Escalation (again) | Robert Pape

Escalation (again) | Robert Pape

The past week has shattered whatever faith remained in that Memorandum of Understanding. The United States and Iran have once again exchanged strikes, with the U.S. military saying it hit 90 military targets, though Tehran claims many of those sites were civilian. The Iranian military, meanwhile, says it has retaliated by targeting U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan. What’s now likely to happen? Has the renewed fighting vindicated Professor Robert Pape’s escalation trap?  On Ukraine, Professor Pape contends that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s campaign has become a strategic failure and that Ukraine is gaining the upper hand, including in Crimea. We put to Professor Pape the counterarguments advanced by Professors John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs, both of whom argue that Russia retains the strategic advantage and is likely to prevail in a prolonged ground war of attrition. Robert Pape is Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and author of the Substack The Escalation Trap. His forthcoming book is Our Own Worst Enemies: America and the Age of Violent Populism. Join Tom's Exclusive Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/cff5e11f69a3/switzerland-with-tom-switzer Read Tom's Substack: https://substack.com/@tomswitzer Tom Switzer is a journalist and broadcaster who has been a prolific commentator on politics and international affairs. His writing and commentary have appeared in outlets including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times (international), The Australian, and across ABC and Sky News, where he has been a regular presenter and panellist. For 30 years, since 1995, he has worked at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, the Australian Financial Review, The Australian, the London-based Spectator magazine, and the Sydney-based Centre for Independent Studies, which he headed from 2017 to 2025. He is the host of Switzerland, a long-form interview series exploring global politics, modern history, and the ideas shaping the world.

Are we heading back to war? | John Mearsheimer & Doug Bandow

No one expected diplomacy to proceed without setbacks. But there was hope that the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the United States and Iran in late June, vague though it was, would create enough political space to allow commercial shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz. The events of the past few days have been a reminder of just how fragile that ceasefire remains. What kind of challenge does this pose to efforts to turn that initial memorandum into a more durable peace agreement? To what extent has the U.S. foreign policy establishment been, to coin a neoconservative phrase, mugged by reality? Will the Iran debacle encourage Washington policy elites to place less emphasis on not just the Persian Gulf but also Europe and Asia?   Today’s guests are John Mearsheimer from the University of Chicago and Doug Bandow from the Cato Institute, the leading libertarian think tank in Washington.

Can the US-Iran peace deal hold? | John Mearsheimer & Trita Parsi

Whether the memorandum of understanding ultimately survives political opposition in Tehran, Washington and Jerusalem remains to be seen. What is clear is that the latest tensions over the Strait of Hormuz is a reminder of how fragile the situation remains in the Persian Gulf and how uncertain the prospects are for a durable peace. Will Donald Trump follow through on his threats that the United States could become the “guardian angel” of the Strait of Hormuz? Could recent White House criticism of the Jewish state mark the contours of an effort to de-specialise the US-Israel relationship? Such a stance no doubt causes panic in much of Washington, but will it resonate with Middle America, especially among younger demographics?    Today’s guests are John Mearsheimer from the University of Chicago and Trita Parsi from the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

Bolton & Izadi on the US-Iran Memo

President Trump’s memorandum of understanding with Iran has been hailed by supporters as a diplomatic breakthrough and denounced by critics as a strategic retreat. But what does the agreement actually achieve, and who, if anyone, emerges stronger from months of conflict? Tom Switzer speaks with two guests with profoundly different perspectives: former U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton, one of Washington’s most prominent foreign-policy thinkers, and Professor Foad Izadi, Associate Professor of American Studies at the University of Tehran and a leading Iranian commentator on U.S.-Iran relations. Together they offer sharply contrasting assessments of the agreement, its implications for the Middle East, and whether it brings the region any closer to a durable peace.

Trump's Iran Deal | Trita Parsi

The U.S. and Iran have agreed to a peace deal on Sunday June 14. Washington will lift the naval blockade while Tehran opens the Strait of Hormuz. Will it hold? Will Israel and Washington hardliners try to sabotage the agreement? Will the Iranian hardliners try to scuttle the deal? Trita Parsi is executive director of the Quincy Institute.  Support Trita Parsi: https://tritaparsi.substack.com/ Join Tom's Exclusive Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/cff5e11f69a3/switzerland-with-tom-switzer Read Tom's Substack: https://substack.com/@tomswitzer Tom Switzer is a journalist and broadcaster who has been a prolific commentator on politics and international affairs. His writing and commentary have appeared in outlets including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times (international), The Australian, and across ABC and Sky News, where he has been a regular presenter and panellist. For 30 years, since 1995, he has worked at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, the Australian Financial Review, The Australian, the London-based Spectator magazine, and the Sydney-based Centre for Independent Studies, which he headed from 2017 to 2025. He is the host of Switzerland, a long-form interview series exploring global politics, modern history, and the ideas shaping the world.