Pricing Hopium - Housing, Tariffs and the End of Hope

Will There Be an Election? Burnham, Bond Markets & UK Mortgage Rates │ Propenomix Live

Kier's gone, Andy Burnham is the runaway favourite, and the bigger question for property isn't who runs the country - it's who runs the Treasury. This week Adam works through what a new chancellor means for UK mortgage rates, the housing market and your next move. No tribal economics, no hype - just the numbers and what they mean. There's an election question to settle first, a mortgage backbook converging on new lending rates, Chris Watkin's real-time market data on the withdrawal rate and pricing gap, and a land value tax that could reshape the whole game for a 710-unit portfolio. Plus Trump watch, the macro-scope on mortgage pricing, the "3% world" and the debt, and what Adam is actually buying at 65p in the pound right now. In this episode: (00:00) Kemi's out, Burnham's in - framing the week (08:00) Will there be a general election? Runners and riders (24:00) The real question: who is the next chancellor? (34:00) Trump watch & the world economy (40:00) Chris Watkin's real-time numbers: withdrawal rate & pricing gap (52:00) Mortgage backbook vs new lending (66:00) Inflation, the debt & the "3% world" (78:00) Land value tax: what half a percent really means (84:00) What Adam is buying right now (89:00) KCCO - sign-off ▶ Next workshop - PBW11, central London: Join Adam and Rod for a full day on due diligence - on deals, on JV partners, and on the diligence people will run on you. The only real chance to grab proper time with us. Grab a VIP dinner ticket while they last. Google "Property Business Workshop 11" or use the link in the show notes. Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/ [https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/] Follow Adam on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/] Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence [https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence] More from Propenomix: https://propenomix.com/ [https://propenomix.com/] Workshop: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven [https://www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven]

No Cuts Coming: The Rate Story Flips, and Why the Next Move Is a Hike

The argument was never whether to cut, only how fast. That's gone. There won't be any cuts this year. The next move is a hike, and this episode walks you through exactly why. Part one of a heavier-than-usual week, split into two because it ran close to three hours. This half is pure macro: the war, the rates U-turn, the real-time market, and the gilts. Trump Watch - The ceasefire that isn't. Oil came down on hope value, not supply actually returning, and the physical damage to Hormuz is months of work away even if the politics cooperate. Plus an objective audit of the tariff regime: $264bn raised, the deficit untouched, $166bn ordered back out the door with a $23m-a-day interest penalty. Expensive is a better word than winning. And the framework break at the Fed under new chair Kevin Walsh, who wants to scrap forward guidance and the dot plot in favour of "strategic ambiguity." The Real-Time Market - Chris Watkin's week 22 data, and the first of three independent datasets that all agree on the shape of the market: softening, selectively, not collapsing. Gross sales down 8.9% year on year and down in every single region, outer London off 18%, yet price per square foot still rose 1.7% in a month. Fewer homes selling, the ones that do achieving more per foot. The pounds-per-square-foot index that correlates 98% with the Land Registry, five months ahead. The Inflation Attitude Survey - Rarely covered, more revealing than half the official data. Median inflation expectations up to 5%, the year-ahead figure jumping to 4%, and 53% now expecting rates to rise. Why belief greases the outcome, and why the Bank fears the survey more than a weak GDP print. The Gilts and the MPC Call - The five-year closed at 4.375%, that 6% limited company money still stubbornly in place. Hugh Pill already voted for a hike last time, the first vote for higher rates in nearly three years. The curve now prices a base rate higher in a year than today. Adam gives a member-by-member breakdown of Thursday's vote and lands on 7-2, with 6-3 not far behind. No hype, no sensationalism. The turn is real, but it's a turn, not a screeching handbrake. Build your LTVs, your stress tests, and your fix-versus-tracker calls around the direction, not the exact date. Part two covers the deep dive: four reports on the affordability wall and why building more won't fix it. Listen next. Property Business Workshop - Central London, Wednesday 1st July. Real due diligence: on lenders, on JV partners, on deals, and the DD being run on you. Live exercise, no-holds-barred Q&A, VIP dinner. Tickets selling now: search "Property Business Workshop 11" or visit tinyurl.com/pbweleven Keep calm, listen to the Supplement, and carry on.

