How the US election could shape global credit conditions

Emerging market credit conditions will continue gradual, fragile improvement in 2025

Corporate and sovereign default rates are decreasing as GDP growth, slowing inflation and monetary easing aid debt management. But EMs face a number of credit risks including potential US tariffs. Guest: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody’s Ratings Host: Colin Ellis, Managing Director, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody’s Ratings Related Research: * Emerging Markets – Global: 2025 Outlook - Stable but fragile, with looming credit risks [https://www.moodys.com/research/Emerging-Markets-Global-2025-Outlook-Stable-but-fragile-with-Outlook--PBC_1419160]

How the US election could shape global credit conditions

In this joint Big Picture-Emerging Markets Decoded episode, our regional analysts highlight the key US policy areas to watch in Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America -- and discuss which economies and sectors could be at risk if policies were to dramatically change. Guests: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings; Gong Cheng, Managing Director, Credit Strategy, Moody's Ratings; Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Credit Strategy, Moody's Ratings Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings

Positive credit stories emerging in a handful of Sub-Saharan African countries

Institutional reforms, policy reversals, debt restructurings and the prospect of new hydrocarbon production are leading to gradual improvement in some sovereigns’ creditworthiness from weak levels. Guest: John Walsh, Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings Related Research: * Sovereign – Sub-Saharan Africa: Governance is key to realising credit benefits for new hydrocarbon producers [https://www.moodys.com/research/doc--PBC_1414861] * Sovereign – Sub-Saharan Africa: Institutional reforms are supporting creditworthiness for select sovereigns [https://www.moodys.com/research/doc--PBC_1400317]

Geopolitical risk shapes creditworthiness for host of APAC governments

Risk exposure is highest for those directly involved in the region’s three main hotspots. But the knock-on economic effects of the tensions have the potential to hurt, or help, other APAC governments. Guest: Anushka Shah, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings Related Research: * Sovereigns – Asia-Pacific: Geopolitical risk shapes creditworthiness for a host of governments [https://www.moodys.com/research/Sovereigns-Asia-Pacific-Geopolitical-risk-shapes-creditworthiness-for-a-host-of-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1401671]

Corporate credit quality in India, Indonesia remains robust despite sectoral differences

India's large domestic market shields its companies from external shocks, whereas Indonesia's export-dependent commodity sector prompts government efforts to diversify growth. Guests: Rachel Chua, VP-Senior Analyst; Sweta Patodia, AVP-Analyst Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings Related Research:  * Nonfinancial Companies – India and Indonesia: Credit quality will remain robust, even as earnings trajectory diverges [https://www.moodys.com/research/Nonfinancial-Companies-India-and-Indonesia-Credit-quality-will-remain-robust-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1411893#290612199861c31d1036b185b4e69b75] * Nonfinancial Companies – Southeast Asia Dollar bond issuance will regain momentum when US interest rates begin to fall [https://www.moodys.com/research/Nonfinancial-Companies-Southeast-Asia-Dollar-bond-issuance-will-regain-momentum-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1414461] * Nonfinancial Companies – India: Offshore funding indispensable despite improving domestic liquidity [https://www.moodys.com/research/Nonfinancial-Companies-India-Offshore-funding-indispensable-despite-improving-domestic-liquidity-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1401976#290612199861c31d1036b185b4e69b75]