N N Taleb's Probability Questions (UNOFFICIAL)

Tail risk of contagious diseases: a conversation with coauthor Pasquale Cirillo (2020)

27 min · 11. nov. 2025
episode Tail risk of contagious diseases: a conversation with coauthor Pasquale Cirillo (2020) cover

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Paper in Nature Physics on "the dog wags the tails", how pandemics are fat tailed and the implications.https://www.nature.com/articles/s4156... [https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqa1hpeUZfM2xVdlpGNDhKOUFycTM3cmVpM2tTUXxBQ3Jtc0trRTdBSThpQklzaDZHY21NQklqWXJteXNJcFdlbkg0cDlKTzYyVzhydl9lcWlCSFFUYkdYeUduVUM0RDQyTkctbVJOSmg3NkpRSjU3WWM2Z0RFeEdEdEN0RzQtdWZIa2pHRVFobVJnTV83NHJaY2R0TQ&q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41567-020-0921-x&v=ggrW6qi0qZQ]We also discuss the dangers of verbalistic users of statistical buzzwords without understanding probability s.a. BS vendor Philip Tetlock. They produce one point estimates for distributions with unstable, unknown or infinite moments, which is pseudoscience.We propose basic probability training. “Learn probability for years before learning statistics, or you will hurt yourself”.Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggrW6qi0qZQ

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episode Tail risk of contagious diseases: a conversation with coauthor Pasquale Cirillo (2020) artwork

Tail risk of contagious diseases: a conversation with coauthor Pasquale Cirillo (2020)

Paper in Nature Physics on "the dog wags the tails", how pandemics are fat tailed and the implications.https://www.nature.com/articles/s4156... [https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqa1hpeUZfM2xVdlpGNDhKOUFycTM3cmVpM2tTUXxBQ3Jtc0trRTdBSThpQklzaDZHY21NQklqWXJteXNJcFdlbkg0cDlKTzYyVzhydl9lcWlCSFFUYkdYeUduVUM0RDQyTkctbVJOSmg3NkpRSjU3WWM2Z0RFeEdEdEN0RzQtdWZIa2pHRVFobVJnTV83NHJaY2R0TQ&q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41567-020-0921-x&v=ggrW6qi0qZQ]We also discuss the dangers of verbalistic users of statistical buzzwords without understanding probability s.a. BS vendor Philip Tetlock. They produce one point estimates for distributions with unstable, unknown or infinite moments, which is pseudoscience.We propose basic probability training. “Learn probability for years before learning statistics, or you will hurt yourself”.Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggrW6qi0qZQ

11. nov. 202527 min