Three Weeks of Bad Data and One Orange Man

Back after a four-week break, Adam runs through everything that's moved in the UK property market over the past month, and the picture has shifted. Transactions are now down three weeks running, with last week's sold-subject-to-contract figures off around 9% year on year. Adam explains why the slowdown is showing up in June rather than March: the 90-day decision-in-principle window that locked first-time buyers into sub-4% rates has finally run out, and the new world of 4.75 to 5% is quietly pricing people out. First-time buyers are still 55% of the market, so when their borrowing power drops, everything feels it. Also in this one: • TrumpWatch: how the Iran situation and the oil price are setting inflation expectations and feeding straight into UK swaps • The five-year swap's run up towards 4.4% and back, the 30-year gilt near 5.5%, and why deals are now being modelled on 6 to 6.1% money • The supply glut explained: over-instruction, only 54% of listings actually selling, and a 25% gap between asking and agreed prices • Why nominal house prices are a nonsense, and how, adjusted for RPI, we're sitting back at Q1 2003 • The gearing-up versus gearing-down trap, and a few honest words on what Rich Dad Poor Dad got wrong about "good debt" • London: 20, 30, even 40% discounts appearing, and why this might be the best buying window in a decade if the yield can be made to work • The Labour leadership question, the Makerfield by-election, and what a Burnham win (and his choice of chancellor) could mean for landlords, from a Torsten Bell land value tax to a steadier Pat McFadden • A grounded look at rent controls, what Scotland's "rent cap" actually did, and the difference between stabilisation and a 1970s rent officer Plus a word on the upcoming Property Business Workshop in central London, the only day in the UK dedicated to due diligence, run with Rod Turner and this time with special guest Claude alongside for the live due diligence exercise. Booking link: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven [https://www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven] Read the full Supplement every Sunday on LinkedIn and the Property & Poppadoms website. Keep calm, carry on, and come back every Sunday.

The £76k new-build tax, EPC illusions and why Britain has stopped building

Is the UK property market crashing, or is it just geographically divided? ***CHECK OUT OUR NEXT WORKSHOP: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven [https://www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven]*** In this week's Propenomix Sunday Supplement live version, I dive deep into the unvarnished reality of the UK economy and housing market. I break down the massive 27.4% gap between property listing prices and actual sale prices, the horrifying cratering of the UK construction sector, and exactly why it now costs £76,000 more to build a house than it did in 2020. Plus, I look at the seismic shock of the local elections - what does a Nigel Farage/Reform UK surge mean for landlords, rent controls, and the bond markets? If you are a property investor, developer, or just trying to navigate UK interest rates and inflation, this is the only macroeconomic breakdown you need this week. 👇 SUBSCRIBE & DROP YOUR QUESTIONS IN THE COMMENTS! 👇 In this 1-Hour Live Stream, I cover: Trumpwatch: The US Court blocks global tariffs & the UK local election fallout. The Reality of the High Street: Why 46% of homes are withdrawing unsold. Halifax House Price Index: The brutal North-South property divide. Macro Data: S&P PMIs flash red for construction as supply pipelines dry up. Gilts & Swaps: Why "Higher for Longer" interest rates are locked in. The Deep Dive: How political shifts will impact your property portfolio and EPC illusions. ⏱️ Video Chapters / Timestamps 00:00 - Intro: Welcome to the Sunday Supplement Live! 02:15 - Trumpwatch: Local Election Shocks & Trade War Updates 12:30 - UK Property Market: 637k Listings & The "Hopium" Epidemic 20:45 - The 27.4% Pricing Delusion: Why Half the Market is Failing 28:00 - Halifax House Price Index: Real Terms Shrinkage & The North-South Divide 36:15 - The PMI Horror Show: UK Construction is Cratering 45:00 - Supply Chain Crisis: The £76k "New Build Tax" & Material Costs 51:30 - Gilts, Swaps & Interest Rates: Are We Stuck at 4.5%? 55:20 - The Deep Dive: How Politics & Populism Will Impact Landlords 1:00:00 - Live Q&A and Final Thoughts #Propenomix #AdamLawrence #Property #Business #Economics #Markets ***CHECK OUT OUR NEXT WORKSHOP: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven [https://www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven]***

