The 9.2% Number Hiding Inside Retail Sales | S3 E155 | 07-17-26

The 9.2% Number Hiding Inside Retail Sales | S3 E155 | 07-17-26

June retail sales came in close to expectations, with headline growth slowing to 0.2% as gasoline station sales pulled the number down. But strip out food, energy and building materials, and the control group grew 0.5% on the month and is running at a 9.2% annualized pace over the past three months. Megan breaks down what that split actually tells us about the consumer. In this episode, Megan covers: 📊 Why headline retail sales growth slowed to 0.2% in June ⛽ How falling gasoline station sales weighed on the overall number 💪 The control group's 0.5% monthly gain and 9.2% annualized pace 🚗 Strength in motor vehicle and electronics sales, and the inflation caveat that comes with it 😊 Consumer sentiment jumping to its highest reading since February, before the Iran war 💻 Why markets are more focused on AI related weakness in tech and semiconductors right now If you are watching your portfolio and wondering what these numbers mean for your money, this one is worth five minutes of your time. For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.FM #RetailSales #ConsumerSentiment #MarketsWithMegan #ConsumerConfidence #EconomicData #InflationWatch #StockMarket #Earnings #WallStreet #FederalReserve https://youtu.be/uxvULTkblN8 [https://youtu.be/uxvULTkblN8] Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

Biggest PPI Drop Since 2023 | S3 E154 | 07-15-26

The Producer Price Index for June came in much better than expected, with the headline number falling 0.3% instead of holding flat, the biggest monthly decline since October 2023. So what drove the drop? How does it compare to yesterday's CPI report? Why does the softer core reading still leave the Fed with a decision to make? This matters right now because the Fed is weighing whether to hold steady or move again in September, and this report cuts both ways. Energy prices did a lot of the work on the headline number, while core inflation is still stuck above 5% year over year, and rising tension in the Middle East could put oil prices right back in play. In this episode, Megan covers: 📉 Why producer prices fell 0.3% in June, the biggest monthly decline since October 2023 ⛽ How a 6.4% drop in energy prices pulled the headline number down 📊 Why core PPI, stripping out food, energy, and trade, rose just 0.1% against a 0.3% expectation ✈️ What's behind the pullback in portfolio management fees and airline fares 📌 Why core inflation is stuck at 5.1% year over year and what that signals to the Fed 🎯 Why there's still a better than 50% chance of a September rate hike If you're trying to make sense of what these reports mean for the Fed's next move, this one's worth five minutes of your time. For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.FM #PPI #ProducerPriceIndex #Inflation #FedRateHike #InterestRates #Economy #StockMarket #EconomicData #InflationReport #FederalReserve https://youtu.be/u-zY2aLIGi4 [https://youtu.be/u-zY2aLIGi4] Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

CPI Surprise: Inflation Drops 0.4% | S3 E153 | 07-14-26

This week's June CPI report brought a surprise most analysts did not expect. Headline inflation fell 0.4% on a month over month basis, driven almost entirely by a sharp drop in energy and commodity prices. On a year over year basis, headline inflation is still running at 3.5%, but that's down meaningfully from 4.2% a year ago. The timing matters. The Fed's new chairman is testifying before Congress this week, and his prepared remarks stayed hawkish on inflation even as this report showed real progress. Megan breaks down why cooler energy prices, calmer core inflation, and a still cautious Fed leave August rate hike expectations off the table for now, and why tensions in the Middle East could bring volatility back to inflation data in the months ahead. Megan covers:  📉 Why June's 0.4% CPI decline caught most analysts off guard  📊 How core inflation cooled to 2.6% year over year, down from 2.9%  🛢️ What falling energy services costs and easing core services really signal  🏛️ Why the new Fed chair's hawkish testimony didn't budge despite the good news  📅 Why an August rate hike now looks off the table  ⚠️ How tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could still stir inflation volatility If you're trying to make sense of what today's inflation data means for your money, tune in for the full breakdown and subscribe for tomorrow's update on the producer price index. For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.FM [https://marketswithmegan.FM]  #CPIReport #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #CoreInflation #StockMarket #EconomicData #MarketsWithMegan #FedTestimony #OilPrices  https://youtu.be/whHRp2cnMuk [https://youtu.be/whHRp2cnMuk] Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

5 Questions Driving Markets This Summer | S3 E152 | 06-22-26

With markets hitting record highs and a tentative U.S.-Iran ceasefire in place, investors are sitting with a lot of open questions heading into the second half of 2026. In this episode, Megan Horneman works through the five questions she's hearing most from investors right now, from energy prices to Fed policy to what Q2 earnings season might reveal. - What the U.S.-Iran interim ceasefire means for investors, and three key details still unresolved - Why gas prices haven't kept pace with the 30% drop in crude oil, and when that relief may arrive - Why Verdence expects the Fed to raise interest rates in the second half of 2026, starting at 25 basis points - Whether stocks are actually overvalued at record highs, and why current earnings expectations may be too optimistic - What investors should watch in Q2 earnings season, specifically whether AI spending is generating measurable revenue - Why Verdence remains in a buy-on-weakness posture while staying patient on new positions this summer If you're watching your portfolio closely and trying to make sense of a complicated market, this episode gives you a clear-eyed mid-year read. Subscribe so you never miss a weekly update from Megan. For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.FM #MarketsWithMegan #FedRateHike #IranCeasefire #OilPrices #StockMarket2026 #EarningsSeason #AIStocks #InvestingAdvice #MidYearOutlook #marketupdate  https://youtu.be/sXonCJlm59w [https://youtu.be/sXonCJlm59w] Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

The Kevin Warsh Era Has Begun | S3 E151 | 06-17-26

The Fed didn’t raise rates, but the meeting still packed a punch and markets felt it immediately. We break down the first decision under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and why a “no change” outcome can still read as hawkish when the inflation outlook shifts and the Fed changes how it communicates. If you care about interest rates, inflation, bond yields, and what gets priced into markets next, this quick update is built for you.  Megan Horneman digs into the biggest headline beneath the headline: higher projected core inflation in the years ahead, pushing the timeline for getting back toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target. That matters because inflation expectations drive the path of monetary policy, and it helps explain why investors quickly move to price out rate cuts for the year. We also talk through the market reaction right after the statement, including why stocks dipped on the hawkish tilt and why Treasury yields rose as traders adjusted to the new rate path.  Then we zoom in on Warsh’s clear stance against Federal Reserve overcommunication. A shorter statement and the choice not to publish dot plots from the chair signal a new approach: less forward guidance, more flexibility, and more focus on what monetary policy is actually doing. We also cover the task forces Warsh introduces, spanning communications, the Fed balance sheet, data methodology, productivity and jobs in an AI-shifting economy, and potential changes to the inflation framework, including interest in measures like trimmed PCE.  Subscribe for more market-moving takes, share the show with a friend who follows the Fed, and leave a review so more listeners can find us. What do you think: does less Fed guidance make markets calmer or more volatile? https://youtu.be/eLSzFf6Ttpc [https://youtu.be/eLSzFf6Ttpc] Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...