. Bonds remained strangely sanguine, both in the UK where a change where the Prime Minister resigned on Monday and the heir apparent looked to be more to the left. The demand for SpaceX bonds was buoyant, particularly as a juicy yield had materialized and the 10 year yield fell in the US as the dollar jumped. There remains divergence in the jobs data alongside other economic indicators although the stock market has continued to sour on some of the Mag 7 stocks – now being referred to as the “Lag Seven). Another interesting data point this week has been the Korean stock market, which I refer to as potentially the “Korea in the Coalmine” as the heightened tech sensitivity in that market led to a steep sell-off by close to 10% earlier in the week. Other notable developments of the week were gold falling to an 8 month low (again reflecting the reversal of the debasement trade) and the fall in Bitcoin to below $60,000.