The BeCuz Podcast

Episode 3: "Trump 2.0" Who could have predicted this?

Cuz Will discusses a hand he played in a $1/3 live Casino Niagara game. Limping behind with A9s in a multiway pot the cousins discuss the perils of conforming to everyone else and playing too passively Then Cuz Rich and Cuz Will look into the various ways predictions for the 2024 presidential election went wrong. Many polls thought it was going to be too close to call and end in favour for Harris. But it ended up a modern day landslide for Trump, something few would’ve predicted after Trumps loss in 2020, his two impeachments, Jan 6, and all of Trump’s post presidency legal troubles. The cousins do a a deep dive into the analysis of the polls (@NateSilver538), the betting markets (@Polymarket), fundamental approaches (@AllanLichtman 13 Keys) and new models combing all of these factors (@HarryDCrane). 36:33 Polls 2016 predicting No to Brexit referendum 39:10 BEC = call / (pot+bet+call) = 1:4 = 20% probability of No vote 45:40 Nate Silver and the rise of FiveThirtyEight (538) in the Obama era and fall in the 2016 Trump-Clinton election 1:06:00 FiveThirtyEight retreats to ball swarm graphical structure… more of a hedged prediction 1:18:08 Silver Bulletin 2024 final prediction 1:23:20 Harry Crane trolling Nate Silver 1:26:47 Harry Crane 2024 “super model” for election prediction 1:34:40 Polymarket 2024 Election 1:40:50 Polymarket and the Mike Tyson vs. Logan Paul fight 2:13:00 Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys Fundamental Model 2:19:00 Nate Silver’s post election modal map 2:24:30 Signal vs. Noise  Liner Notes… 1. How the pollsters got Brexit wrong. https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-eu-referendum-pollsters-wrong-opinion-predict-close [https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-eu-referendum-pollsters-wrong-opinion-predict-close] 2. What is Polymarket? https://youtu.be/GvT_Fycvt14?si=IK0BJmrz4JVaNKKC [https://youtu.be/GvT_Fycvt14?si=IK0BJmrz4JVaNKKC] 3. Nate Silver interview of Polymarket’s Shayne Coplan https://youtu.be/DOVPtrkKbBU?si=YRWAfnYBQLHZwqpg [https://youtu.be/DOVPtrkKbBU?si=YRWAfnYBQLHZwqpg] 4. Silver Bulletin Final 2024 Election Prediction https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model [https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model] 5. Harry Crane’s Final 2024 Election Prediction https://www.thesupermodel.com/p/so-whats-it-going-to-be?utm_medium=android&triedRedirect=true [https://www.thesupermodel.com/p/so-whats-it-going-to-be?utm_medium=android&triedRedirect=true] 6. Silver Bulletin post election retrospective “model” analysis: https://www.natesilver.net?utm_source=navbar&utm_medium=web [https://www.natesilver.net?utm_source=navbar&utm_medium=web] 7. Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House fundamentals model for election prediction https://www.american.edu/cas/news/13-keys-to-the-white-house.cfm [https://www.american.edu/cas/news/13-keys-to-the-white-house.cfm] 8. Noise A flaw in human judgment. Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Simony, Cass R Sunstein. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noise:_A_Flaw_in_Human_Judgment [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noise:_A_Flaw_in_Human_Judgment]

Episode 2: Extra Poker Analysis from the Cyberpunk 2024 Episode

Cuz Will goes into a little more detail about the solver analysis he did for EP2 in particular the assumptions he had to make with GTO Wizard. These assumptions may make generalizing the solver results back to the hand a little less valid. Some significant differences Will points out: smaller pre flop bet sizing, a wider preflop raising range for Gerry and a limit to being heads up (Gerry vs. Nick) post-flop.

Bonus Episode 1: “How I became an Urban Planner” Brendan and Adrian explore Ergodicity

Guest Host Brendan talks with Adrian Litavski, owner and Managing Partner of Johnston Litavski Ltd. What started as a school project unfolds into a fascinating discussion on Adrian’s path towards becoming an urban planner. While this conversation is certainly useful to anyone interested in Urban Planning as a career, it also provides insight to young people on how to navigate their future. Sometimes you don’t end up where you expected… and sometimes that’s even better. Liner Notes... 1. https://www.planners.to/ [https://www.planners.to/] 2. Adrian Litavski’s @LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/adrian-litavski-48069b2/?originalSubdomain=ca [https://www.linkedin.com/in/adrian-litavski-48069b2/?originalSubdomain=ca]

Episode 2: "Cyberpunk 2024" Is anyone safe in the digital age?