Pricing Hopium - Housing, Tariffs and the End of Hope

Episode Title: Whisky Carrots, Tech Sticks & The Death of Pricing Hopium Show Notes: Upcoming Event: Before we dive into today's macroeconomic breakdown, a quick reminder: Navigating a market devoid of "pricing hopium" requires airtight analysis. My next Property Business Workshop is coming up, and we are focusing entirely on Due Diligence. If you want to stop guessing and start running the real numbers on your acquisitions, secure your spot now: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven [https://gemini.google.com/app/b09db91517d3ada0] Welcome back to the Propenomix Podcast. In this episode, we are breaking down my latest article and deep-dive: "Whisky Carrots, Tech Sticks, and The Death of Pricing Hopium." We are officially in an era where sentiment and headlines don't pay the bills - structural data, deep economic analysis, and pragmatism do. Today, we cut through the noise to explore the macroeconomic drivers actually influencing UK property returns right now. We discuss what I refer to as "Whisky Carrots" (the genuine, mature incentives and opportunities in the market) versus the "Tech Sticks" (regulatory pressures, EPC targets, and compliance data forcing landlords' hands). Most importantly, we dissect the "Death of Pricing Hopium" - why the era of waiting for zero-interest-rate valuations to magically return is over, and why sellers and investors must finally face the reality of the current economic cycle. If you want to make investment decisions with confidence rather than fear, grab a notebook. It's time to look at the real numbers. CHAPTERS & TIMESTAMPS: * Introduction & Cutting Through the Property Headlines * The Macro Landscape: Inflation, Yields, & The Reality of the Economy * What are "Whisky Carrots"? (Finding Genuine Value & Mature Incentives) * The "Tech Sticks": EPCs, New Regulations, and The Cost of Non-Compliance * The Death of Pricing Hopium: Why Sellers Must Face Reality Now * Capital Flows, Commodities, & Global Macro Trends into 2027 * Adapting Your Property Strategy (Hold, Fold, or Refinance?) * Audience Q&A: 4% Mortgages, Margins, & Portfolio Restructuring * Final Thoughts & How to Read the Sunday Supplement RESOURCES & LINKS: 🎟️ Join the next Property Business Workshop (Focus: Due Diligence): Bulletproof your acquisition strategy by booking your ticket here: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven [https://gemini.google.com/app/b09db91517d3ada0] 📖 Read the original article: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/adamglawrence_propertymarket-macroeconomics-ukhousing-ugcPost-7456620611306606592-7_aZ [https://www.linkedin.com/posts/adamglawrence_propertymarket-macroeconomics-ukhousing-ugcPost-7456620611306606592-7_aZ] ✉️ Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement Newsletter: https://propenomix.com/ [https://propenomix.com/] 💼 Connect with Adam on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/ [https://www.google.com/search?q=https://linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/] ABOUT ADAM LAWRENCE: Adam is the founder of Propenomix, author of the acclaimed Sunday Supplements economic newsletter, and host of the Propenomix Podcast. With a corporate background in wealth management and a property career that started in earnest in 2011, Adam has been involved in over 850+ UK property deals and portfolios. His approach blends real economics, structural data, and practical investor experience to empower you to build strategies that align with real capital markets. Enjoyed the episode? Please hit "Follow" on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen, and consider leaving a rating and review to help spread the word of Propenomix.