Calm before the storm?

Unusual calm in global markets following US attack on Iran

The week kicked off with a jump in oil prices as the US got involved in Middle East tensions, bombing Iranian nuclear facilities with what they call ‘bunker busters’, oil prices jumped at the open, but gains have been given back since then, haven assets don’t show a particular sign of stress... Monday markets look like business as usual. Risks however are looming, and headlines could – maybe – wake up the pessimists?! Listen to find out more!

Calm before the storm?

The worsening global geopolitical weather keeps investors in a cautious mode, and will likely prevent them from taking too much risk before the weekend. While the news that the US is giving itself two weeks to decide whether to intervene in Iran – which is slightly better than earlier reports suggesting they would go in this weekend – has somehow eased tensions, looming uncertainties pushed US and European equities lower yesterday. I’m not sure the US buying itself time can be interpreted as a sign of de-escalation. Energy, defense and haven stocks remain in demand, while investors will certainly refrain from taking too much risk on their shoulders. Listen to find out more!

Risk appetite limited on cautious Fed, rising Middle East worries

‘Someone has to pay,’ said Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell at yesterday’s post-decision presser, after the Fed kept rates unchanged as widely expected – and priced in – by global markets. Stocks fell despite lower yields. The US dollar was in doji mode yesterday but is stronger this morning, perhaps supported by a relatively cautious Fed tone and some flight to safety. There are rumours the US could become directly involved in Middle East tensions as soon as this weekend. That alone could attract defensive flows into the dollar ahead of a potentially critical weekend – regardless of Fed policy. There’s also little reason to pile into risk assets amid such elevated geopolitical risk. If tensions escalate, there’s arguably no better shelter than oil, gold, the US dollar, and the Swiss franc. Today, it’s Bank of England’s (BoE) turn to announce no change, while the Swiss just cut its policy rate to 0%. Listen to find out more!

Fed decides amid uncertain trade outlook, tense Middle East

US stocks sold off, oil and natural gas rallied, and the US dollar gained as US Treasuries and gold attracted safe-haven flows. Mounting tensions between Israel and Iran, alongside Donald Trump’s early departure from the G7 meeting, spurred concerns that the US could become involved in the Middle East crisis. Investors are taking risk off the table, bracing for further escalation and a potential prolongation of tensions with Iran. All this sets the stage for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest policy decision and the release of its updated dot plot later today. The Fed is not expected to change rates at this meeting. The base case remains two rate cuts this year, with the first likely not before September, according to Fed funds futures pricing. While the economic projections and dot plot could shift market expectations, rising geopolitical and trade uncertainties mean the Fed’s growth and inflation forecasts may lack precision, and should be taken with a grain of salt. Listen to find out more!

How could Middle East tensions impact oil prices?

Stocks in Europe and the US rallied as oil and gold retreated yesterday on news that Iran is willing to resume talks on its nuclear program. The market interpreted this as a sign that Iran either has no intention — or possibly no means — to escalate the war, easing concerns about potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which around 20% of global oil and gas flows transit. However, this is not a classic de-escalation story. While Iran appears to be signalling restraint, former President Donald Trump urged the evacuation of Tehran, and Israel has vowed to continue its strikes. As such, energy prices rebound this morning, while equity futures hint at bearish session. What could happen from here, and how energy markets could impacted? Listen to find out more?