Welcome to the podcast Gerry Gill, lawyer and Partner at Whitelaw Twining and expert in legal and insurance aspects of cybersecurity. Gerry was recently named to the 2025 Edition of the @BestLawyers in Canada. Cuz Rich and Cuz Will break down a poker hand Gerry played at a recent low stakes home cash game. Can folding a monster top two pair be right? Is Gerry already pot committed? Then Cuz Will and Cuz Rich explore with Gerry the murky world of cybersecurity. Who are these threat actors and what’s the game theory behind negotiating with them? What’s worth negotiating for? Gerry deep dives discussing the differences between goals such as data suppression and encryption keys as well as a whole lot more in this comprehensive discussion on all things cybersecurity. Time Stamps: 00:52 Gerry and Rich coincidentally find themselves sitting together at a concert 05:15 Gerry’s poker hand setup 46:22 Solver analysis from GTOWizard 57:00 Gerry a co-author for a Canadian textbook on Cybersecurity 59:02 Rich ask’s Gerry about the CrowdStrike breach 1:02:00 Gerry explains how an incident response evolves in different attack types: encryption lockout, theft of private data, redirecting funds 1:05:00 Gerry discusses IT type protections: phishing education, fire walls, strong passwords, 2FA, etc. 1:07:20 Humans are the vulnerability weak point in any organization's cybersecurity strategy 1:10:30 Will says most healthcare quality insurance models are taken from the airline industry which tries not to rely on human fallibility 1:13:00 Gerry discusses the fragmented network approach to limit how much is at risk for any given breach 1:15:38 Rich brings up the increase in “spoofing” sophistication 1:18:24 The second wave of cyberattacks - crypto key lockouts and ransom demands 1:18:47 The third wave of cyberattacks - social engineering and reconnaissance for future exploits 1:23:23 AI enhanced deepfakes will fool any human 1:28:49 Back to analogue as a defence? As a way of threat actors to attack? 1:35:01 Where is your data actually stored… where are your servers? 1:43:04 Ransomware: to pay or to not pay... a prisoner’s dilemma? 1:51:00 Gerry says some threat actors are more trustworthy and/or competent than others 1:53:20 Canadian laws requiring duty to notify make paying for data suppression less worthwhile 2:08:00 Sometimes the costs of being locked out force you to pay the encryption key ransom 2:09:10 Encryption Key Proof of Life 2:21:16 Threat Actors… any Robin Hoods out there? Gerry says they're rare 2:33:33 Can “I’m Bad Assitron” from Transformers be a solution? 2:43:40 Were the exploding pagers against Hezbollah a form of cyberattack? 1:43:20 Important Disclaimer: the BeCuz Podcast and discussions here with  Gerry Gill should NOT be considered legal advice. If you or your organization is having cybersecurity issues you should consult your own attorney, insurance provider and IT Department. Liner Notes... 1. https://wt.ca/people/gerry-gill/ [https://wt.ca/people/gerry-gill/] 2. Gerry Gill’s @LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/gerry-gill-87031314/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/gerry-gill-87031314/] 3. https://www.bestlawyers.com/lawyers/gerry-gill/397426 [https://www.bestlawyers.com/lawyers/gerry-gill/397426] 4. Alex @Kanupoker Millar’s pre flop ranges from his excellent course on advanced cash game strategy at @UpsingPoker: https://upswingpoker.com/advanced-cash-game-strategy-with-kanu7/ [https://upswingpoker.com/advanced-cash-game-strategy-with-kanu7/] 5. @GTOWizard solver analysis used during the breakdown

Episode 1: "Apes Together Strong!" When the Apes went to war with the Bears on Wall Street

Cousin Rich interviews Cousin Will on a key poker hand he played at the WSOP International Circuit event hosted by @GreatCandianTO on March 28, 2024. Then Cuz Will interviews Cuz Rich on his deep dive into the meme stock phenomenon (GME, r/wallstreetbets Keith Gill aka Roaring Kitty/DFV, Robin Hood, Citadel, SEC, etc.) Can the cousins find some connection between the two? Liner Notes... 1. Will’s Hendon Mob: https://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=532985 [https://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=532985] 2. Daniel Negreanu @RealKidPoker back in Toronto: https://x.com/RealKidPoker/status/1774475726458085487 [https://x.com/RealKidPoker/status/1774475726458085487] 3. Doug Polk @DougPolkVids kinda actually doesn’t believe in ICM (1:41): https://youtu.be/3Sad4czRDjM?si=t6mFEZnPU7CXP1D_ [https://youtu.be/3Sad4czRDjM?si=t6mFEZnPU7CXP1D_] 4. Demetri Kofinas @kofinas on financial nihilism: https://youtu.be/dbAZY5DracY?si=NrkDaraLnouJc-kP [https://youtu.be/dbAZY5DracY?si=NrkDaraLnouJc-kP]