The ELEVEN: US Markets

DEAL OR NO DEAL - The Market Holds Its Breath

THE ELEVEN: US Markets | Episode 8 : "DEAL OR NO DEAL - The Market Holds Its Breath"  Key Themes - 1. THE DEAL THAT CHANGES EVERYTHING: Trump announced Saturday that a US-Iran peace deal is 'largely negotiated.' If signed and if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices fall, inflation pressure eases, the Fed gets breathing room, and equities could rally hard. But key sticking points - Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions, and uranium, remain unresolved. Watch Monday morning. 2. THE BOND MARKET IS SCREAMING: The 30-year Treasury yield sat above 5% mid-week, a level last seen in 2007.Moody's just downgraded US debt. Congress just passed a bill adding $3.8 trillion to the deficit. The bond market is sending a clear fiscal warning that equities are choosing to ignore, for now. 3. NVIDIA IS THE AI ECONOMY: $81.6B in Q1 revenue, $91B guided for Q2. The AI infrastructure buildout is the most powerful structural force in markets. But investors must separate companies with real AI revenue from pure narrative plays. Nvidia itself proved this week that even perfection isn't enough to avoid a sell-the-news reaction. 4. EIGHT WEEKS UP- BUT NOT WITHOUT CRACKS: The S&P's 8-week winning streak is impressive but was tested by volatile sessions mid-week. Fear & Greed has flipped toGreed after weeks in Fear. That sentiment turnaround creates vulnerability-complacency is the enemy of portfolio protection.

THE WARSH FACTOR - New Chair, Hot Inflation, and the AI Gold Rush

THE ELEVEN: US Markets: Week 20, May 12-17, 2026 The Warsh Factor: A new Fed chair inheriting 3.8% inflationand an energy shock. Hawkish by instinct but open to cuts if inflation falls. With CPI this hot, that flexibility is theoretical. Watch his first public comments closely. AI Boom vs. Energy Shock: The Cerebras IPO illustrates thebifurcation , AI infrastructure is real and growing fast. But the same economy faces energy-driven inflation that could force rate hikes. These forces are on a collision course. The Stagflation Watch: Real wages now negative. Goldman,Moody's, and OECD all have recession/stagflation probabilities above 30%. The Fed is frozen between high inflation and slowing growth. Trump-Xi: Deferred, Not Resolved: The hardest issues -tariffs, chips, Taiwan, kicked to September and beyond. Uncertainty premium stays in the market until then.

ALL-TIME HIGHS, HALF-TIME PEACE!!

Episode 6 | Week 19 | May 4 – May 8, 2026  The Teflon Market: Six straight weekly gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the longest streak since 2024, driven entirely by strong corporate earnings. The market is choosing profits over geopolitics, at least for now. The Iran Halfway Point: Operation Epic Fury is officially concluded, a deal framework is emerging : 12-15 yearnuclear enrichment moratorium in exchange for sanctions relief and Hormuz reopening, but no signatures yet. Oil is down from $111 to $95, but the Strait is still partially blockaded. The Fed Transition: Powell's era ends May 15th. Warsh is expected to be confirmed this week. His first FOMC meeting is June 17th. The market expects a more dovish stance. The risk: cutting too early into still-elevated inflation repeats the errors of 2021–22. CPI Tuesday: April CPI on May 12th is the single most important data point of the month. Above 3.2% = yields jump, tech sells off. Below 3.0% = risk-on rally, rate cut hopes revive.Watch core CPI especially, if services inflation is rising, it's not just an oil shock anymore. Trump-Xi Summit: May 14-15 in Beijing. Iran will dominate. Boeing aircraft purchases and soybean commitments expected. A 'Board of Trade' managed framework is on the table.Don't expect a tariff breakthrough; but don't underestimate the oil diplomacy angle. This week in THE ELEVEN: Markets just posted their sixth consecutive weekly gain, with the S&P 500 closing at a record 7,399 and theNasdaq surging 4.5% to 26,247. But record highs are only part of the story.Johan Durden and Tyla Didrikson unpack what's really driving this rally and what could derail it. This week's eleven stories cover: the April jobs report beat (115K vs 55K forecast), AMD's revenue surprise, Datadog's 28% surge on AI cloud demand, Corning's Nvidia supply deal, a fresh low in US consumer confidence (48.2), the Federal Reserve's final meeting under Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh's imminent confirmation as the new Fed Chair, the Iran ceasefire progress and the emerging nuclear deal framework, oil pricesfalling from $111 to $95, the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in Beijing (May 14-15), and why Tuesday's April CPI print could set the tone for the entire summer. Whether you're managing a portfolio or just trying to understand what's moving markets this week, THE ELEVEN gives you real analysis in real time : No jargon, No padding, No agenda!

MAG 7 COMET — Records, Reads & a Fed Farewell

Episode 5 | Week 18 | April 28 – May 2, 2026  This week Wall Street hit record highs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq both at all-time closes, even as oil spiked toward multi-year records and the Strait of Hormuz remained 90% shut. The Engine: a blowout Magnificent Seven earnings week. Meta revenue +33%, Apple posted its best March quarter ever and a $100 billion buyback, AWS grew 28%, Alphabet's Search accelerated. S&P earnings growth is now tracking at 27.8% for Q1 , the strongest since 2021. Johan and Tyla break it all down in eight tight minutes. Plus: Jerome Powell's dramatic final Fed meeting, a rare 4-way FOMC dissent, Kevin Warsh's path to the chairmanship, the UAE's seismic OPEC exit, Iran's 14-point peace proposal, SpaceX's confirmed June IPO targeting $1.75T, and what OpenAI's revenue miss means for the AI investment thesis. Looking ahead: May 8 jobs report, May 13 CPI, and the Hormuz deal that could change everything. THE ELEVEN: US Markets - Eleven stories, Zero fluff!!

All-Time High, All-Time Anxiety!!

THE ELEVEN: US Markets | Ep. 4| "ALL-TIME HIGH, ALL-TIME ANXIETY" Week 17| April 21–25, 2026 Records on Wall Street. Dread on Main Street. This week the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit all-time highs — and yet consumer confidence just hit its lowest level in history. Johan and Tyla break down the paradox, the earnings fireworks, and the most consequential data week of 2026 that starts right now. Why this episode matters: The data week starting April 28th - FOMC decision, Big Tech Q1 results, and the first GDP print of 2026 will set the tone for the entire second half of the year. This episode is your complete briefing before it all lands. THE ELEVEN is your essential weekly US markets briefing Eleven critical stories, sharp analysis, zero fluff. New episodes every week. ⚠️ For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial professional. This episode was produced with AI assistance for data research and synthesis.